Dr. Ricky Rood's Climate Change Blog

Still Following the Heat

Posted by: Dr. Ricky Rood, 04:08 GMT le 07 mai 2010

Still Following the Heat - Bumps and Wiggles (5):

Introduction: This is the fifth in a series on understanding climate variability, global warming, and what we might do about it. The series focuses on the past 30 years and the next 30 years. There has been so much going on it has become a bit of a ramble, but it’s a blog – so.

The basic idea in this series is that climate model projections and observational verifications are precise enough to tell us with extremely high confidence that the Earth’s surface will warm because of increasing carbon dioxide. With this knowledge in hand, a new standard is evolving in climate modeling, which is more in the spirit of traditional weather predictions. That is, more specific information about what is going to happen at a certain place at a certain time. To reach this new standard, it becomes imperative that we better quantify the bumps and wiggles in the observations for the last 30 years and use this information to develop our prediction skills for the next 30 years. It is no longer adequate to simply say that – given the observed natural variability, that any discrepancies between existing projections and observations are, formally, small. That is, they are noise.

Improving our ability to diagnose the discrepancies between model projections and observations challenges all aspects of the scientific investigation of the climate. Better observations are needed to sample climate variability. Better models are needed, and in particular, we will have to quantify better how pieces fit together and interact. Pieces? When we develop hypotheses, theories and predictive models, we break the climate system into pieces. One piece might be the type of convective cloud that causes thunderstorms, and that piece has to fit together with all of the other pieces that make up the atmosphere. Then the atmosphere has to fit together with the ocean and the land and the glaciers and the ice sheets and the sea ice and the trees and the people – it is a big problem. An important and understudied (I assert) part of climate science is “how do the pieces fit together.” While we know a lot, if we are going to understand the bumps and wiggles, then we are going to have to know more. (And for those who want to say it’s just a theory.)

So we break down the problem, and so far in this series (all linked below), we have talked about the Sun and the carbon dioxide that comes from volcanoes and “following the heat.” Of these the most important is following the heat. This is important because if you take a simple look at the warming due to carbon dioxide, the observed warming of the Earth’s surface is not as high as predicted. So what is wrong? In the second blog of the series we followed the heat into the ocean. Broadly in the last 30 years the heat content of the ocean has increased, and that is a far more convincing measure of a warming planet than the surface air temperature measurements. I want to revisit this because of a recent perspective by Kevin Trenberth and John Fasullo, who, investigating the recent bumps and wiggles, ask the question - why isn’t the ocean warming even faster? There is still missing heat. But first a diversion.

In the third entry of this series I introduced Simple Earth. Read that entry if you want the full description of the figure. Below is the same figure, but there has been one thing added to the figure. Namely, the blurry, reddish line on the surface. What this line represents is that if greenhouse gases increase, then there will be warming at the surface. (There will also be cooling in, say, the upper troposphere.)

Figure 1: Simple Earth 2: Some basic ingredients of the Earth’s climate and surface heating.

I also argued in that third entry that in the end, we were truly concerned about climate, climate change and humans. Sure we can dismiss the current warming as some cycle, but that takes humans and human-care out of the picture, and it is in our best interest to always think about climate and climate change in a human context. So when we think about it in the human context, we start to wonder about the warming at the surface, and especially, at the surface over land. Of course most of the Earth’s surface is ocean, and heat goes into the ocean. That’s what I represent in this figure:

Figure 2: Simple Earth 3: Some basic ingredients of the Earth’s climate. There is heat going into the ocean. (This is simple Earth, so this is vastly over simplified heat transport.)

So this brings us back to Kevin Trenberth and John Fasullo. In Science Magazine on April 16, 2010, they have a Perspective, where they discuss missing heat. The point of their article is that if you look at the heat budget of the Earth from satellites in space, we can measure that the Earth is not currently in balance. Heat is staying on the planet; hence, it must be warming. If you focus on the past five years, then the planet is just not warming as fast as it should. They do not say that the basic conclusions that the surface of the Earth is warming and will warm more are incorrect. Again, neither they nor their data challenge those foundational results, but if you look at the details, the bumps and wiggles, then we have some work left to do to fully understand what is going on. They conclude that now that geoengineering is entering our discussion, we really must be able to understand these bumps and wiggles.

