TS Debby will not go away quickly.
I can make a certain prediction of Debby's path: Debby will follow the end of the storm frontal system that stretches hundreds of miles to the ENE.
Debby is a Honeybadger
---eastern us wv 6/26 late pm utc
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/ir2-l.jpg
The dry high pressure coming from the north is at it's peak and yet Debby is wrapping complete spirals of cloudy low level circulation around herself. Debby is letting the remaining mid level hot air in its southern flank - the storm appears to split as the dry air comes around to Debby's south. Looks very much like Debby is pulling that hot air down and in and the low level moist air is streaming in solid feeder bands. And feeding it into the base of the currently exploding convection NE of the center.
Hot and dry air? Debby don't care!
---floater vis 6/26 late pm utc
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/04L/imag ery/vis0-lalo.jpg
Note how the storm explodes after its meal of hot dry air - Considering Debby as the whole collection of bands off to the NE it has plenty of moist air coming from most of the western tropical Atlantic to mix with it and get hotter moist air.
More predictions:
** Debbie will continue to move under (actually towards) the deep convection cell. Any move towards the front - in this case right down the line - moves Debby towards her fuel.
**Debby will strengthen over land (that she saturated with up to 2 feet of water).
I really watch very few storms, but Debby reminds me of Lisa in 2010. Lisa got stronger in this kind of interaction with a cold front in September: The wrap around pursued by the ridge increases the vorticity and the ridge itself provides for easy outflow. Any move between ENE and SW moves Debby into her fuel supply: the western tropical Atlantic all converging north on her.
** This storm has major momentum behind it and will not go away anytime soon.
There are a few forces that keep Debbie from moving east - foremost is all the bands converging on her from the rest of the front off to the ENE. Debbie will make a real move when the front to the NE moves. The high pressure ridge tried and appears to have failed: Debbie has moved a few degrees (to warmer water), Debby's outflow has wrapped around the eastern part of the ridge and is about to recycle from New England(!). Now Debby has tall convection. I think the hot dry air has acted like NOx with the powerful convection as evidence. Debbie looks better than ever.
** Don't count on Debbie leaving N FL for days.
** Debby will take her time crossing FL, may go South of East in the crossing and will emerge in the Atlantic as a strong TS if not a hurricane.
** Debby may well cross back into the GOM if indeed she crosses the saturated FL peninsula all the way in the first place. She may well stall again when the dry air is vanquished. This high pressure ridge will not lift her out (itppears to breaking off?) but she may come back W pursuing its remnants.
I may be wrong about alot of my predictions (marked with **) but one thing is certain: Debby is at the center of a converging tropical air mass that stretches from the Yucatan past the Outer Banks and covers much of the western tropical Atlantic. It is wishcasting to expect this storm to dissipate or weaken very much at all.
** Debbie will become a major unless she just grinds away at FL for the next week.
P.S. Debbie had a baby! The cute little TC sparked it up around 57W and 30N - time will tell if it can survive to become Ernesto but it did a full spin today and appears to have grown arms. It is embedded in Debby's feeder flow (has moisture) but it is getting sheared a bit. I think this may become Ernesto soon.
