Drought, Fire, Flood: In the News

By: Dr. Ricky Rood , 05:22 GMT le 12 juillet 2011

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Drought, Fire, Flood: In the News

I have been writing about a variety of issues that I know are of interest to only a small number of people – U.S. science organizations, climate model software, and validation of climate models. I am going to move away from that arcane set of subjects for a while and spend a little more time in the climate mainstream. In this entry I want to touch on several subjects – starting with my garden.

My garden is in the flat land that is the western edge of the Great Plains, just east of Boulder, Colorado. Weather wise, it is a complex and difficult environment: more than 5000 feet above sea level, reliant upon water from the winter snow pack in the mountains, huge swings of hot and cold. In terms of climate types, I have seen region defined as both arid and semiarid. In the last week, we have had three or more inches of rain – hard driving rain with much lightning. There is water standing between the rows in the garden. The week of July 4 it was so dry there was a fire ban, and many firework fires.

Last summer in Boulder we had the Fourmile Fire, which burned thousands of acres and dozens of houses. With this rain, we have mudslides, rock slides and flash floods (Longmont Times Call). It all makes you appreciate the importance of the weather and the climate. Wet and dry. Hot and cold. ( 485 Billion Dollar Impact of Weather)

Boulder is a microcosm of what is going on in the U.S. There have been overwhelming fires in Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas. (Texas Fires). Dangerous drought and heat is spreading all across the southern half of the U.S. The dust storm last week in Arizona was reminiscent of pictures of the Dust Bowl. (more here). We were overwhelmed not long ago by the Mississippi River flooding. I have almost forgotten about the Missouri River flooding.



Figure 1: From KFAB Omaha News Radio. Photo Credit AP: Missouri River flood of Calhoun Nuclear Power Plant.

We see here the persistence of weather, climate, snow cover, drought, floods - one extreme after another. Jeff Master’s wrote an excellent summary of 2010-2011 as being a year of the most extreme events since 1816 – the year of Mount Tambora, a definitive and understood climate anomaly. Jeff writes that June 2011 continues the run. July 2011 is looking strong. It has been more than 300 months since there was a “below average” mean temperature. That’s a little compelling.

We are being handed one case study after another, where we see the impact that weather and climate have on us. And what is that impact? We see vulnerable people losing their homes, their crops. But where is the real threat? What does it mean that 213 counties in Texas are primary disaster areas?

Energy, economy, population – markets. We all know that the weather affects our economy. We rely on a stable climate. We see here and now an interconnected world, where extreme heat kills thousands and destroys crops and send food prices soaring. We see multiple billion dollar liens placed on our economy by floods, droughts, and tornadoes. These costs come at a time when economies all around the world are weak. There is a debt crisis, and the weather is demanding more loans. Right here and now the world is providing one climate disaster after another. The weather and climate are showing the need for more planning, for building resilience and recovery strategies. The weather and climate are revealing our vulnerabilities. While there is the obvious, the family fleeing the flood, the destroyed Joplin, Missouri hospital, there is also the accumulated impact felt through markets, higher food prices, emergency relief, things that will not be fixed, people relocating.

We are being offered lessons. I have written this far and not strung together the words “climate change” or mentioned “global warming.” This is the weather in our warming climate. The take away message from climate models, Be Prepared.

r

Rood on To the Point

Open Climate Modeling:

Greening of the Desert

Stickiness and Climate Models

Open Source Communities, What are the Problems?

A Culture of Checking


Organizing U.S. Climate Modeling:

Something New in the Past Decade?

The Scientific Organization

A Science-Organized Community

Validation and the Scientific Organization

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Quoting Neapolitan:
As of yesterday, 2011 U.S. record daily high and high minimum temperatures have outnumbered record daily low and low maximum by 26,279 to 15,264, or 11,015. That represents a ratio of 1.72 high records for every low record. (Link)

So far in July, daily high maximum records outnumber daily low minimum records by better than 5 to 1, and daily high minimum records outnumber daily low maximum records by 9.3 to 1. Overall high/low monthly ratio: 7.01 to 1.

It's hot, and getting hotter, ain't it?


