Climate Science and the 2012 Election
Climate Science and the 2012 Election
I came from a family that subscribed, in the 1960s, to both the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists and Technology Review. The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists is the magazine that, during the Cold War, famously published a clock set a few minutes before midnight. This clock was the evaluation of those at the Bulletin of how far we were from the, well as my grade-school self understood it, the end of the world. The cause for concern for the end of the world was nuclear war.
I have had cause to recall my Cold War childhood recently when my sister told the story of my brother going to roof of his building during the 1965 Northeast Blackout with a fine bottle of wine – or perhaps, cognac, to await the end of the world. His presumption was that the blackout was the darkening of the cities to make them more difficult targets for the bombers. I remember, in the 1960s, finding comfort when the new issue of the Bulletin would come and the clock had not moved forward, and I was quite excited if it moved backwards. I was surprised, recently, when I read that Bulletin had moved the clock one minute closer to midnight because of “inadequate progress on nuclear weapons reduction and proliferation, and continuing inaction on climate change …” Looking at their website you will see that the Bulletin maintains efforts in Biosecurity, Nuclear Weapons, Nuclear Power, and Climate Change. The article by Cohen and Miller, Climate Change 2011: A Status Review of US Policy is an excellent summary of the current situation in the US. The final sentence of their essay is, “That action is extremely unlikely to occur unless climate change comes to be seen as a practical, rather than ideological, issue.”
Looking at the political landscape, climate change has fallen from the political discussion; it is a subject that cannot be talked about(some of my writings). Maxwell Boykoff has an excellent op-ed piece in the Washington Post entitled A Dangerous Shift in Obama’s ‘climate change’ Rhetoric. At the center of this piece is how climate change has implicitly been consumed in discussions of energy security, alternative energy, and clean energy. Though the warming of our climate is strongly linked to our burning of fossil fuels, there are many ways to achieve energy security and to develop alternative energy that do not address the causes of global warming. The pursuit of clean energy depends on the definition of “clean,” and this word is easily co-opted by, for example, the reduction of mercury emissions from coal.
Ultimately, we have to talk about management of the climate if we are to address the problems of human-caused global warming. We cannot address one societal challenge with the idea that we will fix the climate change problem by good fortune. When I teach this idea in class, I invoke my experience in management and, namely, it is simply not responsible management to anticipate achieving an important result without someone, some organization, having the responsibility for delivering that result.
Yet we live in a time when politicians are vilified and run out of office when they talk about climate and climate change. As Boykoff noted in his piece, President Obama avoids the climate issue because it is such a political hot button that it completely disrupts and halts progress on any issue where it is invoked. There is the recent incident where an essay on climate change was purged from a collection being put together by Newt Gingrich. I like to think that a couple of the candidates pulled out of the Republican primaries because they felt that their integrity would be too seriously comprised by having to, essentially, lie in order to obtain the trust of their voters.
Bob Inglis was voted out of Congress in 2010. Recently he wrote a piece Conservative Means Standing with Science on Climate Change. Ultimately, Inglis is arguing that if ALL costs of our energy use are incorporated into the equation, then the cost of fossil fuels would be much higher and alternative sources of energy would be more attractive. This coupled with elimination of all subsidies for energy costs, Inglis argues, would allow the market to make the right decision about energy and, hence, the climate. This full-cost accounting is enticing in its philosophical simplicity, but there are many profound implications. It does require accepting the notion that our carbon dioxide waste is harmful to the environment, the assignment of cost to that harm, and a process of linking that cost to energy sources.
As a strategy, addressing issues of clean energy, energy independence and energy security are more politically pragmatic than addressing issues of climate change. They offer a path towards addressing climate change; they are part of the best-we-can-do-at-this-time strategy. However, our inability to actually talk about solving the climate change problem means that we will not address the problem; we will elevate our risks; we will continue to impact negatively our economic and technological competitiveness.
It has fascinated me over the years at how both elected officials and government appointees make far more sense in what they say after they are outside of their government positions. I was a minor manager in the government, and even at my level, I was motivated to saying and doing things that were not the best thing to do to address a problem. Rather, what I did was the expedient and possible and it did advance the problem, but it was not either the best or most cost effective decision. This places the post-government truth teller, like Inglis, into one of the most important roles in advancing difficult problems like climate change. It also, however, points out the stunning inefficiency and ineffectiveness of our politically based determination of priorities in the development of knowledge-based environmental policy. We look knowledge in the face and deny its existence. We make our convenient arguments for the need for more research in the ill-posed pursuit of the illusive final facts. We fall into the diversion-motivated process of always asking for the next piece of information in what can be a never ending series of information discovery.
