Dr. Ricky Rood's Climate Change Blog

Still Following the Heat

Posted by: Dr. Ricky Rood, 04:08 GMT le 07 mai 2010

Still Following the Heat - Bumps and Wiggles (5):

Introduction: This is the fifth in a series on understanding climate variability, global warming, and what we might do about it. The series focuses on the past 30 years and the next 30 years. There has been so much going on it has become a bit of a ramble, but it’s a blog – so.

The basic idea in this series is that climate model projections and observational verifications are precise enough to tell us with extremely high confidence that the Earth’s surface will warm because of increasing carbon dioxide. With this knowledge in hand, a new standard is evolving in climate modeling, which is more in the spirit of traditional weather predictions. That is, more specific information about what is going to happen at a certain place at a certain time. To reach this new standard, it becomes imperative that we better quantify the bumps and wiggles in the observations for the last 30 years and use this information to develop our prediction skills for the next 30 years. It is no longer adequate to simply say that – given the observed natural variability, that any discrepancies between existing projections and observations are, formally, small. That is, they are noise.

Improving our ability to diagnose the discrepancies between model projections and observations challenges all aspects of the scientific investigation of the climate. Better observations are needed to sample climate variability. Better models are needed, and in particular, we will have to quantify better how pieces fit together and interact. Pieces? When we develop hypotheses, theories and predictive models, we break the climate system into pieces. One piece might be the type of convective cloud that causes thunderstorms, and that piece has to fit together with all of the other pieces that make up the atmosphere. Then the atmosphere has to fit together with the ocean and the land and the glaciers and the ice sheets and the sea ice and the trees and the people – it is a big problem. An important and understudied (I assert) part of climate science is “how do the pieces fit together.” While we know a lot, if we are going to understand the bumps and wiggles, then we are going to have to know more. (And for those who want to say it’s just a theory.)

So we break down the problem, and so far in this series (all linked below), we have talked about the Sun and the carbon dioxide that comes from volcanoes and “following the heat.” Of these the most important is following the heat. This is important because if you take a simple look at the warming due to carbon dioxide, the observed warming of the Earth’s surface is not as high as predicted. So what is wrong? In the second blog of the series we followed the heat into the ocean. Broadly in the last 30 years the heat content of the ocean has increased, and that is a far more convincing measure of a warming planet than the surface air temperature measurements. I want to revisit this because of a recent perspective by Kevin Trenberth and John Fasullo, who, investigating the recent bumps and wiggles, ask the question - why isn’t the ocean warming even faster? There is still missing heat. But first a diversion.

In the third entry of this series I introduced Simple Earth. Read that entry if you want the full description of the figure. Below is the same figure, but there has been one thing added to the figure. Namely, the blurry, reddish line on the surface. What this line represents is that if greenhouse gases increase, then there will be warming at the surface. (There will also be cooling in, say, the upper troposphere.)

Figure 1: Simple Earth 2: Some basic ingredients of the Earth’s climate and surface heating.

I also argued in that third entry that in the end, we were truly concerned about climate, climate change and humans. Sure we can dismiss the current warming as some cycle, but that takes humans and human-care out of the picture, and it is in our best interest to always think about climate and climate change in a human context. So when we think about it in the human context, we start to wonder about the warming at the surface, and especially, at the surface over land. Of course most of the Earth’s surface is ocean, and heat goes into the ocean. That’s what I represent in this figure:

Figure 2: Simple Earth 3: Some basic ingredients of the Earth’s climate. There is heat going into the ocean. (This is simple Earth, so this is vastly over simplified heat transport.)

So this brings us back to Kevin Trenberth and John Fasullo. In Science Magazine on April 16, 2010, they have a Perspective, where they discuss missing heat. The point of their article is that if you look at the heat budget of the Earth from satellites in space, we can measure that the Earth is not currently in balance. Heat is staying on the planet; hence, it must be warming. If you focus on the past five years, then the planet is just not warming as fast as it should. They do not say that the basic conclusions that the surface of the Earth is warming and will warm more are incorrect. Again, neither they nor their data challenge those foundational results, but if you look at the details, the bumps and wiggles, then we have some work left to do to fully understand what is going on. They conclude that now that geoengineering is entering our discussion, we really must be able to understand these bumps and wiggles.