Even though that is regional it is still not enough proof for the refuseniks. When will they ever learn?
Member Since: 2 janvier 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20219
As of yesterday, 2011 U.S. record daily high and high minimum temperatures have outnumbered record daily low and low maximum by 26,279 to 15,264, or 11,015. That represents a ratio of 1.72 high records for every low record. (Link)

So far in July, daily high maximum records outnumber daily low minimum records by better than 5 to 1, and daily high minimum records outnumber daily low maximum records by 9.3 to 1. Overall high/low monthly ratio: 7.01 to 1.

It's hot, and getting hotter, ain't it?
Member Since: 8 novembre 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13278
Quoting RustyShackleford:


Again?

This is becoming a reoccuring theme around here for you guys.

#noproof


It is obvious that for some there can not be any proof no matter how much data is shown. It really shows how narrow minded the refuseniks are and how much they are out of touch with reality!
Member Since: 2 janvier 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20219
Quoting RustyShackleford:
I hope I get one of those man made sea breeze storms this afternoon here...

#noproof

I asked you yesterday CB for some proof you didn't show any.

Why?

Thought you wanted to prove your position in all of this.

#noproof


You wouldn't know what proof is even if you saw it.
Member Since: 2 janvier 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20219
.
Member Since: 8 novembre 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13278
OUCH!

Lowest annual GLOBAL high extent/area since 1979.The records keep falling folks! Don't let the refuseniks fool you!


Member Since: 2 janvier 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20219

OUCH 5th lowest already since 1979.


Member Since: 2 janvier 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20219
OUCH!


Arctic sea ice headed for another record melt: Scientists

Last month saw the second lowest Arctic ice cover since 1979, continuing the downward trend of summer ice cover, says the National Snow and Ice Data Center in Colorado.

Ice extent shrank in June at an average rate of 80,800 square kilometres per day, about 50 per cent faster than the average drop recorded from June 1979 to 2000.

At this rate, the Arctic Ocean may be ice free in summer by 2030, said Mark Serreze, director of the NSIDC, calling the decline of the extent of the sea ice and its loss of thickness "an overall downward spiral."

The average ice extent for June fell below that for June 2007, which, until now, had the lowest minimum ice extent at the end of summer.

June ice extent was lower than normal in much of the Arctic, but Siberia's Kara Sea region had particularly low ice.

Ice has also started to break up off the coast of Alaska in the Beaufort Sea. These open water areas absorb the sun's energy, which will help to further ice melt through the summer, scientists say.

Arctic sea ice has entered "a critical period of the melt season," they say.

That's because the weather over the next few weeks will determine whether the Arctic sea ice cover will again approach record low reached in 2007.

Air temperatures for this past June were 1 C to 4 C warmer than average over most of the Arctic Ocean, except in the Beaufort and Greenland seas, where temperatures were near normal or slightly below normal, the NSIDC said.

As well, water temperatures may be warming, according to an article published recently in the journal Science, which showed that the flow of ocean heat into the Arctic Ocean from the Atlantic is now higher than at any time in the past 2,000 years.



Link







Member Since: 2 janvier 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20219
Thank you, Dr. Rood. That is an excellent layman's synopsis of the current climate situation. The last month with a global mean temperature above average was in early 1985? 300 plus months? Now that sounds like warming.

There are a dwindling number of those who still wishfully cling to the entrenched belief that temps have plateaued and that some period of cooling is about to get underway, but the only obvious way to make that work is to ignore the fact that rising CO2 is causing temperatures to also rise.

"The indicators show unequivocally that the world continues to warm," -- Thomas R. Karl, director of the National Climatic Data Center (Link)

"There is a clear and unmistakable signal from the top of the atmosphere to the depths of the oceans," added Peter Thorne of the Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites, North Carolina State University (Link)

One hopeful sign: now that the Great Murdoch Global Lie Machine is being exposed for what it is, it's possible that guilt and a bit of disinfecting sunshine will force at least a little accountability to return to journalism, and credible news outlets will thus stop doing irresponsible things such as giving equal time on climate matters to both a) degreed scientists with decades of experience and b) uneducated ex-small market TV weathermen. (fingers crossed)
Member Since: 8 novembre 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13278
Dr. Rood scroll to 41 mins on this podcast. I Talk about my idea and a little about what they can do about what you mentioned here on your blog. They can do so much more for us.Please the climate can not wait any longer.

Link

Member Since: 2 janvier 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20219

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About RickyRood

I'm a professor at U Michigan and lead a course on climate change problem solving. These articles often come from and contribute to the course.