I found the October/November 1969 Technology Review in a box of Space-Age memorabilia I packed up from childhood. This issue was entitled “Man Among the Planets,” and the first article was “The Modification of the Planet Earth by Man,” by Gordon J. F. MacDonald. MacDonald in 1969 argued that we had already altered the planet, and that changes produced by humans were already at the scale “caused by nature.” He warned that we needed to do research into large-scale, man-made, and inadvertent changes to our environment. He called for the development of climate prediction. Since 1969 we have taken the observations, we have developed the theory, and we have determined unequivocally that the Earth has warmed and that we the fuel-using people are the primary reason of the warming. As MacDonald called for in 1969, we have placed a lot of emphasis on climate and environmental research, and the results of that research have provided actionable information – knowledge. We look at that knowledge in eye and, as a society, we deny it. We look away. Perhaps, if we look away then it is not really there.
Looking forward to the 2012 election, I don’t expect that climate change will be an oft articulated issue. The issue out front will be jobs, and the prominent link will be made between the exploitation of fossil fuels, new jobs, and energy security. Our approach to climate change will remain quietly in the hands of those savvy enough to use the unique knowledge provided by climate projections and those post-government truth tellers who no longer have to look away.
Reader Comments
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Imagine if this summer we saw temps 25 degrees below normal in the US.
They would be screaming at top of their Lungs, SEE, SEE, SEE!!!
Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential
Scared of Science
Posted: 01/31/2012 2:50 pm
Obama opens door to offshore wind power along mid-Atlantic coast
Interior Secretary Ken Salazar announced plans Thursday to open four new wind-leasing regions for wind farms along the mid-Atlantic coast. States look forward to a positive economic impact.
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Dozens Die in European Winter
It may not have felt very cold in most of the U.S., but in Central and Eastern Europe a brutal cold snap has killed at least 48 people so far. Ukrainian authorities say 30 people have died of hypothermia in recent days alone. Temperatures in Kiev are 10 below zero Fahrenheit and are projected to be about two below in Moscow today. It's normally about 18 degrees in Moscow at this time of year. In Prague, where the cold has also damaged train tracks, authorities are setting up tents for an estimated 3,000 homeless people.
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Here is a quote from Henry Kissinger at a meeting of the Bilderberg Group in 1991:
"Today, America would be outraged if U.N. troops
entered Los Angeles to restore order. Tomorrow they will be grateful! This is especially true if they were told that there were an outside threat from beyond, whether real or promulgated, that threatened our very existence. It is then that all peoples of the world will plead to deliver them from this evil. The one thing every man fears is the unknown. When presented with this scenario, individual rights will be willingly relinquished for the guarantee of their well-being granted to them by the World Government."
Sea Surface Anomalies
Note the Cutoff Eddy Ring in the Western GOM and its size this Winter
..compared to last year at this time.
..the GFS 12Z 168 cranks out a Novel thing,
We almost got there with The Patriot Act. "Patriot", my posterior!
At least you are being deceptively honest :)
Show us the graph of aggregate age per record so we can see it from the data base you have. Should be simple.
BTW, this should not happen in a warming world......
No worries, Mate. I work with Cajun Folk every week.
The Marine is a good man at heart, just on the other side like James Carville. No offense intended, but I will respond when prompted. Go Pats.
: )
Actually, James Jogs in the Park where I walk the Dog, across from Tulane University on St. Charles,across from Audubon Park.
His wife usually runs as well.
They nice folk.
But Im Irish, not no Cajun, cher.
I'll get a pic one day with Him for ya.
Carville's Dad was a interesting Guy,A Postmaster, and his Family story is a good one to read.
Chester James Carville, Jr
11:27AM GMT 19 Dec 2011
Comments18 Comments
Several clothing and department store chains have cut prices or closed outlets and shares in surfwear company Billabong today fell to a record low. The company said its profit could fall by as much as 26 per cent.
The unseasonal damp cool conditions – including the coldest start in Sydney since 1960 – has been blamed for a slump in Christmas shopping and big falls in sales of clothing and shoes.
"Clothing retailers are still doing it fairly tough out there," said Russell Zimmerman, from The Australian Retailers Association. "The weather has been too cold for them – they need that really good run of hot weather and they haven't seen it."
The rain and cold, blamed on the La Nina weather cycle, has affected much of Australia's eastern seaboard. Two weeks ago, the city of Brisbane recorded its coldest December day for 123 years.
The poor weather has forced stores to heavily discount of swimwear and summer clothing, with the big department store chain David Jones dropping prices by 30 per cent.
