Bertha moves away from Bermuda, eyes still on Invest 94L
Tropical Storm Bertha is once again up near hurricane strength, but is fortunately moving away from Bermuda. While her maximum sustained winds have increased to 70 mph, it is more important to note that her central pressure is also up to 995 mb, indicating a weaker storm.
Bertha - Watches and Warnings
Bertha's satellite signature shows a very large circulation with one main band wrapping around most of the storm. Other than that, Bertha looks like a normal tropical system decaying over the North Atlantic.
Motion continuing to the north and then to the east is expected over the next few days with some more wobbles to be expected on top of the general progression to the east. Short term strengthening is possible, but Bertha will be transitioning to an extratropical system in the long term.
Click for full size model imagery:
Bertha - Track Forecast
Bertha - Wind Speed Forecast
The area of interest heading toward the Lesser Antilles has still yet to organize. Overall conditions remain favorable for Invest 94L but deeper convection is required. Right now the main burst of convection visible on the satellite imagery is located ahead of the easterly wave axis. If the convection can shift a bit to the east then we could see some development. However, in its current position this burst of convection will not lead to development.
The wave will continue to progress to the west over the medium term. The HWRF has backed off developing the system, but the GFDL is still agressive in its solution. All the models are in agreement on a track to the west-northwest across the northern Caribbean.
Click for full size model imagery:
Invest 94L - Track Forecast
Invest 94L - Intensity Forecast
Writing from cheery old London this week, Bryan Woods.
Reader Comments
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Here comes the paint... Nice Diagram cchs.
Just was gonna say that... Good convection. I can't tell if its trying to get a lower pressure under that cloud cover but the ITCZ is helping the convection so I would say keep a loose eye on it and if it puts itself out of the ITCZ then watch it closely.
NEW TROPICAL WAVE IS INTRODUCED OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA ALONG
28W/29W S OF 18N. THE AREA OF CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WAVE HAS BEEN TRACKED FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW AS IT MOVED WWD AND
NOW SHOWS SOME APPARENT CYCLONIC TURNING. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS MOSTLY W OF THE AXIS FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN 28W-35W.
And this paragraph talks about the weather south of PR/DR/Haiti.
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TILTED
ALONG 70W MOVING W 15 KT. THIS FEATURE REMAINS WELL DEFINED WITH
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING INVERTED-V CURVATURE ALONG THE AXIS
IN THE ERN CARIBBEAN. A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE AND
EMBEDDED ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN
67W-74W.
I'd have to say thats where the mid to upper level center is. The open low level center looks to be a little to the north and east. Right now it looks horrible. You can see east winds and southwest winds but the other directions dont look like they are there.
Shear is ok, I guess, but it could be better out ahead of it.
I'd say by Thursday we'll know yes or no, sound reasonable? Personally, I doubt anything will come of it but I don't doubt that I could be wrong =) .
6-meter NOMAD buoy
ARES payload
14.48 N 53.03 W (14°28'49" N 53°2'19" W)
Conditions at 41040 as of
1850 GMT on 07/15/2008:
Wind Direction (WDIR): ENE ( 70 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 17.5 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 21.4 kts
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.95 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.03 in ( Falling )
Note your placement of the low.
The western edge of that convection is largely driven by a large outflow boundary.
This western convection will die off shortly...then 94L will look weak...and then we'll do the reorganization all over again..because like you note...there is strong inflow and cyclonic turning with 94L.
I think the next reorganization might stick and develop, as the DMax and warmer water might finally moisten the atmosphere enough to stop this outflow degradation.
now this IS a wind shear map
and WOW look at the wind shear in the northern Caribbean and Caribbean it has drop big time it now down to 10 to 20kt where this AM it was 30kt to 40kt all so wind shear is now 5kt where 94L is goig
See post # 804.
As for the GOM, it looks to me like the logical location for a mid level low would be just south of Mobile, AL in the kink shown in water vapor imagery. What do you all think? Am I not seeing this correctly?
stationdata.wunderground.com/?prvtof=8b2VkUqfXDCVzkFcoAFuOZ6rXoKH7h2jnuhvmG8pLgwO0jw1AW0LCqHhJYDeKO Xr%2BcrCeMXG%2FCHVVA%3D%3D
No major changes have occurred with 94L during the course of the afternoon but the few minor changes within the internal structure/satellite presentation of the system indicate that this system is still trying to develop further. Looping satellite animations reveals what appears to be a new circulation center under the current convective mass. Looking at visible imagery (Link) the center of circulation (there is no evidence to confirm how deep the circulation has grown) is somewhere near 13N, 51W. If you look closely just to the north of these coordinates you can make out what appears to be low level cloud cover arching southward. Convection isn't very cold and 94L is still struggling to maintain higher cloud tops. The highest convection is located in a very small cluster north of the "COC". A QS pass would be very nice right about now. Also notice what appears to be a thunderstorm outflow boundary on visible loops radiating outwards from the new convective mass; indicating that 94L is still interacting with dry air and the stable air mass is what has been preventing significant low level convergence from taking place.
Shear is high north of the system but does not appear to be significantly affecting the development of what convection there is. Shear is dropping in the Caribbean as expected.
Remember that we are currently in D-min...most weak systems rely on the diurnal process in their developing stages and we'll see convection wane and redevelop over time. Question is, how much convection develops and how much does that convection warm? More convection with cloutops remaining cooler for longer would indicate a growing system, and we're not seeing that now.
Long story short; in my opinion, 94L hasn’t given up yet and still needs to be monitored, in addition to the wave behind it and the stalled trough over the NE Gulf. It's not over until the invest has degenerated into a bare swirl with extremely displaced convection; remember tha 94L has just barely become detached from the ITCZ. Luckily any development with this system will occur very slowly.
Link
I think that's the wrong link. You linked to the WU main page.
Nice Fairy tale isn't it.
Link
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