Tropical Depression 3 forms near South Carolina
Tropical Depression Three has formed off the Southeast U.S. coast. Charleston, SC long range radar shows the slow development of a solid spiral band of thunderstorms to the southeast of the center, away from land. The storm is over waters of marginal warmth, about 27°C, a degree above the threshold of 26°C needed to sustain a tropical storm. The warm waters are very shallow, and the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential is near zero, meaning we're unlikely to see rapid intensification of TD 3. Wind shear is about 15 knots over the storm, and is forecast to remain 10-15 knots over the next two days. There is some dry air over the Southeast U.S. that may get entrained into TD 3's circulation. TD 3 could intensify into a weak tropical storm, if the center manages to remain over water. None of the models forecast that TD 3 will intensify beyond a 50 mph tropical storm, and this is a reasonable forecast, due to the relatively cool water temperatures, moderate wind shear, and the presence of dry air nearby. Coastal areas of North Carolina are likely to get heavy rains from TD 3, but it remains to be seen if these rains will penetrate far enough inland to significantly alleviate drought conditions over the state. Heavy rains may also develop over South Carolina, but the main rain will probably remain offshore as the storm passes that state. TD 3 is unlikely to bring heavy rain to any other states, with the possible exception of Cape Cod and Nantucket, Massachusetts Monday/Tuesday.
Links to follow:
Charleston, SC long range radar
Southeast U.S. Marine observations and forecasts
Figure 1. Latest satellite image of TD 3.
Caribbean disturbance 94L
A well-organized disturbance in the Central Caribbean (94L) is bringing heavy rain and gusty winds to Haiti and Jamaica tonight. This afternoon's Hurricane Hunter flight was unable to find a closed surface circulation, and this evening's 6:51 pm EDT QuikSCAT pass also shows no surface circulation. An upper-level cold low centered over Cuba is bringing about 20 knots of wind shear to the northern portion of 94L, but the southern portion of the disturbance is under only about 10 knots of wind shear.
The upper-level low is forecast to slide westward and weaken over the next two days, bringing low wind shear of 5-10 knots over the disturbance Saturday and Sunday. The low shear combined with the warm (28.5°C) water of the Western Caribbean should allow 94L to finally organize into a tropical depression as early as Saturday afternoon. NHC is giving 94L a high (>50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning. Another Hurricane Hunter mission is scheduled to fly into 94L at 2 pm EDT Saturday. The disturbance has time to potentially strengthen into a tropical storm with 50 mph winds before coming ashore on the Yucatan Peninsula sometime between Sunday night and Monday afternoon. Passage over the Yucatan will no doubt significantly disrupt what should be a relatively weak system, and it is unclear what threat, if any, the storm will pose to the Gulf of Mexico coast. Once it does cross into the Gulf, wind shear should be low enough to permit development.
Bertha
Hurricane Bertha is still out there. I find it amazing we've had a July storm that has lasted 17 days and counting! Bertha's days are numbered, though. Bertha will reach cold water less than 70°F by Sunday, which should finally kill it.
I'll have a full update on the tropics Saturday morning. Boy, it sure looks like more like September than July in the tropics!
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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That would be more than scary, that would be terrifying! Anyone care to take a stab at what gas prices would be if that scenario played out?
what scares me even more is the fact that usually it will show it a-lot weaker... it could be indicating a 200kt cane there... seeing as 35kt usually means 65kt
$10 a gallon anyone? XD
But that scenario won't play out, because it's July. We're not gonna see a Katrina type storm in the Gulf in July.
Now, for August and September, err, watch out. XD
Yes, I know. I think we all do. I fear (and so do a lot of people, in all likelihood) that we won't go through the whole season without a storm in the Gulf, but I certainly hope we do.
Cheers Mate!! *clink* lol
Now, for August and September, err, watch out.
I tend to agree with that assessment. I think that historically, we have not had many Catagory 3,4,5 Storms in the GOM in July. The last time was 2005 with Dennis. And it is exceedingly rare for a Major Hurricane to hit Texas. The last major Hurricane to hit Texas was Bret in 1999 I believe. Rita hit the TX/LA Border as a Catagory 3 Storm as well. Alicia hit Galveston in 1983 as a Cat 3 Storm. Both Bret and Alicia formed in August, Rita in late September.
Yeah, see? Given these facts, I think it's premature for people to jump the gun because of a model run.
