Skyepony's WunderBlog |
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| Posted by: Skyepony, 14:06 GMT le 01 juillet 2011 | +4 |
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78 ° F
Partiellement nuageux
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West Eau Gallie
Melbourne, FL
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| Elevation: | 29 ft |
| Température: | 76.6 ° F |
| Point de rosée: | 70.7 ° F |
| Humidité: | 82% |
| Vent: | 9.0 mph from the SE |
| Rafale de vent: | 9.0 mph |
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Updated: 20:17 EDT le 19 mai 2013
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Forge Mountain
Mills River, NC
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| Elevation: | 2540 ft |
| Température: | 66.9 ° F |
| Point de rosée: | 62.3 ° F |
| Humidité: | 85% |
| Vent: | Calme |
| Rafale de vent: | 0.0 mph |
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Updated: 20:17 EDT le 19 mai 2013
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APRSWXNET Etowah NC US
Etowah, NC
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| Elevation: | 2376 ft |
| Température: | 67.0 ° F |
| Point de rosée: | 64.0 ° F |
| Humidité: | 91% |
| Vent: | Calme |
| Rafale de vent: | 0.0 mph |
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Updated: 19:12 EDT le 19 mai 2013
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Description of ichiban eggplant (long skinny purple)
These are absolutely wonderful. Note in the description one blogger is already growing them in the front yard (mine are safely in back, between the now defunct tomatoes and carrots).
The flowers they produce are absolutely wonderful. While they do better in full sun they also can tolerate shade.
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #15
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM MA-ON (T1106)
21:00 PM JST July 13 2011
==========================================
SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In Sea Near Minami tori shima
At 12:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Ma-On (970 hPa) located at 19.8N 149.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 10 knots
Dvorak Intensity: T3.5
Storm Force Winds
==================
60 NM from the center
Gale Force Winds
================
270 NM from the center in north quadrant
200 NM from the center in south quadrant
Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 20.8N 145.4E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon)
48 HRS: 21.9N 141.0E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon)
72 HRS: 22.9N 136.9E - 100 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon)
915 hPa central pressure in 72 hours.
Hades~ Hadn't strengthened much the last 12hrs.
EnergyMoron~ That's them. Thanks..
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 13 JUL 2011 Time : 150000 UTC
Lat : 20:03:01 N Lon : 149:06:41 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.2 / 956.9mb/ 94.8kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.7 4.4 4.4
Center Temp : -71.2C Cloud Region Temp : -73.8C
Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION
Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS
Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 100km
- Environmental MSLP : 1004mb
Satellite Viewing Angle : 23.9 degrees
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #17
TYPHOON MA-ON (T1106)
3:00 AM JST July 14 2011
==========================================
SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In Sea Near The Marianas
At 18:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Ma-On (965 hPa) located at 19.9N 148.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots with gusts of 100 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 13 knots
Dvorak Intensity: T4.0
Storm Force Winds
==================
80 NM from the center
Gale Force Winds
================
270 NM from the center in north quadrant
200 NM from the center in south quadrant
Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 20.8N 143.7E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon)
48 HRS: 21.5N 139.2E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon)
72 HRS: 22.9N 135.6E - 100 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon)
Korea has 920 hPa and China has 930 hPa
For the locals: A Delta IV rocket is scheduled to launch from Cape Canaveral AFS tonight. The launch window is 2:45-3:04am EDT.
Hades~ The environment it's embed in is kinda low..1004mb. So big though..I'm thinking 915-920mb. If it really pulls it together it could go so much lower.
You can about see the eyewall replacements in the steps of the intensity chart.
Will be by when on full internet (this card is really slow)
Stay well!
