Tropical Weather Discussion for Thursday, September 1, 2011

By: Randy Bynon , 18:24 GMT le 01 septembre 2011

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Hi folks!

Well, after two weeks in the Caribbean flying Irene, I am back at Keesler AFB in Biloxi and the season is starting to roll along. We have Hurricane Katia in the Atlantic, a disturbance in the North Atlantic, and a disturbance in the Gulf. And while no one is talking about it yet, there is a fairly vigorous wave just off Africa a little south of the point where Katia got going.

In the Gulf of Mexico ......


The big news here is Invest 93L over the central Gulf of Mexico. This system is currently very disorganized but is producing a broad area of showers and thunderstorms. NWS has issued flood watches through Sunday for most of the coastal counties from LA to NW FL in anticipation of the heavy tropical rains produced by this system. Right at the moment, an upper level low over S LA is helping to drive westerly shear over the invest area. But that low is being driven westward by the broad Bermuda High over the south central US and is expected to move far enough away over the next 24 hours to allow the shear to relax over 93L. The models call for some modest development of this system but proximity to land and some dry air north and northwest of the system may keep it from becoming too serious a problem. The biggest problem, as it is with most tropical systems, will be torrential tropical rains over the northern Gulf Coast. Compounding that issue is the fact that at the moment the models reflect a lack of steering flow for the next couple of days so 93L, whether it develops or not, isn't going anywhere too fast.

I was schedule to fly 93L today buit that tasking was canceled. I'm scheduled on a crew to fly an invest in 93L tomorrow morning. Being so close, it won't take us long to get there. I'll let you know what we find when I get back on the ground tomorrow.

In the Western Atlantic and Caribbean .....



In the Caribbean, a trough of low pressure in the southern Caribbean is producing thunderstorms in Central America but otherwise, the Caribbean is enjoying mostly clear conditions.

In the western Atlantic, a disturbance in the North Atlantic near 38N 62W appears to be a low level wave interacting with an upper level col or area of divergence between an array of low pressure systems SW, SE, and NW of the wave. NHC gives this system a 50% chance of development but even if it does develop, it is forecast to move NE into the open Atlantic.

In the Atlantic ....

The big news really in the Atlantic is Hurricane Katia approaching 16N 48W as of this writing. Katia has managed to remain fairly organized although it was looking less impressive on satellite this morning. The forecast calls for Katia to continue slow strengthening as it moves WNW. The models are beginning to diverge at the end of the long range forecast and at the moment it's hard to say whether Katia will recurve into the Atlantic or continue on a WNW track toward the US. We'll have to wait a couple of days for the models to get a better handle on the trough over the eastern US.



Lastly, there is a new wave that has emerged off the African Coast. I don't pay attention to waves fresh off the coast as they always look good until they have been over water for 24 hours or so but this one has persisted for the last 24 hours over water and in fact looks much like Katia looked a few days ago when it was in the same area. None of the models develop this wave but we'll have to keep an eye on it as the models typically don't handle genisis very well.


I'll try to come back from tomorrows flight with some pictures!

For those with iPhone, iPod Touches, and iPad's, there is a new app on the App store designed to help track the Hurricane Hunter flights and all the storms in the Atlantic. It's the first app I have seen that plots the flight tracks and the data generated by the flights.

http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/hurricanehunterapp colallc/id456831217?mt=8
Give it a try. And let me know what you think (No, it's not my app but I know the creators).


Have a great day!

Randy

TS Lee (LRandyB)
Hurricane Hunter pilots run through ingress checks before we descend into TS Lee
TS Lee
TS Lee (LRandyB)
The weather officer monitors aircraft weather instruments and communicates with NHC via satellite communications.
TS Lee
TS Lee (LRandyB)
Scattered showers over the ocean as we investigate the system at 500 feet.
TS Lee
TS Lee (LRandyB)
Scattered showers over the ocean as we investigate the system at 500 feet.
TS Lee
TS Lee (LRandyB)
Scattered showers over the ocean as we investigate the system at 500 feet.
TS Lee

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20. Randy Bynon , Dropsonde SysOp/AVAPS PM
19:03 GMT le 10 septembre 2011
Quoting TealRetired:
It's worth a look back at Randy's entry of Sept 12, 2009 - Remembering 911.


Thanks Teal! I appreciate it. I may repost that tomorrow. I'm scheduled to fly Nate but it may cancel if it gets over land before we can get there.
Member Since: 17 juillet 2001 Posts: 190 Comments: 2012
19. Randy Bynon , Dropsonde SysOp/AVAPS PM
19:02 GMT le 10 septembre 2011
Quoting OGal:



Randy just wanted to pop in and thank you for your flying service. I am thinking about you as the ten year anniversary of 9/11 comes. May you have a special happy day with your new wife. Life goes on as we have all found out. I just recently learned of the Saudi family that lived in the upscale Prestancia neighborhood of Sarasota, my town for nineteen years, and their connection to Mohamed Atta who was attending the flight school in Venice Fl. To think that horrible man was so close to where many of my friends lived.


Thank you!!!!
Member Since: 17 juillet 2001 Posts: 190 Comments: 2012
18. OGal
11:01 GMT le 10 septembre 2011




We will never forget.....