Honestly, people panic WAY too much everytime there is even a small chance of something getting into the Gulf and developing. And people also tend to forget that just because something develops, doesn't mean it's going to be the next Andrew or Katrina. A lot goes into to determining storm intensity, and also whether it forms at all. Look at 94L. We all thought it would be a hurricane by now, and it's not even a depression.
Now, do I think we'll see a major hurricane in the Gulf this year? Hard to say, since those are the rarest types of storms. But I think it's a good possibility, and put the odds of one popping up in there at least once during the season at least 40%.
I just hope the nation is prepared for the next "Big one", whenever that may be. Be it this year, 2009, 2010, 2015, 2020...
Cheers Mate!! *clink* lol
lol Fssh. :)
Ah, didn't know you lived in LA. I live in Prairieville, Louisiana. I've been to Lafeyette a couple times in the past.
And theoretically, 94L COULD become strong in the Gulf, but only if atmospheric conditions allow. High oceanic heat content means next to nothing if the upper-level conditions aren't favorable. Also, don't forget to factor in eyewall replacement cycles that intense hurricanes go through.
As for gas, uh... I don't know what to tell you on that one. They'll probably steadily rise, anyway, even without a cane.
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 19 JUL 2008 Time : 094500 UTC
Lat : 32:27:00 N Lon : 79:21:52 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
1.8 /1010.2mb/ 28.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
1.8 1.9 3.2
Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : 0.0mb
Center Temp : 7.7C Cloud Region Temp : -19.1C
Scene Type : SHEAR (0.15^ TO DG)
Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION
Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.2T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
****************************************************
the raw is somewhere around 50 mph
Actually it's starting to look healthier with nice banding on the northern edge of the COC
I hope that climatology bears out on this storm, and it doesn't develop into a monster, but if it does and if it hits anywhere near Galveston, we will see $5-$10 Gas Prices because that is where most of our refineries are located and where most oil is shipped in.
It's too far out to tell if atmospheric conditions would permit rapid development (or any development) but according to Dr. Masters, once it does cross into the Gulf, wind shear should be low enough to permit development.
I'm prepared to eat crow should 94L actually become a Category 4 and strike the Texas coast. And yes, there are exceptions, but this is no 2005, and I would rather not say something like "There's a 0.01% chance that 94L becomes a major hurricane that impacts the Gulf Coast".
What concerns me is the extremely high TCHP in the western Carribean right now (especially in the Yucatan Channel). It's similar to what Dean had to work with last year before its Yucatan landfall.
hey everyone, t.d. off the coast of south carolina reminds me of hurricane diana in '85, anybody else see the simularity?
It sorta resembles Diana. BTW, Diana was in '84. :)
I think it more or less resembles Alex in 2004, though.
I think that as far as Sea Surface Temps go, yeah we're definately below what we had in 2005. But we are also above average still, and the TCHP is really high like you said. Especially around the Yucatan Channel. If that ULL moves west out of the way, I don't see anything stopping this storm from being at least a Tropical Storm or Minimal Hurricane, and if it gets a nice ridge over it with good outflow, we could see a major storm potentially, but that's a lot of factors that would have to come together just right, and it's probably a low probability that would occur.
Best I can tell is somewhere around 16N 76W. But it does seem to have a lot of displaced convection to the north near Jamaica, so it is possible that another LLC is trying to form further to the North which poses all sorts of complications in the forecast track and intensity.
COC of 94L was near 76W,15N ....there is another llc near 78W, 17N, and the ULL COC is near 79W, 20N
Of the two LLC's which one do you think will win out? The one at 15N or 17N? There seems to be more convection near 78W 17N.
To your question, I would go with the one farther S since it has more open water to deal with. But, don't hold your breathe if that other llc develops b/c it's over some pretty warm waters atm.
I think at 7am our time there could be an update.
What is it like in Mandeville???
Started raining again in Town, we had a couple of hours of quiet(the birds were at my feeder at 4am which is very unusual)but we had 40mph winds earlier which could have caused some damage so hoping n one was injured either!!!
Hopefully, it being July and all, it won't get too bad.
That ULL is keeping 94l in check....apparently it may get out-of-the-way...
The GFDL forecast this yesterday, but it develops the more northern 'chunk' into a completely separate TD down the line which enters the Gulf.
Those beaches will still be there long after this weak system goes out-to-sea. It's just a TD....
My guess is thet she hit the warm water in the Gulf Stream and regenerated???
Blessings.
Respect!!!
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