Tropical Depression 3 forms near South Carolina
Tropical Depression Three has formed off the Southeast U.S. coast. Charleston, SC long range radar shows the slow development of a solid spiral band of thunderstorms to the southeast of the center, away from land. The storm is over waters of marginal warmth, about 27°C, a degree above the threshold of 26°C needed to sustain a tropical storm. The warm waters are very shallow, and the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential is near zero, meaning we're unlikely to see rapid intensification of TD 3. Wind shear is about 15 knots over the storm, and is forecast to remain 10-15 knots over the next two days. There is some dry air over the Southeast U.S. that may get entrained into TD 3's circulation. TD 3 could intensify into a weak tropical storm, if the center manages to remain over water. None of the models forecast that TD 3 will intensify beyond a 50 mph tropical storm, and this is a reasonable forecast, due to the relatively cool water temperatures, moderate wind shear, and the presence of dry air nearby. Coastal areas of North Carolina are likely to get heavy rains from TD 3, but it remains to be seen if these rains will penetrate far enough inland to significantly alleviate drought conditions over the state. Heavy rains may also develop over South Carolina, but the main rain will probably remain offshore as the storm passes that state. TD 3 is unlikely to bring heavy rain to any other states, with the possible exception of Cape Cod and Nantucket, Massachusetts Monday/Tuesday.
Links to follow:
Charleston, SC long range radar
Southeast U.S. Marine observations and forecasts
Figure 1. Latest satellite image of TD 3.
Caribbean disturbance 94L
A well-organized disturbance in the Central Caribbean (94L) is bringing heavy rain and gusty winds to Haiti and Jamaica tonight. This afternoon's Hurricane Hunter flight was unable to find a closed surface circulation, and this evening's 6:51 pm EDT QuikSCAT pass also shows no surface circulation. An upper-level cold low centered over Cuba is bringing about 20 knots of wind shear to the northern portion of 94L, but the southern portion of the disturbance is under only about 10 knots of wind shear.
The upper-level low is forecast to slide westward and weaken over the next two days, bringing low wind shear of 5-10 knots over the disturbance Saturday and Sunday. The low shear combined with the warm (28.5°C) water of the Western Caribbean should allow 94L to finally organize into a tropical depression as early as Saturday afternoon. NHC is giving 94L a high (>50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning. Another Hurricane Hunter mission is scheduled to fly into 94L at 2 pm EDT Saturday. The disturbance has time to potentially strengthen into a tropical storm with 50 mph winds before coming ashore on the Yucatan Peninsula sometime between Sunday night and Monday afternoon. Passage over the Yucatan will no doubt significantly disrupt what should be a relatively weak system, and it is unclear what threat, if any, the storm will pose to the Gulf of Mexico coast. Once it does cross into the Gulf, wind shear should be low enough to permit development.
Bertha
Hurricane Bertha is still out there. I find it amazing we've had a July storm that has lasted 17 days and counting! Bertha's days are numbered, though. Bertha will reach cold water less than 70°F by Sunday, which should finally kill it.
I'll have a full update on the tropics Saturday morning. Boy, it sure looks like more like September than July in the tropics!
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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lol that's different
00Z HWRF had the strong storm.
Sorry about the confusion. I was just going by what the chart said.
B,is storm I.D.
C. is Time of the day it was issued.
I believe.
I was in the USMC Air Wing..not the Air Force./em>
But the thing is conditions haven't been as favorable as there going to be for the next 48 hours. These conditions should allow for a depression to form.
My take in my blog i noted if 94L gets stronger it heads North.
I agree!
Guide to Decoding Reconnaisance Schedules
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
A = Requested on-station time for each complete pattern.
B = Mission identifier. Part of the aircraft's tail number is in that.
C = Estimated time of departure from originating station.
D = Departure Station (KHST is Homestead, Florida. I think that you and
the weather community has these.)
E = Forecast position of storm / hurricane.
F = Destination station (where aircraft is scheduled to return).
G = Pattern to fly. The only one he had time to tell me is that ALPHA
is an X pattern with 105 mile legs. They go in, fly about 105 miles,
exit, go counter-clockwise and then fly the other 105 mile leg.
H = The forecast movement to be used calculating each pattern location.
I = Comments.
A is center fix date/time
C is takeoff date/time
E is time on station date/time
Just trying to point out how ridiculous it is to make a prediction of a blob blowing off the african coast
Our TD seems to be taking on more of a comma shape, with more banding features to the NE and SW. I think it should be a TS next advisory, but I doubt NHS will upgrade it until late tonight or tomorrow morning.
Link
I believe this post is stretching the blog due to several quotes with an image in it. Please edit. Thanks
Many thanks
well, I think it's a reasonable prediction. I see no reasons for it not to develop, most models develop it, the A/B high is building,so I dont think it'll recurve until very close to the US, and I think it's a question of will it turn north and hit the US east coast, or will it turn before that and go out to sea. Maybe a bold prediction, but I make bold predictions lol.
How about possible wind shear? We have no idea what wind shear will be like and right now it's not too favorable off the coast and near the CV islands right now.
If using dial up, this still water vapor image is easier to load. Link
Now if you could only tell us what day and what town we could start on the coastal evacuations!
LOL!!!
I wouldn't doubt it a bit!!
TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY FORMAT
ATLANTIC AND CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEANS
NOUS42 KNHC _________ (DATE/UTC TIME)
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL
_____ (LOCAL TIME) ___ (TIME ZONE) ___ (DAY) ___ (MONTH/DATE), ____ (YEAR)
SUBJECT: THE TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID ______Z (MONTH) TO ______Z (MONTH) (YEAR)
TCPOD NUMBER.........(YR)- __________
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. (STORM NAME, DEPRESSION, SUSPECT AREA) or (NEGATIVE RECON REQUIREMENTS)
FLIGHT ONE (NHC PRIORITY, if applicable)
TEAL or NOAA _____ (number)
A. __________________________Z FIX/INVEST TIME
B. __________________________ MISSION IDENTIFIER
C. __________________________Z DEPARTURE TIME
D. __________________________ FORECAST POSITION
E. __________________________Z TIME ON STATION
F. __________________________ ALTITUDE(S) ON STATION
G. __________________________ REMARKS (if needed)
FLIGHT TWO (if applicable, same as FLIGHT ONE)
2. (SECOND SYSTEM, if applicable, same as in 1. above)
3. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY (NHC PRIORITY, if applicable)
A. POSSIBLE (Unit) ON STATION REQUIREMENT NEAR (Location)
AT (Time) Z.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS (Same as in ATLANTIC)
Figure 5-7 of the National Hurricane Operations Plan
you know im patient im waiting because i know something is starting to cook with 94l.
GFS shows weakening shear.. and looking at water vapor imagery, African dust doesnt look like itll be a problem neither
No, but I would think they sincerely would like to classify this as a TD so they can 'up' the info level on it.
Hopefully that statement isn't directed to me. 94L has done nothing to be impressive and continues to struggle.
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