One day, I tell ya! One day!

Posted by: OneDay, 08:44 GMT le 29 juin 2010

At this hour Alex looks aweful ragged for a 985 mb storm on satellite. This is probably due to upwelling of the shallow waters off the E Yucatan coast and a little bit of shear out of the NW. It appears the shear should slacken in the next 24-48 hours and as Alex finally gets to moving it will escape the shallow water. The next hurdle for the storm to overcome from an intensity standpoint will be the dry air in the NW GOM. I don't think that has been much of an issue so far and I don't think it will be much of an inhibitor going forward either.

We knew 2 days ago that Alex would be meandering in the GOM at this point in time and indeed that is what is occuring. Models have come into good agreement on an ultimate path for the storm once it does get going, but a few question marks remain. First off (and of greatest concern to yours truly) how far north will Alex drift? Secondly, how much momentum will Alex be carrying before it starts its left turn?

I like the NHC thinking on Alex at the current time. The risks outside of the NHC forecast would be for a weaker, more northerly storm.

Alex1am629

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TS Alex

Posted by: OneDay, 21:37 GMT le 26 juin 2010

Motion - Continuing on a westerly/just north of west track over Yucatan. Perhaps some jerks to the right as it crosses the peninsula.Intensity - peaked for now. Pressure may stay relatively low (under 1000 mb) but wind speeds should begin to decrease as center of circulation expands over land.Alex has maintained the more southerly route as expected, though it really ramped up the intensity in the past 3-6 hours. The tighter circulation may allow for Alex to finally ...

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TD 1

Posted by: OneDay, 07:41 GMT le 26 juin 2010

Intensity - should be weak/moderate TS Alex at Belize/Yucatan landfall.Motion - continuing on southern periphery of NHC guidance envelope.It appears that the circulation of TD 1 has been too broad to allow for it to really get its act together quickly tonight. It is currently being steered by the lower level steering currents, which are more east to westerly. I don't think that TD 1 will deepen enough quickly enough before interaction w/ land in order to have much o...

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How dry has it been?

Posted by: OneDay, 23:09 GMT le 13 Mars 2009

Up until a period of cold, soggy weather that began yesterday (and is forecast to continue into tomorrow at least, hallelujah!) Bush Intercontinental Airport (KIAH) had not had a single day with 1 inch or more rain in 119 days. In fact, only one of those days had rain in excess of 1/2 inch. That is pretty incredible for a city that averages 4 feet of rain a year.Put another way, in the past 119 days before yesterday we have had a grand total of 3.75 inches. For 1...

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Well, that was intense...

Posted by: OneDay, 07:21 GMT le 11 février 2009

...flashback to Ike...

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