This heat will be found, probably in the deep ocean, where we don’t have such good observations. The discrepancy will be explained. It is, ultimately, better observations that Kevin Trenberth and John Fasullo call for. (The discussion of the paper in blogs amongst both scientists and politically motivated sorts is pretty interesting. ( 1 , 2 , 3))

During my career, I have been fortunate enough to have some scientific successes – figured out something new, helped build an algorithm that got some use, or figured out a technique that mattered. Each time the result seemed big and significant in the moment. It’s not long after getting such a result that it seems mundane, perhaps almost self-evident – why did it take so long to figure that out? This is a little of what we are talking about here. So when Trenberth and Fasullo say,

“So, although some heat has gone into the recordbreaking loss of Arctic sea ice, and some has undoubtedly contributed to the unprecedented melting of Greenland and Antarctica, it does not add up to anywhere near enough to account for the measured energy difference at the top of the atmosphere.” (Emphasis mine.)

They are looking at the next problem, the bumps, the wiggles. They, their analysis, their observations offer no serious relief from the warming, the sea level rise, and the changing weather.

r

Bumps and Wiggles (1): Predictions and Projections

Bumps and Wiggles (2): Some Jobs for Models and Modelers (Sun and Ocean)

Bumps and Wiggles (3): Simple Earth

Bumps and Wiggles (4): Volcanoes and Long Cycles

And here is

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253. Patrap 15:30 GMT le 12 mai 2010
Anyone want some Whiskey..? Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111464

256. crucilandia 17:48 GMT le 12 mai 2010
254 learn what brightness temperature means first Member Since: 6 Mars 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2212

257. crucilandia 18:09 GMT le 12 mai 2010
this is what you should have posted. Note the cooling in antarctica Color coded map of decadal trends in MSU channel TLT (1979 - 2009). MSU/AMSU data are produced by Remote Sensing Systems Member Since: 6 Mars 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2212

259. crucilandia 19:15 GMT le 12 mai 2010
258 it is hard to deal with a non-scientist, the focus of our discussion has been the temperature and ice sheet trends in Antarctica. michaelSTL was showing irrelevant and incorrect graphs. Member Since: 6 Mars 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2212

264. Patrap 20:25 GMT le 12 mai 2010
KSC Live Feeds Ch 4 Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111464

265. crucilandia 20:26 GMT le 12 mai 2010
# 261 Very reliable rate estimates if one has to go over all this to make sense of what they are measuring: 1. High degree and order spherical harmonics of GRACE gravity solutions are dominated by noise 2.The exact cause of the noise is not certain, but noise is significantly suppressed by removing correlated variations in coefficients 3. once data is filtered they apply a a 300 km Gaussian smoothing 4. then, the mean of all 43 monthly solutions removed 5. After filtering, surface mass change field is estimated from each of the 43 solutions 6. estimate of apparent mass rate that will include contributions from interannual and decadal fluctuations, due to the brevity of the time series 7. the GRACE orbit configuration and errors in the S2 tide model make alias relatively strong 8.there is evidence of remaining problems in some locations 9. Further analysis is required to remove biases from the apparent rates introduced by a limited range of spherical harmonics, Gaussian smoothing, and other processing steps, and to obtain a separate estimate for ice loss 10. We focus efforts on several geographical regions with relatively large apparent rates. (cherry picking) 11. Errors due to inadequate atmospheric and oceanic models used in GRACE processing are significant 12. Model rates and region shapes are adjusted until there is general agreement with the GRACE map (force the data to show what you want) Member Since: 6 Mars 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2212

266. crucilandia 20:28 GMT le 12 mai 2010
262 again showing inability to discuss one issue. I never had the intention to use Antarctica to disprove globla issues Member Since: 6 Mars 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2212

269. cyclonebuster 00:25 GMT le 13 mai 2010
Quoting crucilandia: 262 again showing inability to discuss one issue. I never had the intention to use Antarctica to disprove globla issues But you did! Member Since: 2 janvier 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 18774

270. cyclonebuster 00:53 GMT le 13 mai 2010
How much oil can that well pump into the GOM potentially? Member Since: 2 janvier 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 18774

271. cyclonebuster 00:57 GMT le 13 mai 2010
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- BP knew of problems with an offshore well hours before it exploded last month, spilling millions of gallons of oil into the Gulf of Mexico, a House committee chairman said Wednesday. Rep. Henry Waxman, D-Calif., said the oil company told the Energy and Commerce subcommittee on oversight privately that the well failed a key pressure test just hours before it exploded on April 20. The test indicated pressure was building up in the well, which could indicate oil or gas was seeping in and could lead to an explosion, said Waxman. "Yet it appears the companies did not suspend operations, and now 11 workers are dead and the Gulf faces an environmental catastrophe," he said, asking why work wasn't stopped on the well. Link Member Since: 2 janvier 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 18774