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #27
TYPHOON MA-ON (T1106)
9:00 AM JST July 15 2011
==========================================
SUBJECT: Category Four Typhoon In Sea Near Ogasawara Shoto
At 0:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Ma-On (950 hPa) located at 20.4N 143.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 85 knots with gusts of 120 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 11 knots
Dvorak Intensity: T5.0
Storm Force Winds
==================
100 NM from the center
Gale Force Winds
================
350 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
250 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 21.3N 137.5E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon)
48 HRS: 22.7N 133.9E - 100 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon)
72 HRS: 25.1N 131.7E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon)
Additional Information
====================
Typhoon will move at the same speed for the next 72 hours
Typhoon will move west for the next 24 hours then move west northwest
Typhoon will keep present intensity for the next 24 hours
Final initial Dvorak number will be T6.5 after 24 hours
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
TROPICAL STORM TOKAGE (T1107)
12:00 PM JST July 15 2011
==========================================
SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines
At 3:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Tokage (1002 hPa) located at 14.1N 132.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast slowly
Dvorak Intensity: T2.5
Gale Force Winds
================
130 NM from the center in south quadrant
70 NM from the center in north quadrant
Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 14.5N 133.5E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 15 JUL 2011 Time : 183000 UTC
Lat : 20:49:18 N Lon : 139:23:37 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.8 / 938.7mb/109.8kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.8 6.2 6.2
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km
Center Temp : -43.8C Cloud Region Temp : -76.5C
Scene Type : EYE
Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS
Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 165km
- Environmental MSLP : 1002mb
Satellite Viewing Angle : 25.2 degrees
Hades~ Can I ask what Tokage means?
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #33
TYPHOON MA-ON (T1106)
3:00 AM JST July 16 2011
==========================================
SUBJECT: Category Four Typhoon In Sea South Of Japan
At 18:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Ma-On (950 hPa) located at 20.8N 139.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 85 knots with gusts of 120 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 9 knots
Dvorak Intensity: T5.0
Storm Force Winds
==================
100 NM from the center
Gale Force Winds
================
350 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
300 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 22.1N 135.6E - 105 knots (CAT 5/Very Intense Typhoon)
48 HRS: 26.1N 133.1E - 100 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon)
72 HRS: 30.3N 132.7E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon)
Japan Meteorological Agency thinks the cyclone could reach around 130 knots (1 min) sustained winds and become a super typhoon
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
STY MA-ON 1106 (1106) INITIAL TIME 151800 UTC
00HR 20.6N 139.5E 940HPA 50M/S
30KTS 380KM
50KTS 120KM
P12HR W 20KM/H
P+24HR 21.7N 135.2E 915HPA 60M/S
P+48HR 24.1N 131.0E 915HPA 60M/S
P+72HR 28.5N 129.4E 935HPA 50M/S
P+96HR 31.5N 130.9E 945HPA 45M/S
P+120HR 34.4N 137.4E 970HPA 33M/S=
120 knots from China Meteorological Administration in the next 24 hours
mid 90's with heat indexes of 105+
Don't think my area had this type of advisory since 2005.
Well that explains the lizard on the chest. All I could find was this undead character..
Description
Tokage, a soul cursed to forever wander the world, unable to rest nor to join the reincarnation cycle, is now looking for its release.
This time Tokage enters the body of a newly dead girl named Yuuka, a shrine maiden. This body requires continual recharging from a highly spiritual person, whom the dead person must have had an attachment to. This person is Shinobu, a younger boy, who also lives in that shrine.
Thus starts the adventures of Tokage and Shinobu in a world gone mad, amidst the chaos and carnage that gravitates to an unsent soul draw.
Sorry about the heat ya'll. Noticed ya'll been lit up with heat lately.
Bogon~ suns just coming up. Looks like there may be a circulation left. Ma-on is certainly eating all the convection.
It is..check out that link. She's pretty hot for a manga.
Now the sun has been up a few frames, it's obvious Tokage is no more.. ASCAT conferms~ The lowest orange arrows are around where Korea last had her.
Just saw your photos over in LC's header. Neat. You must have great bunch of Space Shuttle memories tucked away.
Stuck under the big "H" here with no rain in sight for a long while.
Thanks for your comment in my blog.
:)
As for WPAC Ma-on ate everything else in the basin..92E & Tokage are gone.
Barefoot~ Hope you get your rain soon..
Aqua~I think it's barely more east of me now. Moving SSE
201107170000 29.3 -78.8 20
201107161800 30 -79.1 20
HWRF is favoring you..
Blu~ I could see the lightning from it there for a while. Was too far off to hear it. I wundered what the show looked like from the beach.
Told Rain last night it was (sooner or later) gonna get taken to the northeast. He did not like that.
He showed me the blob coming offa Africa, I said sorry, SAL or shear's gonna kill it. He did not like that, either.
Today it'll dry up, n we gotta mow. I am not Rain's friend this weekend...
On the other hand..a very recent kitchen counter-top installation has taught me to not be so jaded about things that don't appear likely to ever happen..
