Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Midwest flood price tag $8 billion; Extreme Weather magazine review

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 16:54 GMT le 27 juin 2008

The American Farm Bureau, a lobbying group that represents American farmers, estimated yesterday that crop damage from the Midwest's Flood of 2008 has amounted to $7 billion. More than half of this total--$4 billion--was in Iowa. Other states taking a hit from excessive wetness and flooding were: Illinois, $1.3 billion; Missouri, $900 million; Indiana, $500 million; Nebraska $500 million; and an additional $1 billion in remaining wet states. When added to the at least $1 billion in property damage the floods wrought (including $762 million in Cedar Rapids, Iowa), the $8 billion price tag of the Midwest Flood of 2008 ranks as the second most expensive U.S. non-hurricane flooding disaster on record. America's worst flood, the Midwest Flood of 1993, caused $26.7 billion in damage (adjusted to 2007 dollars).

The damage will continue to rise in coming days, as major flooding continues along the Mississippi and Missouri Rivers. A levee broke along the Mississippi just north of St. Louis this morning, sending flood waters towards the small town of Winfield. Heavy rains in excess of five inches have hit much of northern Missouri this week (Figure 1), and NOAA's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center is forecasting a high probability of heavy rain in the region today through Saturday morning. The culprit is a slow-moving low pressure system over Minnesota, which will drag a cold front through Missouri tonight. An additional 2-4 inches of rain will fall in some areas along the front. The additional rain should keep the Mississippi and Missouri Rivers in Missouri above flood stage for an extra day or two. Currently, these rivers are expected to reach their highest crests sometime between Monday June 30 and Wednesday July 2. The forecast looks somewhat drier for the Midwest next week, thankfully. The jet stream has regularly been taking a major dip southward into the Central U.S. the past two months, putting the favored track for rainy low pressure systems over the Midwest. The jet often gets "stuck" in a high-amplitude trough-ridge pattern which causes drought in one part of the country (California in this case) and floods in another. This "stuckness" often lasts for 3 months. The current 2-week forecast from the GFS and ECMWF models predicts a continuation of the "stuck" jet stream pattern, but decreasing in amplitude and sliding more to the east. This should result in the favored storm track moving more towards the East Coast, relieving flooding in the Midwest.

Figure 1. Precipitation for the 7 days ending on Friday, June 27, at 8am EDT. Image credit:NOAA.

Review of the new magazine, Extreme Weather

A beautiful new weather magazine called Extreme Weather has hit the bookstores this month. Published by Astronomy magazine, the new magazine features some truly spectacular weather photos, including a 12-page "Weathergallery" with awesome shots of tornadoes, lightning, floods, supercells, hail, hurricane winds, and waterspouts. The first article of the magazine features the equally fantastic photos of storm chaser Warren Faidley, who also happens to be the best writer among professional storm chasers, in my opinion. Additional articles in Extreme Weather include a balanced and interesting look at the hurricanes/global warming connection, plus some quality articles on dust storms, super cell thunderstorms, lightning, and the Great Galveston Hurricane of 1900.

Extreme Weather is not yet a regular publication; the editors are gauging interest to see if they wish to make it so. I whole-heartedly encourage them to do so--this magazine rocks! You can order a copy at their website, it's $7.95.

Tropics
It's quiet in the tropical Atlantic. There are no threat areas to discuss, and none of the models are forecasting tropical storm formation in the next seven days.

Jeff Masters

500 Year Flood 2008 (UlaratheBard)

Iowa Flooding - Palo Iowa - The entire town of Palo Iowa was evacuated and was told to abandon due to flooding during the recent flooding of the the Cedar River and local water ways. During it's abandonment it was under military control. A week later the towns folk were allowed to re-enter their town to assess damage and begin clean-up. The town was devasted as you can see. Due to the fact the entire town was under water, their have been no coordinated efforts for donations, volunteer work, etc... plus, they've just been allowed back into their town and only during daytime hours. I'm sure they could use all the help they could get.