The cold is indiscriminate.
The forecast says a
half inch accumulation;
but weathermen lie.
Haiku
By Lori
Uhhhh, they may want to bring that dog inside. They can warm each other and that dog looks like it can use some warming.
Gotta love Spencer's chart and that illogical (and by his own admission meaningless) 3rd order polynomial trendline. Why do you suppose he doesn't display a linear trendline? Or a logarithmic one? Or, if he insists on a polynomial one,why not a 2nd order one, or a 5th or 6th order one, each of which swoops upward at the end? Care to take a wild guess? ;-)
In order for the 32-year linear trendline to go flat (much less negative), the temp this month would have had to plunge to -30C or so, a drop from December nearly 137 times greater than what actually occurred.
Ouch...
How about an analogy to help you: Football: Mother Nature is punting. It seems like a lot of yardage, but it is shortlived (usually) and hurts the situation rather than help it.
The same change that brings the cold from the frigid North to Mid Europe allows warmth to enter the North. It's like leaving your icebox open on a summer day when the HVAC is borken. Yeah, it feels cold right there but you know it won't last and it won't help.
The Energy Secretary is recommending we export some of the natural gas we're getting through the nasty fracking process. He says the small price increase Americans consumers will have to pay to heat their homes will be balanced by the price increase the oil barons will be able to put into their pockets. It remains to be seen if any Americans (other than the oil barons) will accept this logic.
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Worldwide this is what the temperature means and anomalies looked like on 1/31/12:
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Reminds me somewhat of last year when it was warmer some mornings on the coast of Greenland than on my back porch here in VA. If we're going to get the cold here this year I hope it is soon, fruit trees will be budding out soon if they are not already doing so.
The record pages suffered a glitch last night, and hasn't updated yet; I imagine there were a few hundred record highs, or high minimums, set or tied yesterday, though we'll see.
Speaking of: the ratio for Wednesday stands at 320 to 4, or exactly 80-to-1. Not very February-like, if you ask me.
UPDATE: The numbers for yesterday have been added (though they won't be complete until tomorrow or Sunday); there were 133 total high records, and 0 low records. For the month-to-date, then, the ratio is 453 to 4, or 113.25 to 1. Egads...
One thing some people seem to forget: when La Nina is present, global land temps are suppressed. But there's still the same amount of solar energy coming in, and there's still abundant CO2 to hold it in, and that heat isn't simply disappearing; it is, rather, moving into the deep seas. When El Nino conditions return, some of that oceanic heat is released into the atmosphere, heating things up on the surface. IOW, the oceans are like a bank into which heat is deposited during La Ninas, and withdrawn during El Ninos.
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What was comment 62? I've been absent today. Had to plow my driveway twice today (among other things). Didn't Rookie ask where the snow was?
Not me, man. I don't like too much snow. I can assure you that I am not looking for any snow. The vast majority of the people in the lower 48 is probably looking for snow, but that ain't me.
Increasing prevalence of extreme summer temperatures in the U.S.
"Analysis of observations and climate model results shows that previously rare (5th percentile) summertime average temperatures are presently occurring with greatly increased frequency in some regions of the 48 contiguous United States. Broad agreement between observations and a mean of results based upon 16 global climate models suggests that this result is more consistent with the consequences of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations than with the effects of natural climate variability. This conclusion is further supported by a statistical analysis based on resampling of observations and model output. The same climate models project that the prevalence of previously extreme summer temperatures will continue to increase, occurring in well over 50% of summers by mid-century."
Northern Hemisphere temperature patterns in the last 12 centuries
"We analyse the spatio-temporal patterns of temperature variability over Northern Hemisphere land areas, on centennial time-scales, for the last 12 centuries using an unprecedentedly large network of temperature-sensitive proxy records. Geographically widespread positive temperature anomalies are observed from the 9th to 11th centuries, similar in extent and magnitude to the 20th century mean. A dominance of widespread negative anomalies is observed from the 16th to 18th centuries. Though we find the amplitude and spatial extent of the 20th century warming is within the range of natural variability over the last 12 centuries, we also find that the rate of warming from the 19th to the 20th century is unprecedented in the context of the last 1200 yr. The positive Northern Hemisphere temperature change from the 19th to the 20th century is clearly the largest between any two consecutive centuries in the past 12 centuries. These results remain robust even after removing a significant number of proxies in various tests of robustness showing that the choice of proxies has no particular influence on the overall conclusions of this study."
