SLU's Tropical Weather Blog

Early morning satellite pictures indicate that the tropical wave located in the Central Atlantic has gotten better organised overnight and is showing signs of a tightening low level circulation, deeper convection near the center at 8n 35w and some anti-cyclonic outflow in the upper levels. The shear is low and the SST's are about 82F along the path of the system so it has a great chance to continue to gain organisation. However, it will have to win the battle with climatology in order to develop into a tropical cyclone. This could very well be a sign of what type of season we should expect. The dominant Bermuda-Azores high pressure system will steer the systems westwards like in 2004 and they will be less inclined to recurve early like last year.