Tropical Activity Globally Quiet
Tropical cyclone 13S had strengthened enough yesterday to get itself a named Hilwa, but couldn't keep it long. This morning Tropical cyclone Hilwa dissipated over open waters as a minimal tropical cyclone, and our long lived friend Giovanna has also dissipated, just before Hilwa. As a result, we are left with worldwide tropical activity in a lull, and all basins are quiet for now. This may not last long though, as the NOGAPS and GFS have hinted as some possible development this weekend in the Southern Indian basin. The Southwest Pacific basin has remained quiet for over a week now, with no development probable until the weekend.
EIR satellite image of the SW Pacific basin, credit: CIMSS, NHC.
EIR satellite image of the Southern Indian basin, credit: CIMSS, NHC.
Tropical Cyclone Forecast
The NOGAPS, GFS and ECMWF bring a large system to life to the northeast of Madagascar in 1-3 days, and take it southwestward to Madagascar. The NOGAPS and GFS also develop a system in the central southern Indian ocean in about 6 days, and move it north to northeast with little strengthening. A system is forecast to develop by the NOGAPS in the Southwest Pacific basin, around the 6 day mark.
No development is forecast for the southwest Pacific basin by the GFS or ECMWF.
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Thanks all for stopping in to this short little post. My next post may not be for another week if the basins remain quiet, but with information from above they probably will not be quiet for too much longer. I hope you all have a blessed week ahead of you!
Reader Comments
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Thanks MA. I believe your right about the models starting too quick, but if so then that could only be blamed on the NOGAPS and GFS. The ECMWF gives the system 3-4 days to develop from now.
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