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1252. IKE 16:05 GMT le 29 juin 2008
1250. JFV 11:03 AM CDT on June 29, 2008 Hey IKE, how far is the latest GFS run already bud? 78 hours Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

1253. thelmores 16:06 GMT le 29 juin 2008
I agree Pat.... with those eddy's in the gulf, and warm waters in the Caribbean.... Member Since: 8 septembre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3748

1254. philliesrock 16:06 GMT le 29 juin 2008
The GFS is out to 96 hours and shows a weak low. Member Since: 29 juin 2006 Posts: 65 Comments: 3197

1255. Patrap 16:06 GMT le 29 juin 2008
GOES-12 Atmospheric Imagery Link Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111607

1257. Tazmanian 16:07 GMT le 29 juin 2008
96E.INVEST is on the navy site Member Since: 21 mai 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111359

1259. thelmores 16:08 GMT le 29 juin 2008
102f forecast High for Boise! Dog days are here..... middle of the day is nap time! LOL Member Since: 8 septembre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3748

1260. Patrap 16:08 GMT le 29 juin 2008
Thats about all us spectators can do JFV. Watch and wait. But take the added time to Prepare for a Major Hit. One can always tweak ones own plan. Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111607

1261. pearlandaggie 16:08 GMT le 29 juin 2008
Pearland heat index: Heat Index: 117 °F / 47 °C it's a dry heat, man! Member Since: 14 septembre 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963

1263. ShenValleyFlyFish 16:10 GMT le 29 juin 2008
I take E: to early to make an informed prediction so your guess is as good as mine, probably better. Bid 1 crow. Member Since: 9 septembre 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4684

1264. Patrap 16:10 GMT le 29 juin 2008
Official forecast aint the Highly touted GFS jp.. LOL Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111607

1265. pearlandaggie 16:10 GMT le 29 juin 2008
time for a dip in the pool..bbl Member Since: 14 septembre 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963

1267. SpaceThrilla1207 16:10 GMT le 29 juin 2008
CURRENT TALLY Crow Pot: 6 NorthxCakalaky, SpaceThrilla - A Orcasystems - D JFV, Nolehead, Pearlandaggie - Z We Need More Enterers! Just Enter By Posting A Letter from the List at the Top of Page 25!

1268. IKE 16:11 GMT le 29 juin 2008
Heavy thunderstorms moving into Okaloosa county,FL...Fort Walton Beach...Crestview...keep an eye to the sky.... Link Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

1270. thelmores 16:13 GMT le 29 juin 2008
I hear you pearl.... we are at 90f with 70% humidity..... break out a sweat just walking out to the mailbox and back! LOL Member Since: 8 septembre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3748

1272. pearlandaggie 16:14 GMT le 29 juin 2008
space, i think mine was more like A than Z, LOL Member Since: 14 septembre 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963

1273. Tazmanian 16:14 GMT le 29 juin 2008
Member Since: 21 mai 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111359

1274. Patrap 16:15 GMT le 29 juin 2008
GFS Insight always a good peek. Its getting to be Tropical Time soon I believe too. Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111607

1275. IKE 16:16 GMT le 29 juin 2008
GFS doesn't do much through 108 hours near Africa..... Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

1276. IKE 16:28 GMT le 29 juin 2008
Make that 156 hours... Next!!! Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

1277. stormlvr 16:29 GMT le 29 juin 2008
Try looking at levels above the surface. The wave has approximately the same timing. Member Since: 12 août 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 323

1280. IKE 16:35 GMT le 29 juin 2008
Fixing to storm at my house.... Thunderstorms Moving In Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

1281. SpaceThrilla1207 16:35 GMT le 29 juin 2008
What do you mean by "Next!"? Also, some of you might be entertained by my new blog. I just wrote what I believe to be a fascanating story on the second comment. I didn't even realize I was going this far about myself until I made my post.

1282. eye 16:36 GMT le 29 juin 2008
the models giveth, and the models takith away..... Member Since: 21 août 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 147

1283. JLPR 16:38 GMT le 29 juin 2008
SpaceThrilla1207 I would say C =) Member Since: 4 septembre 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223

1285. SpaceThrilla1207 16:40 GMT le 29 juin 2008
CURRENT TALLY Crow Pot: 7 NorthxCakalaky, SpaceThrilla - A JLPR - B Orcasystems - D JFV, Nolehead, Pearlandaggie - Z We Need More Enterers! Just Enter By Posting A Letter from the List at the Top of Page 25!

