Skyepony's WunderBlog

Checking some average model error stats (thru 8-4 12z) for Emily..error in nm 0hr, 24hr, 48hr & etc..

AEMN 36.4 75.9 95.2 134.1 174.6 -
AP01 47.7 78.4 86.0 151.8 160.7 186.4
BAMS - 93.5 92.4 123.2 105.8 139.5
CMC 59.6 94.0 101.7 127.2 127.5 251.8
GFDL 16.6 97.4 120.3 169.5 152.0 199.9
GFDN 12.6 60.4 - - - -
HWRF 16.2 89.2 147.2 234.4 322.1 458.8
LBAR 0 103.4 124.4 177.1 266.1 334.3
LGEM 0 99.6 136.9 193.9 243.7 265.7
NGP2 0 25.1 31.2 132.4 - -
OFCL 2.0 92.5 120.7 114.9 200.5 -
TVCN 0 94.4 108.3 163.6 198.1 251.8
XTRP 0 135.0 206.1 256.1 341.6 462.6

Morning all~ Surface Trough Emily stretches from the SE Bahamas though eastern Cuba, north of Jamaica to near the Little Cayman Islands. Best chance for an Emily reprise is Saturday though sooner isn't out of the question. As for the Low Level circulation, it crossed Haiti's peninsula last night then was off the north side of the SE tip of Cuba. Other lower level circulations formed supported more by the midlevel circulation crossing Hispaniola. Pretty good convection started firing from the south side of East Cuba. There is alot of mountains to deal with there. The original LLC can be seen on RGB headed WNW, currently located just south of Andros Island. This weak LLC is in a small but decent area of lower shear ~5-10kts.

Aqua~ I couldn't put a bowl on that thing. It was close to the ceiling in my laundry closet..poised to jump. I've never thought of shooting one before or anything in the house really. It was that big. Like you wouldn't use a flyswatter on a mouse.. Real weak BB gun too.

Yeah seems bad year for sketters in alot of places. Was a real reprive in WNC.

Ogal~ the models have been doing awful with Emily..even more so with her being a trough & all.

LowerCal~ Thanks so much for launch updates.. Camera is ready!

Juno is set to lift off from Cape Canaveral in 15 mins. Weather is a go. Juno will do some weather observation on the planet Jupiter in ~5 years if all goes well. Awesome live feed here.

Launch was beautiful..photos up!

Something for the locals..

The ENSO Precipitation Index (ESPI) for the last 30 days is 0.55 ...indicating La Nina is going to try & make a return.

Yesterday evening the kids helped me get a good start on the fall garden. Planted, pole bean, yellow squash, Spilanthes, acorn squash, okra, zucchini, pumpkin(meant to plant 8-1 to be done by Halloween), cucumber(a month early), banana pepper, broccoli Raab & watermelon.

I'm siding with the MLB NWS & the ants~ saying chance of rain for east & interior FL today..

Just because you're not wreaking havoc and destruction doesn't mean you aren't having a good time.

Had to read this out loud to the kids.. Most sensible thing I've seen all my short day so far.

Quoting Bogon:
Well, Auntie Em does get to rain on everybody's beach party.

We're all ready for a blob party here.

Fresh ASCAT

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 6th day of the month at 23:00Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 307)
Tropical Depression: Number 5 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 14
Observation Number: 15
A. Time of Center Fix: 6th day of the month at 22:21:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 27°00'N 78°16'W (27.N 78.2667W)
B. Center Fix Location: 113 miles (181 km) to the E (80°) from West Palm Beach, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D & E. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: Not Available
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 334° at 20kts (From the NNW at ~ 23.0mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 19 nautical miles (22 statute miles) to the WNW/NW (304°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1011mb (29.85 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 25°C (77°F) at a pressure alt. of 304m (997ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 25°C (77°F) at a pressure alt. of 295m (968ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 23°C (73°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Level: 1,500 feet
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 3 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Wind Outbound: 38kts (~ 43.7mph) in the south quadrant at 22:36:00Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 38kts (~ 43.7mph) in the south quadrant at 22:36:00Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet

Emily weakened with the heat of the day..which like most days helped her slip a little farther west. She looks like she wants to get a blob on tonight. Under 10kts of shear, but check that..out of nowhere an anticyclone has set up nearby. These couple & she should fire up.

Ylee~ Don't know anything about the KSC fire. Wasn't noticed earlier. I'd say post the cam but it's dark now so couldn't see where it was.

Aqua~ Mine were in the sprinkler earlier.

Finn~ Paw is a little better, dare say almost well. Feels like one more bone needs to stay solid in there but like it pulled together. Still really cautious with it. The nerve injury has been all better a few weeks now.

Pretty good Quicktime of a TRRM pass on Emily today.

Fresh ASCAT a little over an hour ago..

Good Morning all.. ASCAT hinted lastnight that Emily was finally on the move & sunrise this morning confirms, the LLC has turned out to sea.

92L just stepped off Africa..

That blob stepping off onto the EPAC maybe the next storm.

Gardengrrl~ Just about all of them get it & ya'll seem close.

Hating your drought for you. ENSO doesn't plan on helping it either.

Hey everyone. Straightened out the entry. Emily & Eugene have lost their floaters, products & such as they faded away. 91W must have came & went sometime yesterday. 92W is the healthy blob in the mid WPAC..

Locals~ Good westerly flow across FL bringing showers across from the west & piling them on the east side today.. mostly somewhat brief but could be heavy.

Gro~ Thanks.. I was thinking that too. Even Murbok & Muifah are waning.

Happy rainy day here. .71" so far. If my pony isn't too muddy I think I'll ride him. What a reprieve..

Looks like a low level weak vort headed west to east across central FL, headed right for the mid level vort that gathered up off SEFL earlier today. Decent chance we may see an invest in the next few days off ECFL move away, following Emily.

Wabit~ did you get mine:)

Phish's Tahoe shows tonight & tomorrow sold out so they made them available live on webcast:)

Still misting rain here.

I see more rain is on the way:)

Happy first day back to school locals! Hopefully we are about to make paper from hay here. Little rough starting back to school while partying on west coast time..I guess their not on tour living in a tent outside Tahoe somewhere at the moment..

Saw Food Inc. lastnight. After schooling in big Ag education much didn't surprise. It's amazing how our minds just blocks this stuff out. Well the corn base gassed, Clorox..I don't know what I'm going to do for meat for dinner.

Lots of low level clouds flying over & fast. Lotta water in the air. Not enough to fog the windows though.

92L got a floater.. models want to let Emily have another go around.. 93W got front smacked & 13W is born.

It's a great planting day by the moon calender..cloudy way cooler for most ya'll in the south with a shot at rain..I dare ya'll..throw some seeds to the earth just to see what happens.

There was local grass fed at the farmers market in Mills River cheap as $4 lb. I should have got a cooler full. There's a coo-oop on beachside but they are only open tuesday. We've been back & forth between them & a local butcher that mostly is corn lot & always take hunter friends extras. They haven't come up with any squierl lately.

55º is a treat.. That's window opening weather:)

Why am I not surprised ya'll like squirrel...mmm pan fried...

Wab~ I'm waiting on this FL blob to pull together. I ♥ the low rushing clouds, cooler weather & rain..