272. idontknowforsure 11:27 GMT le 13 mai 2010
Crony Capitalism, that's what it's about. as to climate As to the world Member Since: 17 janvier 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 289

273. cyclonebuster 13:45 GMT le 13 mai 2010
Red is oil on the shore already. Tunnels would have prevented this! Member Since: 2 janvier 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 18774

274. Patrap 14:35 GMT le 13 mai 2010
I never had the intention to use Antarctica to disprove globla issues Whats a Globla issue..? Im lost....? Imagine dat Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111464

275. cyclonebuster 14:47 GMT le 13 mai 2010
Why don't the scientist pinch the leak off hydraulically and then blast weld the pipe together to stop the leak? Member Since: 2 janvier 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 18774

276. martinitony 15:16 GMT le 13 mai 2010
Quoting cyclonebuster: Why don't the scientist pinch the leak off hydraulically and then blast weld the pipe together to stop the leak? Cyclone, maybe you could grab some scuba gear and a blow torch and swim down there and take care of things. Make sure you wear something warm and carry a flashlight. Member Since: 29 juillet 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 927

277. cyclonebuster 15:23 GMT le 13 mai 2010
Quoting martinitony: Cyclone, maybe you could grab some scuba gear and a blow torch and swim down there and take care of things. Make sure you wear something warm and carry a flashlight. Just what we need a wise guy at a time like this! Member Since: 2 janvier 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 18774

279. cyclonebuster 16:50 GMT le 13 mai 2010
Quoting skepticall2: The pressure from the oil is to great that was probably the first thing they thought of unless it is on the don't think of this list because it won't work. What is the differential pressure between the well and the ocean at that depth? I am sure the hydraulics are more than up to the task to pinch the pipe off! Member Since: 2 janvier 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 18774

281. cyclonebuster 17:06 GMT le 13 mai 2010
A hundred ton press could do it easy! Member Since: 2 janvier 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 18774

283. cyclonebuster 17:09 GMT le 13 mai 2010
Quoting skepticall2: Down in the gulf where the pressure is great. I really think they have thought about this sounds unprofessional not to. How do you know unless you ask? Member Since: 2 janvier 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 18774

285. cyclonebuster 17:14 GMT le 13 mai 2010
Quoting skepticall2: Your thinking that they just didn't think of the "easiest" thing to fix it at all? My friend told me this the first week then said it wouldn't work which makes complete sense. Test it up on land I bet it does work. Test it under water I bet it will still work. Member Since: 2 janvier 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 18774

287. cyclonebuster 17:20 GMT le 13 mai 2010
Quoting skepticall2: If you can test it with the pressure for it and the oil rushing through it on land than be my guest. I bet it won't work. I assure you it will work! What is the wall thickness of the pipe and its alloy? What is the outside diameter vs the inside diameter of the pipe?? Member Since: 2 janvier 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 18774

289. cyclonebuster 17:26 GMT le 13 mai 2010
Pressure differential isn't that great between well and ocean depth because if it were it would blowing out many times quicker than it is in this video. Link Member Since: 2 janvier 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 18774

290. cyclonebuster 17:34 GMT le 13 mai 2010
Quoting skepticall2: Why don't you look those up? Just like you told me to look up what the temperature of the Earth should be at. This isn't an oil blog I don't feel like talking about it anymore because there isn't much being brought up here that people haven't thought of. I tried looking it up but I couldn't find the information. Did you have any luck? If you don't think oil has anything to with climate change then I don't know how to help you! Sorry. Member Since: 2 janvier 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 18774

292. cyclonebuster 17:39 GMT le 13 mai 2010
Negative you are incorrect! Rick Roods blog is about climate change not cycles. Can you read the title? Quoting skepticall2: You mean climate cycle. We get change 4 times a year. Negative you are incorrect! Rick Roods blog is about climate change not cycles. Can you read the title? Climate Change Last Updated: 1:54 AM GMT on May 08, 2010 %u2014 Last Comment: 5:39 PM GMT on May 13, 2010 Still Following the Heat Posted by: RickyRood, 4:08 AM GMT on May 07, 2010 Still Following the Heat - Bumps and Wiggles (5): Member Since: 2 janvier 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 18774