1286. JLPR 16:42 GMT le 29 juin 2008
aww I said C not B lol =P Member Since: 4 septembre 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223

1287. stoormfury 16:44 GMT le 29 juin 2008
CATL WAVE Link Member Since: 22 août 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2304

1288. JLPR 16:49 GMT le 29 juin 2008
looks like the 00Z CMC and the 06Z GFS are in agreement =O but with the CMC now involved, it makes me wonder if it will actually form lol =D Member Since: 4 septembre 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223

1289. IKE 16:49 GMT le 29 juin 2008
Special Weather Statement Statement as of 11:32 AM CDT on June 29, 2008 ... A significant weather alert is in effect for central and northern Walton County in the eastern Florida Panhandle... * until 1215 PM CDT At 1128 am CDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near Dorcas... or 15 miles west of De Funiak Springs... moving east at 30 mph. This storm will be near... De Funiak Springs by noon CDT. Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph are possible with this storm. Winds of this strength can down tree limbs and knock over other unsecured outdoor objects. Also... frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Move indoors immediately! Lightning is one of natures number one killers. Remember... if you can hear thunder... you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Relay reports of significant weather to the National Weather Service in Tallahassee at (8 5 0) 9 4 2 8 8 3 3. Or... you may contact the nearest law enforcement agency or your County emergency management. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service. Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

1290. stormlvr 16:50 GMT le 29 juin 2008
The models should move towards a consensus presentation of the wave and any potential surface feature as we get closer to the event. The depiction on the ECMWF and UKMET has been weaker than the GFS which I believe is reasonable to expect. The GFS may also be having issues resolving the energy within the trof extending off the African coast. Member Since: 12 août 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 323

1291. IKE 16:51 GMT le 29 juin 2008
Plenty of energy at my house...heavy thunderstorm and 73 degrees. Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

1292. Tazmanian 16:53 GMT le 29 juin 2008
when we talk about the models runs and all of that why not tell ues where it will go has well Member Since: 21 mai 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111359

1293. NC0WX0Man 16:56 GMT le 29 juin 2008
Is there a low pressure already associated with the wave currently pushing off of Africa or no?

1294. stormlvr 16:58 GMT le 29 juin 2008
1292. Tazmanian 4:53 PM GMT on June 29, 2008 when we talk about the models runs and all of that why not tell ues where it will go has well That would be nice to know LOL Member Since: 12 août 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 323

1296. JRRP 16:59 GMT le 29 juin 2008
Very windy here in Dominican Republic Link Member Since: 16 août 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4315

1297. IKE 17:03 GMT le 29 juin 2008
The National Weather Service in Tallahassee has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Holmes County in the Panhandle of Florida... this includes the city of Bonifay... eastern Walton County in the Panhandle of Florida... this includes the city of De Funiak Springs... Washington County in the Panhandle of Florida... this includes the cities of... Vernon... Chipley... * until 1245 PM CDT * at 1149 am CDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a line of severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds in excess of 60 mph. These storms were located along a line extending from 15 miles north of De Funiak Springs to 10 miles east of De Funiak Springs to 15 miles northeast of Santa Rosa Beach... and moving east at 27 mph. * Severe thunderstorms will be near... Vernon by 1230 PM CDT... Bonifay by 1240 PM CDT... Chipley by 1245 PM CDT... In addition to large hail and damaging winds... scattered cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Move indoors immediately! Lightning is one of natures number one killers. Remember... if you can hear thunder... you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Relay reports of severe weather to the National Weather Service in Tallahassee at (8 5 0) 9 4 2 8 8 3 3. Or... you may contact the nearest law enforcement agency or your County emergency management. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 600 PM CDT Sunday evening for southeast Alabama and central Florida and southwestern Georgia. Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

1298. weathermanwannabe 17:08 GMT le 29 juin 2008
Afternoon; nice thundershowers over Tallahassee for the last 2 hours; Just got my power back at the house (out an hour and one half) and it was no major inconvenience (compared to major flood and hurricane victims)....Got a chance for some "quiet" time with the Wife and Kids and read Jack and the Beanstock with my 7 year old in the dark quiet house.....It was a nice change.....But for the destructive power of severe wind/rain events, it was really nice to have the TV/Power off and people talking to each other....Kind of like that weird "calm" after a hurricane strike (hot as hell but beautiful nights with no lights to drown out the stars).....As excited as I get during hurricane season (the equivalent of Summer School for me when I participate every Summer on the Blog), I do not wish the destructive part of storms on anyone, but, a little wind and rain and no lights for a few hours is cool..... Member Since: 8 août 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 6703

1299. clamshell 17:10 GMT le 29 juin 2008
SpaceThrilla... Put me down for 'A' Member Since: 25 juin 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 125

1300. NC0WX0Man 17:14 GMT le 29 juin 2008
ok next question is how can you tell when there is an area of low pressure associated with the wave? I mean besides Quickscat and the other scat but will there always be evident cyclonic turning?

1301. AWeatherLover 17:19 GMT le 29 juin 2008
I'll take C SpaceThrilla... Member Since: 2 novembre 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 431

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