This heat will be found, probably in the deep ocean, where we don’t have such good observations. The discrepancy will be explained. It is, ultimately, better observations that Kevin Trenberth and John Fasullo call for. (The discussion of the paper in blogs amongst both scientists and politically motivated sorts is pretty interesting. ( 1 , 2 , 3))

During my career, I have been fortunate enough to have some scientific successes – figured out something new, helped build an algorithm that got some use, or figured out a technique that mattered. Each time the result seemed big and significant in the moment. It’s not long after getting such a result that it seems mundane, perhaps almost self-evident – why did it take so long to figure that out? This is a little of what we are talking about here. So when Trenberth and Fasullo say,

“So, although some heat has gone into the recordbreaking loss of Arctic sea ice, and some has undoubtedly contributed to the unprecedented melting of Greenland and Antarctica, it does not add up to anywhere near enough to account for the measured energy difference at the top of the atmosphere.” (Emphasis mine.)

They are looking at the next problem, the bumps, the wiggles. They, their analysis, their observations offer no serious relief from the warming, the sea level rise, and the changing weather.

r

Bumps and Wiggles (1): Predictions and Projections

Bumps and Wiggles (2): Some Jobs for Models and Modelers (Sun and Ocean)

Bumps and Wiggles (3): Simple Earth

Bumps and Wiggles (4): Volcanoes and Long Cycles

And here is

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751. cyclonebuster 16:31 GMT le 25 mai 2010
The sun will also warm the water at depth to about 500 feet or so especially if it is darker with dispersents than the surrounding waters! Member Since: 2 janvier 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 18767

755. NRAamy 17:55 GMT le 25 mai 2010
have we discussed tunnels yet? :) Member Since: 24 janvier 2007 Posts: 315 Comments: 31937

760. NRAamy 18:21 GMT le 25 mai 2010
scratching their eyes in the dust. visine might help.... Member Since: 24 janvier 2007 Posts: 315 Comments: 31937

761. cyclonebuster 18:35 GMT le 25 mai 2010
Commerce Secretary Gary Locke Announces Fishery Failure Determination in Gulf of Mexico May 24, 2010 U.S. Commerce Secretary Gary Locke today determined there has been a fishery disaster in the Gulf of Mexico due to the economic impact on commercial and recreational fisheries from the ongoing Deepwater Horizon oil spill. The affected area includes the states of Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama. “We are taking this action today because of the potentially significant economic hardship this spill may cause fishermen and the businesses and communities that depend on those fisheries,” Locke said. “The disaster determination will help ensure that the Federal government is in a position to mobilize the full range of assistance that fishermen and fishing communities may need.” Locke made the determination under Section 312(a) of the Magnuson-Stevens Act. The declaration was made in response to requests from Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal and Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour based on the loss of access to many commercial fisheries and the existing and anticipated environmental damage from this unprecedented event. Link Member Since: 2 janvier 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 18767

762. cyclonebuster 18:37 GMT le 25 mai 2010
NOAA Baseline Sampling of Sediment, Shellfish and Water Sets Stage for BP Oil Spill Damage Assessment Data of unaffected waters is critical to measuring ecological impact of Deepwater Horizon BP oil spill May 24, 2010 In response to the Deepwater BP oil spill, NOAA’s Mussel Watch program has mobilized three teams of scientists to test shellfish, sediment and water at 60 locations along the Gulf of Mexico from the Florida Keys to Brazos River, Texas. The mission of this Mussel Watch effort is to collect additional baseline data on contamination in strategic areas of the Gulf shoreline so that if the oil hits a particular area, new samples can be taken that would reveal the full impact of the spill. These preliminary samples will be tested for 60 oil-related compounds—to include polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, known as PAHs. NOAA will use this data as part of the natural resources damage assessment that determines the type and amount of restoration that is required for the Gulf. Mussel Watch has been monitoring contamination along the nation’s coasts for more than 25 years, and has long-term data on the Gulf of Mexico that will also be used to assess the effects of the oil spill. The program’s name refers to scientists’ use of shellfish to test for ambient contamination. When shellfish feed, they filter water through their bodies. Any contaminants present in the water concentrate in their tissues. This gives researchers a good idea of what is present in the water and also what is entering the food chain. Using small boats close to shore, or in some cases wading through water to pry shellfish off of shallow reefs, scientists have been working 12 hours or more each day to collect samples before oiling occurs. Link Member Since: 2 janvier 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 18767

763. cyclonebuster 18:39 GMT le 25 mai 2010
Tuesday, May 25, 2010: An updated closure is beginning effective 6:00 p.m. Eastern Time (5:00 p.m. Central Time) – see map below Updates will be posted daily by 12:00 p.m. Eastern Time (11:00 a.m. Central Time) Link Member Since: 2 janvier 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 18767