293. cyclonebuster 17:41 GMT le 13 mai 2010
bump Member Since: 2 janvier 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 18774

295. cyclonebuster 17:44 GMT le 13 mai 2010
Quoting skepticall2: Yes we can talk about change which happens 4 times a year in most parts of the Earth. Negative you are incorrect! Rick Roods blog is about climate change not cycles. Can you read the title? Climate Change Last Updated: 1:54 AM GMT on May 08, 2010 %u2014 Last Comment: 5:39 PM GMT on May 13, 2010 Still Following the Heat Posted by: RickyRood, 4:08 AM GMT on May 07, 2010 Still Following the Heat - Bumps and Wiggles (5): Member Since: 2 janvier 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 18774

297. cyclonebuster 18:07 GMT le 13 mai 2010
Quoting skepticall2: There is no such thing as man made global warming which is why he is talking about climate change. I have yet to see proof of man made global warming nobody on this blog can show information that will help man made global warming side. What is the temperate of the Earth supposed to be at? Build my tunnels they will prove it exists. Member Since: 2 janvier 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 18774

298. cyclonebuster 18:21 GMT le 13 mai 2010
Gas rig sinks off coast of Venezuela, government says Venezuelan government officials said Thursday they are investigating why a natural gas rig sank off the nation's coast in the early morning hours, the state-run energy company said. All 95 workers on board were rescued and no gas leaks were detected because safety valves cut off the flow, said the company, Petroleos de Venezuela, also known as PDVSA. The Aban Pearl platform, in the Caribbean Sea off the coast of Sucre state, started to list at 11:23 p.m. Wednesday, PDVSA said on its website. An inspection of the four support columns detected massive flooding and an evacuation was started, the company said. The captain and two engineers stayed aboard until the rig listed to 45 degrees and then also evacuated, PDVSA said. No environmental damage occurred, the company said. The rig was extracting natural gas from a well called Dragon 6, which was immediately sealed, PDVSA said. Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez broke the news of the rig's sinking on his Twitter account, @Chavezcandanga. "With sorrow I inform you that the gas platform Aban Pearl sank a few moments ago," Chavez wrote around 3 a.m. "The good news is that the 95 workers are safe." He posted another tweet a few minutes later that said, "They were evacuated and at this moment two patrol boats from our Navy are moving to the area. We will go forward and will TRIUMPH. Viva VENEZUELA." The rig workers were picked up by the tanker Petro Saudi Discover and were transported to land, some by helicopter. Four of the workers appeared later Thursday at a briefing on the incident broadcast by the government-owned VTV station. Post by: The CNN Wire Filed under: Latest news %u2022 Venezuela Link Member Since: 2 janvier 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 18774

299. cyclonebuster 18:34 GMT le 13 mai 2010
NEW YORK - The company that owns the sunken Deepwater Horizon rig said Thursday it will petition a federal court in Houston to cap its overall liability from the incident at less than $27 million. Transocean Ltd. expects to receive $560 million in insurance money from the loss of the Deepwater Horizon. If court approves the liability limit, Transocean would be left with about $533 million, almost enough to cover the company's original revenue expectations over a three-year contract with BP PLC. BP leases the well that's now spewing 210,000 gallons of crude into the Gulf of Mexico each day.A spokesman for the Swiss company said the company will cite an 1851 law that says the owner of a sunken vessel is liable only for its value after the accident. The liability limit would cap the amount that Transocean would be forced to pay if it loses any of the numerous lawsuits related to the Deepwater Horizon explosion. The company also may be able to delay other proceedings for years while a judge determines the size of Transocean's liability, said Keith Hall, a New Orleans lawyer who represents oil and gas companies. Transocean has been named in more than 100 class-action, personal injury and wrongful death lawsuits. The plaintiffs are seeking billions of dollars in damages from a variety of interests including commercial fishermen, seafood companies, property owners and charter boat captains. Link Member Since: 2 janvier 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 18774

300. Patrap 18:39 GMT le 13 mai 2010
Shheeesh.. No such thing... Really? Then where does all the emissions from the fossil fuel burning exhausts go sport? If you know all these absolutes. Please enlighten us on what you know. Best look at the data instead of golfing. Dem Links are whupping yas bad anyway LMAO Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111464

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