21st-century multi-model subtropical precipitation declines are mostly mid-latitude shifts
"Declines in subtropical precipitation are a robust response to modeled 21st century global warming. Two suggested mechanisms are the “dry-get-drier” intensification of existing subtropical dry zones due to the thermodynamic increase in vapor transport, and the poleward expansion of these same dry zones due to poleward shifts in the modeled general circulation. Here, subtropical drying in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report multi-model archive is compared to each of these two mechanisms. Each model's particular, biased, seasonally and zonally varying mean state is considered relative to the location of that model's predicted changes, and these relationships are recorded in a common framework that can be compared across models... High-latitude precipitation increases are the most robust precipitation changes of all in this framework."
Well, at least a night class in 'what is a relevant analogy' would help.
Mitt Romney and global climate change
Was I too harsh yesterday in expressing surprise that Mitt Romney was sticking by his support of the minimum wage rather than walking it back in order to win the hearts of more conservative voters?
Consider:
I believe that climate change is occurring. ... I also believe that human activity is a contributing factor. I am uncertain how much of the warming, however, is attributable to man and how much is attributable to factors out of our control....from "No Apology," Mitt Romney's book, 2010
I believe the world is getting warmer. I can't prove that, but I believe based on what I read that the world is getting warmer -- and -- and number two, I believe that humans contribute to that. I don't know how much our contribution is to that 'cause I know there's been -- there have been periods of -- of greater heat and -- and warmth in the past, but I believe that we contribute to that, and so I think it's important for us to reduce our emissions of pollutants and greenhouse gases that may well be significant contributors to the climate change and the global warming that you're seeing....Mitt Romney during a town hall at the University of New Hampshire, June 2, 2011
My view is that we don't know what's causing climate change on this planet. And the idea of spending trillions and trillions of dollars to try to reduce CO2 emissions is not the right course for us...Mitt Romney Oct. 6, 2011, during a fundraiser at Pittsburgh's Consol Energy Center
Romney told the New Hampshire Union leader in an interview that he sees no contradiction in these statements:
One, I believe what I said before, I think it's getting warmer. Two, I believe we contribute to it. And three, I don't know by how much -- a lot or a little. And I am not willing to adopt multitrillion dollar programs to reduce greenhouse gases in America. They don't call it America warming, they call it global warming.
But by creating a false choice -- either spend "trillions and trillions" in an effort to curb greenhouse gases or shrug it off and cede to ignorance -- Romney tries to have the issue both ways.
Flip flop or dodge? You make the call.
Yep, 230k plus new jobs and an 8.3% unemployment rate eh? They just did not tell you that nearly 1.2 million unemployed people were removed from the labor force calculations last month. Just like Climate Change models, they only give you what they want you to know.
January was the 23rd straight month of employment growth (note: that's not unemployment; that's the number of jobs being created). Say, let's go to a handy graphic (NOTE: red bars denote months during which previous dead skunk in the middle of the road was in power; blue bars indicate months during which the current occupant of the White House was getting it done.):
Show us U6,,,,,,, oh deceptive one.
Then confirm how many left the actual counted ranks of the unemployed with no job last month!!
Yep' that's right.
You spin with no axle
LOL! How sad............
Did you make that graph too? Nice source.
Just as with climate or weather data, the source data behind any graphic I use is openly available; I never use unavailable data as people like Joe Bastardi, Roger Pielke, or Delingpole do.
Neapolitan, Thanks for the update. I should have given them a chance to get all the data in.
Those who are expounding so on the low temperatures in Europe should take a minute to check a globe or map. I'm always amazed when I realize that 99% of Europe is farther north than I am in VA and that most of Europe is north of Montreal, a city also known to get rather chilly in the middle of winter. What remains very, very strange is this winter's North American weather.
Finally, someone on one of the blogs has been wondering about the polar bears freezing in Alaska this winter. Check out the biology of the polar bear. At this time of year they are very snug hibernating in a den under the snow not wandering around freezing. The bears are doing the same things they've been doing for thousands of years. Their problems start in spring when they emerge and have to find some food on a rapidly dwindling summer sea ice cover. Why that summer ice cover is shrinking should be the concern of anyone who really cares about the plight of the polar bears.
Yes, the cold in Europe has been deep. But it's also been geographically confined. For instance, Svalbard, Norway, which is north of the Arctic Circle, has been running 15-25 degrees above normal for the past several days, and is expected to do so again a few times this week. Rain is expected there on Tuesday. Rain. At 79 degrees North. In the first week of February. When the sun hasn't risen for months.
Confined? It's snowing in southern Italy:
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I believe someone said there is a sucker born every minute. If you have to look around to find the sucker it is you.
How novel..
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