764. cyclonebuster 18:42 GMT le 25 mai 2010
Scientists to Study Impact of Gulf Oil Spill on Marine Food Webs ScienceDaily (May 24, 2010) — New reports are surfacing every day about the immediate impacts of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill on Gulf Coast wildlife, especially as the oil reaches the sensitive marshlands along the coast. But how will these communities be affected over time? Scientists currently know very little about how long it takes for the hydrocarbons and heavy metals in crude oil to work their way through marine food webs. To address this issue, Academy scientist Peter Roopnarine is working with Laurie Anderson from Louisiana State University and David Goodwin from Denison University to collect and analyze three different types of mollusks from the Gulf Coast. These animals are continually building their shells, and if contaminants are present in their environment, they can incorporate those compounds into their shells. Link Member Since: 2 janvier 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 18767

765. cyclonebuster 19:05 GMT le 25 mai 2010
Tunnel question? How much energy can I get from an eco auger type turbine if it is 100 feet long and 25 feet in diameter when placed in the venturi section of my tunnel? I plan on reducing the venturi section 4 times to where the crossection is ~25 feet across. Link Member Since: 2 janvier 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 18767

772. cyclonebuster 19:39 GMT le 25 mai 2010
From NOAA. "The data showing that the world as a whole has been warming on the average are unequivocal, and over time this means there will be fewer (but not zero) cold spells and more (but not constant) hot spells. In the 1950s, the number of record hot days was about the same as the number of record cold days, but in the 2000s we saw twice as many record highs as record lows." Link Member Since: 2 janvier 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 18767

773. cyclonebuster 19:43 GMT le 25 mai 2010
Updated May 25, 2010 Louisiana Fishermen Helping in Spill Cleanup Report Getting Sick Some Louisiana fishermen affected by the massive oil spill in the Gulf — including some hired by BP to help in the cleanup — are reporting cases of debilitating headaches, burning eyes and nausea, and some industry and public officials are pointing the finger at chemical dispersants as the cause. Link Member Since: 2 janvier 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 18767

776. cyclonebuster 19:59 GMT le 25 mai 2010
Not only is the GOM heating up from the oil so is the loop current which turns into the Gulfstream East of the Keys and up the East coast! That warmer water is now going up the East coast and you can see it clearly on this temperature map! How can this effect hurricanes and will it melt more Arctic Ice once the warmer waters make it up that way?? Member Since: 2 janvier 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 18767

777. sirmaelstrom 20:04 GMT le 25 mai 2010
№ 774 Poorly-sited stations average is likely cooler due only to a different distribution than well-sited stations. No proof that if the poorly-cited stations were resited correctly, the resulting average wouldn't be even cooler than it is. Member Since: 19 février 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 568

780. sirmaelstrom 20:31 GMT le 25 mai 2010
№ 779 No comparisons between poorly-sited and well-cited stations in similar locations. Grid-boxing used separately on poorly-cited and well-cited stations to try to make distributions more uniform. Interpolation used to a much higher degree on the well-cited stations because there are so few of them, many grid-boxes are empty. Errors likely larger than the difference between the station averages. This says nothing about what temperature the poorly-cited stations would have if replaced with well-cited ones. Member Since: 19 février 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 568

786. cyclonebuster 01:54 GMT le 26 mai 2010
I was thinking if they add dispersants to the oil and change it's specific gravity to make it sink and mix with the water won't that change the speed of the loop current and gulfstream? Member Since: 2 janvier 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 18767

788. cyclonebuster 02:12 GMT le 26 mai 2010
Quoting JFLORIDA: I was wondering about that, causing it to run faster/slower and distort. Cause more eddies to break off? Member Since: 2 janvier 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 18767

789. cyclonebuster 14:07 GMT le 26 mai 2010
Check out the sensible heat polynyas in this loop of arctic ice extent? Can you spot them? They come and go over a few days but they are easy to see as they melt through the ice. This may be the mechanism that causes thiner or less massive ice.It could also be a place where volcanic activity exists if it seems to occur over and over near the same place causing upwelling. Sensible heat polynyas are formed by the upwelling of warm water, which makes the surface water warm enough to melt existing ice and/or prevent new ice from forming. The size is determined by surface area of warm water. These are areas of low ice production. Link Member Since: 2 janvier 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 18767

790. cyclonebuster 17:39 GMT le 26 mai 2010
Live link to oil leak! Link Member Since: 2 janvier 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 18767

791. cyclonebuster 18:00 GMT le 26 mai 2010
BTW Member Since: 2 janvier 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 18767

792. cyclonebuster 18:02 GMT le 26 mai 2010
BTW where is the pipe that is supposed to be within this pipe drawing from the plume I don't see it do you? Member Since: 2 janvier 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 18767

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