17/1145 UTC 28.1N 79.3W T1.0/1.0 98L
17/0545 UTC 28.8N 78.6W TOO WEAK 98L
Fresh windsat
cool on the new countertop.
Clouds & wind made for an awesome pony ride. Took Skye out to the swamp one last time before it's swamped for the summer. It was blooming. Well not the sawgrass so not expecting a major or anything.. Skye ran & screamed.. he was like riding King of the Wind today.
It was only half the kitchen but it was only tore up 1 day, not 6 weeks:) I'm still in shock.
Transmitted: 17th day of the month at 20:37Z
Corrected: This observation corrected a previous observation.
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 304)
Mission Purpose: Investigate second suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 14
A. Time of Center Fix: 17th day of the month at 20:16:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 27°34'N 78°11'W (27.5667N 78.1833W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 130 miles (209 km) to the ENE (63°) from West Palm Beach, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 24kts (~ 27.6mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 5 nautical miles (6 statute miles) to the NW (310°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 60° at 25kts (From the ENE at ~ 28.8mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 2 nautical miles (2 statute miles) to the NW (320°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1010mb (29.83 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 189m (620ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 188m (617ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 21°C (70°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 1,500 feet
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Wind Outbound: 42kts (~ 48.3mph) in the east quadrant at 20:25:40Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 42kts (~ 48.3mph) in the east quadrant at 20:25:40Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet
Transmitted: 17th day of the month at 21:08Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 304)
Mission Purpose: Investigate second suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 16
A. Time of Center Fix: 17th day of the month at 20:54:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 27°30'N 78°06'W (27.5N 78.1W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 133 miles (214 km) to the ENE (66°) from West Palm Beach, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 45kts (~ 51.8mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles) to the NE (41°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 60° at 43kts (From the ENE at ~ 49.5mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles) to the NE (41°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1009mb (29.80 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 178m (584ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 178m (584ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 21°C (70°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 1,500 feet
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 43kts (~ 49.5mph) in the northeast quadrant at 20:45:20Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet
Transmitted: 17th day of the month at 22:04Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 304)
Mission Purpose: Investigate second suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 19
A. Time of Center Fix: 17th day of the month at 21:51:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 27°32'N 78°01'W (27.5333N 78.0167W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 138 miles (223 km) to the ENE (66°) from West Palm Beach, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 35kts (~ 40.3mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 29 nautical miles (33 statute miles) to the SE (137°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 164° at 36kts (From the SSE at ~ 41.4mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 29 nautical miles (33 statute miles) to the SE (137°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1009mb (29.80 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 214m (702ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 213m (699ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 23°C (73°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 1,500 feet
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 0 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Wind Outbound: 44kts (~ 50.6mph) in the northwest quadrant at 21:55:00Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 44kts (~ 50.6mph) in the northwest quadrant at 21:55:00Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet
see its going SSE a 2 mph right now... Doesn't seem to be stacked very well... can see the low level sliping SSE...
Yeah~ I'm having trouble getting behind NE till it stops moving SSE. That ridge is digging a little deeper than models expected. Should move off NE if it doesn't get shoved too far. Looks detached from that from now too.
Transmitted: 18th day of the month at 05:35Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 308)
Storm Number & Year: 02L in 2011
Storm Name: Bret (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 04
A. Time of Center Fix: 18th day of the month at 5:12:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 27°09'N 77°59'W (27.15N 77.9833W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 132 miles (212 km) to the ENE (77°) from West Palm Beach, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,454m (4,770ft) at 400mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 49kts (~ 56.4mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 5 nautical miles (6 statute miles) to the NW (310°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 48° at 43kts (From the NE at ~ 49.5mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 8 nautical miles (9 statute miles) to the NW (316°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1002mb (29.59 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,462m (4,797ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,473m (4,833ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 400mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 5 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 43kts (~ 49.5mph) in the northwest quadrant at 5:09:40Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 51kts (~ 58.7mph) in the southeast quadrant at 5:16:40Z
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
Banding North and East on radar
Scaled this back to the last 12hr model error since Bret is so young. So who's in the lead?
GFDN out front with a ~8nm error, slight lead over AEMN & AP01 (~10). AVNO, HWRF & NGP2 chasing with ~14/15. Unfortunately I got nothing on how the BAM models are doing.. NAM is doing better than usual with ~21, rest of the majors are trailing GFDL 33, CMC & NGPS 45.
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