Bertha moves away from Bermuda, eyes still on Invest 94L
Tropical Storm Bertha is once again up near hurricane strength, but is fortunately moving away from Bermuda. While her maximum sustained winds have increased to 70 mph, it is more important to note that her central pressure is also up to 995 mb, indicating a weaker storm.
Bertha - Watches and Warnings
Bertha's satellite signature shows a very large circulation with one main band wrapping around most of the storm. Other than that, Bertha looks like a normal tropical system decaying over the North Atlantic.
Motion continuing to the north and then to the east is expected over the next few days with some more wobbles to be expected on top of the general progression to the east. Short term strengthening is possible, but Bertha will be transitioning to an extratropical system in the long term.
Click for full size model imagery:
Bertha - Track Forecast
Bertha - Wind Speed Forecast
The area of interest heading toward the Lesser Antilles has still yet to organize. Overall conditions remain favorable for Invest 94L but deeper convection is required. Right now the main burst of convection visible on the satellite imagery is located ahead of the easterly wave axis. If the convection can shift a bit to the east then we could see some development. However, in its current position this burst of convection will not lead to development.
The wave will continue to progress to the west over the medium term. The HWRF has backed off developing the system, but the GFDL is still agressive in its solution. All the models are in agreement on a track to the west-northwest across the northern Caribbean.
Click for full size model imagery:
Invest 94L - Track Forecast
Invest 94L - Intensity Forecast
Writing from cheery old London this week, Bryan Woods.
Reader Comments
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94L is looking very nice I suspect that the low is under the blob in the west side of 94L
If this continues we may have a interesting scenario tomorrow morning
and if this continues the HH will surely fly to see if they find something =P
1. The cyclogenisis the spun off of the lower trough axis yesterday is currently about to make it's way on shore thanks to the front still digging in the GOM. All indication say that this will make landfall in the Naples area south of Tampa as a minimal TDep (odds are will not be listed by the NHC unless it gets itself together after it crosses Florida).
2. 94L is becoming very impressive. The low lvl circ has finally caught up with the massive blob of convection and is moving to favorable areas. Should be a TDep or TS within a day.
3. The massive blob of convection behind 94L has been eaten up by the ITCZ, but the low lvl circ associated with that convection has made its N'ly jog and is now out of the ITCZ. Expect to see this develop as well.
4. Well what can be said of Bertha. She just won't die. However, her death will be soon. Presently, she is being sandwiched by the strong trough to it's W and the deep ULL to it's E. Bertha will wobble between these two but will eventually be absorbed by the ULL and the front and move N.
Link
it looks like mid lvel is trying to get under the big mass of convection. should that happen we will see a TD today
lol the way you said that, it made it seem like you were just itching to downplay it. :)
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At 09:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Kalmaegi (985 hPa) located near 19.5N 123.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts up to 70 knots. The storm was reported as moving north at 6 knots.
Gale-force Winds
================
130 NM east from the center
110 NM west from the center
Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 22.9N 123.0E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 26.5N 123.0E - 75 knots (CAT 3)
72 HRS: 30.3N 123.7E - 75 knots (CAT 3)
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #11
============================
Tropical Storm "HELEN" has slightly intensified and accelerated while it continues moving in a north direction.
Tropical Storm Helen (Kalmaegi) is positioned as of 4pm PST at 19.5ºN, 123.5ºE or 210 kms Northeast of Aparri, Cagayan. The system has 10 minute sustained winds remains at 50 knots (95 km/h) with gusts up to 65 knots (120 km/h).
Signal Warning Number 2 (60-100 km/h)
=====================================
Luzon Region
Northern Cagayan
Calayan Group of Islands
Apayao
Batanes
Ilocos Norte
Signal Warning Number 1 (30-60 km/h)
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Luzon Region
Rest of Cagayan
Abra
Kalinga
Mt. Province
Ilocos Sur
La Union
Pangasinan
Benguet
there is a backup site(www.wund.com) just no blog
94L looks like it's still firing up convection, but I still dont see the circulation translating to the surface (last quickscat) *shrugs*
RUC looks to be showing the precip for this time much farther south than where it is and the GFS shows it in the same general area as the RUC (little more south of actual) and sends it over the peninsula overnight to the NE. NAM, show a slightly different solution....up the coast and then NE at the Big Bend area.
LOL...who knows *shrugs*
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