Member Since: 28 août 2005 Posts: 72 Comments: 19223
17. OGal
10:28 GMT le 10 septembre 2011




i agree Teal it is such a valuable look at 9/11.
Member Since: 28 août 2005 Posts: 72 Comments: 19223
16. TealRetired
09:41 GMT le 10 septembre 2011
It's worth a look back at Randy's entry of Sept 12, 2009 - Remembering 911.
Member Since: 20 juillet 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 12
15. OGal
23:33 GMT le 09 septembre 2011



Randy just wanted to pop in and thank you for your flying service. I am thinking about you as the ten year anniversary of 9/11 comes. May you have a special happy day with your new wife. Life goes on as we have all found out. I just recently learned of the Saudi family that lived in the upscale Prestancia neighborhood of Sarasota, my town for nineteen years, and their connection to Mohamed Atta who was attending the flight school in Venice Fl. To think that horrible man was so close to where many of my friends lived.
Member Since: 28 août 2005 Posts: 72 Comments: 19223
14. Randy Bynon , Dropsonde SysOp/AVAPS PM
20:17 GMT le 08 septembre 2011
Quoting DeMango:
Hey Randy;
Gonna fly Nate anytime soon? Some tracks have her headed to Biloxi, which would really be interesting!

Actually it looks like I'll fly Nate Sunday. But you are right. The models are split between the ones that think it'll remain a weak shallow system and steer it west with the prevailing low level easterlys and the models that think it will be a deeper, stronger storm and drive it more north in the steering flow around the high pressure system over the Caribbean. The models seem to be shifting more north with each run so it will be interesting to see where it goes. We have certainly seen our fair share of rain here but I think the folks in Texas would love to get some. That would help them out with the fires there.
Member Since: 17 juillet 2001 Posts: 190 Comments: 2012
13. DeMango
16:13 GMT le 08 septembre 2011
Hey Randy;
Gonna fly Nate anytime soon? Some tracks have her headed to Biloxi, which would really be interesting!
Member Since: 11 septembre 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 12
12. whitewabit (Mod)
03:56 GMT le 05 septembre 2011
Randy ... thanks ...
Member Since: 17 août 2005 Posts: 365 Comments: 31786
11. Randy Bynon , Dropsonde SysOp/AVAPS PM
03:45 GMT le 04 septembre 2011
Quoting whitewabit:
Randy ... Can you explain why Recon is not flying Katia ??? Would think they would be by now ... Or are all of its resources being used on Lee???


No, it's not a question of resources. We actually have crews in St. Croix right now positioned to fly Katia when NHC needs us to. Up until now, I think it's been because the forecast track of Katia isn't a threat to land. I suspect we'll see tasking for Katia in tomorrow's POD.
Member Since: 17 juillet 2001 Posts: 190 Comments: 2012
10. whitewabit (Mod)
03:39 GMT le 04 septembre 2011
Randy ... Can you explain why Recon is not flying Katia ??? Would think they would be by now ... Or are all of its resources being used on Lee???
Member Since: 17 août 2005 Posts: 365 Comments: 31786
9. Beachfoxx
13:07 GMT le 03 septembre 2011
Thanks Randy.
We are all wet! Raining steadily.
Member Since: 10 juillet 2005 Posts: 157 Comments: 29384
8. palmettobug53
13:05 GMT le 03 septembre 2011
Interesting as always, Randy.

It's nice to see shots of the crew, from time to time.

My gosh, lookit the 'dashboard' on that plane. I thought the dash on my cousin's Avalon was complicated: neither of us know what half of it is and she's had it 5 years! LOL I can't imagine trying to understand all the gadgets, dials, lights, switches, etc. in that cockpit.
Member Since: 7 octobre 2005 Posts: 237 Comments: 25270
7. jerseycityjoan
21:50 GMT le 02 septembre 2011
Thanks for your reports.

I've read some Northeast areas that just got whacked by Irene may get more rain next week from Lee or Katia, directly or indirectly.

I wonder what we'll have to look back on when things calm down by the end of October? (I say that with a mixture of curiousity and a bit of fear.)

Member Since: 29 septembre 2001 Posts: 0 Comments: 177
6. Randy Bynon , Dropsonde SysOp/AVAPS PM
20:58 GMT le 02 septembre 2011
I'm back from my flight. We found a broad area of light and variable winds in the center of the system and all the weather and winds were well removed to the east and north of the center. But we did find 40kts about 75 miles SE of the center. Based on that and the steadily decreasing pressure, NHC upgraded TD 13 to TS Lee while we were out there. I attached some pictures of our flight!!!
Member Since: 17 juillet 2001 Posts: 190 Comments: 2012
5. LakeWorthFinn
08:15 GMT le 02 septembre 2011
Hi and thanks Randy, have a safe flight!

Hi Fox, Rays and Buster !
Member Since: 6 octobre 2005 Posts: 67 Comments: 7395
4. Randy Bynon , Dropsonde SysOp/AVAPS PM
08:09 GMT le 02 septembre 2011
Headed out to fly TD 13!
Member Since: 17 juillet 2001 Posts: 190 Comments: 2012
3. Raysfan70
19:07 GMT le 01 septembre 2011
Thanks Randy!!

As always thanks for your insight.
Member Since: 28 juillet 2005 Posts: 138 Comments: 57354
2. cyclonebuster
18:36 GMT le 01 septembre 2011
Check it out Randy. I was just informed a few days ago that I have a Patent Pending on my tunnel idea. What you think about the power factor?


Updated image.



I am going to need a pretty big electrical department with many positions. Interested?
Member Since: 2 janvier 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20427
1. Beachfoxx
18:32 GMT le 01 septembre 2011
Hey Randy!

Long time no see....  thanks for the update!
Member Since: 10 juillet 2005 Posts: 157 Comments: 29384

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About LRandyB

I was an AF aviation weather forecaster for 12 years, then 15 years as a dropsonde systems operator with the AF Reserve Hurricane Hunters.

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