Bertha moves away from Bermuda, eyes still on Invest 94L
Tropical Storm Bertha is once again up near hurricane strength, but is fortunately moving away from Bermuda. While her maximum sustained winds have increased to 70 mph, it is more important to note that her central pressure is also up to 995 mb, indicating a weaker storm.
Bertha - Watches and Warnings
Bertha's satellite signature shows a very large circulation with one main band wrapping around most of the storm. Other than that, Bertha looks like a normal tropical system decaying over the North Atlantic.
Motion continuing to the north and then to the east is expected over the next few days with some more wobbles to be expected on top of the general progression to the east. Short term strengthening is possible, but Bertha will be transitioning to an extratropical system in the long term.
Click for full size model imagery:
Bertha - Track Forecast
Bertha - Wind Speed Forecast
The area of interest heading toward the Lesser Antilles has still yet to organize. Overall conditions remain favorable for Invest 94L but deeper convection is required. Right now the main burst of convection visible on the satellite imagery is located ahead of the easterly wave axis. If the convection can shift a bit to the east then we could see some development. However, in its current position this burst of convection will not lead to development.
The wave will continue to progress to the west over the medium term. The HWRF has backed off developing the system, but the GFDL is still agressive in its solution. All the models are in agreement on a track to the west-northwest across the northern Caribbean.
Click for full size model imagery:
Invest 94L - Track Forecast
Invest 94L - Intensity Forecast
Writing from cheery old London this week, Bryan Woods.
Reader Comments
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Thank you for this interesting link.
Looking at 94L. and noting her apparent illness right now. The 2:05 Discussion calls for less concern that it will develop, and that is good news, if it comes to pass.
In any case, the system would appear to be steering due west, based on what I am seeing on the wind maps, at all levels.
Major rain for the Islands is my forecast now, and perhaps some development in the Caribbean Sea.
Almost sounds kinda creepy... stalker-ish. He he.
Wind Direction (WDIR): NE ( 50 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 19.4 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 21.4 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 6.6 ft
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.92 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.03 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 81.3 ?F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 81.9 ?F
notice Albert wasn't our first storm.
Looks like diurnal pressure variations rather than a storm pressure drop.
What? Yes it was.
861.
Looks like diurnal pressure variations rather than a storm pressure drop.
If you look at the pressure on 7/11, you'll see that pressure preaked much higher than it did today. Pressure has been dropping in general (day to day average) signalling the approach of a storm. NHC has 94L's pressure at 1012mb, and the buoy's is at 1013mb.
Does look like a slow fall through the 14th. Tendency is on the rise after that.
area over carb near DR is waning and losing convection fast
94l shows a couple of strong cells within the nw sector with any remaing convection waning may rebuilt slowly later this evening but it should remain the same
area of interest to the ese of 94 is devoid of convection at the moment with a indication of some refiring starting shorly
still think 94L won't form
PTDY Pressure Tendency is the direction (plus or minus) and the amount of pressure change (hPa) for a three hour period ending at the time of observation.
NDBC Observation Data Descriptions
MAJOR DNS SERVER PROBLEM.
I got in cause...uhm... I'm married to a genius.
So far it doesn't look good for its chances but don't fret there will be more such events.
Still some dry air for it to contend with, but the environment in front if it, is slowly but surely becoming more moist.
those of you with outside emails to friends, if you can read this, please let them know.
What is the ip address of their DNS ?
this address will get you in a little but you won't be able to post, or log in.
Just type those #'s into your browser, no http or www in front of it.
let me know if this helps.
Hey smart guy why don't you close down that browser you have had open all day and then try:)
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