Snowstorm coming
I will regularly update this blog today and tomorrow on this quite impressive snowstorm coming. (for Early April standards) MAP SHOWN BELOW
3:00pm update
I haven't explained what the different rates of snow mean to me for this storm on the map and that is obviously important. Basically, the light snow criteria is 1-3 inches, moderate snow 3-8 inches and the heavy snow on the order of 8-12 with higher amounts in the mountains of the northeast. There are no changes to be made on the snow totals map, I'm sticking with it. Here are a few links to track the storm on satellite and radar.
Interactive North American Radar and Infrared Satellite
American High-Resolution Radar Loop
RR Accumulated Snow shows heavy snow breaking out in Massachusetts and New Hampshire at around midnight tonight.
Visible GOES East Satellite Loop
Infrared Eastern North American Satellite Loop (very long loop)
The storm is still organizing itself in the southeast and friday night is when the storm will rapidly deepen into a 972mb low over P.E.I.
Original:
Hi everyone ! This is only a brief blog on the classic nor'easter coming and I have made a map showing where I think snow will fall. The storm will follow a track from about 30miles to the east of Nantucket up through the Bay of Fundy and further northeast across the gulf of St-Lawrence saturday morning.
Main type of precipitation:
"The weather is always interesting." - Jesse Ferrell
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Updated: 20:18 GMT le 31 Mars 2011
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UPDATED Part 2 of 'Global Warming' Project
Scroll down for part 2 global warming subject which focuses on Montreal, Quebec this time
Historical Weather
1940: Strong winds drifted snow to over 1 m, blocking roads to the orphanage near Point-aux-Trembles, QC. Everyday, the nuns expected the snow along the 2.5 km road to be cleared. Meanwhile, two heroes-a milkman and a baker-hauled more than 400 litres of milk and 50 loaves of bread on toboggans daily over the snow drifts to the institution for the 400 small children and babies and many nuns.
Environment Canada forecast for my Area issued at 3:45pm EDT
Normals for March 28th: 6C and -3C
Hello everyone! The weather is extremely boring so I had plenty of motivation to publish the second part of my series on `Global Warming`. I must add that I`m very happy to see that for a week of forecasting a warm-up to slightly above normal temps midweek this week it is really coming and exactly on time. I find it peculiar that Accuweather is forecasting a potential big snowstorm in the big cities for april fools. I doubt it will happen, especially considering temps will be in the 40`s in my area late week but hey, anything can happen...
Montreal, Quebec
Click for a much larger image.
Montreal, Quebec is the second-largest city in all of Canada and the largest in Quebec. In 2006 the metropolitan area of Montreal was home to 3,635,571 inhabitants. The city experiences all kinds of weather from not-so-common blizzards and extreme cold in winter or spring to long heatwaves in the summer to gusty 100km/h northwest winds in autumn. Average temperatures in January are around -10C and in July a warm 20C. Highs are around -6C and 26C respectively. Temperatures have been known to drop to a dangerously cold -35C below a massive arctic High or with the windchill, temperatures can feel as low as -40C on a gusty January night and can rise to a scorching 38C or 100F with 70% humidity which makes the temperature feel more like a dangerous 45C+ or 120F+. Warm, Humid summers and cold dry winters are the norm in this City located in the St-Lawrence river valley. Normal snowfall amounts are between 200-250cm or about 6.6 to 8.2 feet a year.
All time record high: 37.6C (99.6F) August 1st, 1975
All-time record low: -37.8C (-36F) January 15, 1957
As far as global warming goes, there is clear evidence that this region is warming and even though it's not as bad as Labrador's coast, which I talked about on the first part of this series, it still is significant. Records only go back to 1942 but that is enough to suggest global warming is having clear consequences on this region's average climate. Winters and springs are trending much warmer and that has encouraged bedbugs infestations in the area. As a person living close to Montreal, I notice firsthand how winters have significantly warmed. We used to have snow by late-November on the ground and now snow arrives on average in late-December and winters are also much shorter then they used to be. The absence of extreme cold in the last several years is shocking. We have yet to reach a temperature of -30C since 1994 and in quite a few years the lowest temperature doesn't even reach -25C.
Trends per decade
January high +0.06C, low +0.17C
February high +0.18C, low +0.17C
March high +0.16C, low -0.04C
April high +0.27C, low +0.07C
May high +0.15C, low +0.07C
June high +0.05C, low +0.05C
July high -0.03C, low +0.03C
August high +0.02C, low +0.05C
September high +0.11C, low +0.04C
October high -0.25C, low -0.14C
November high +0.11C, low -0.12C
December high +0.30C, low +0.28C
Overall +0.08C
Precipitation +12.8mm or 0.5 inches
UPDATED THE GRAPH, REMOVED 9.8C AVERAGE FOR 1943 AND REPLACED WITH THE CORRECT READING OF 5.3C WHICH MAKES A HUGE DIFFERENCE ON OVERALL MEAN TEMPERATURE TREND. I KNEW SOMETHING WAS FISHY...
The third part in this series will focus on Calgary, Alberta. We are witnessing bug infestations much farther north and pine beetles are slowly destroying forests on the west coast.
"The weather is always interesting." - Jesse Ferrell
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Updated: 05:04 GMT le 29 Mars 2011
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Labrador coast warming
Scroll down for Cartwright, Labrador warming topic
Historical Weather
1950: Lightning shot through the United Church manse near Bala, ON, within 2 m of 2 sleeping children. They escaped injury, as did a baby in an iron crib. A door frame of the manse and its rear porch windows shattered and a 1-m-long piece of wood was driven across a room into a china cabinet. The lightning strikes also burnt out all of Bala's electrical connections and blew out a transformer.
Hello all, hope you are having a great weekend. Woke up to a cool -9C (16F) this morning which is about 6C below normal (11F) and we should get to a high of -1C or if we're lucky 0C (around 32F). Can't wait for more seasonal temps to start coming in by midweek!
Last year we had our warmest March since 1946 and this year we're paying for it! Average March temperature of 2010 for Montreal is 7.8C and this year we're closer to 2.3C so far. A full 5.5C lower.
Environment Canada forecast for my area
Normals: 6C, -3C
Cartwright, Labrador
click for a much larger image
This is part 1 of an eventual 5-part series on temperature variations experienced all over Canada. I've selected regions far and wide apart to show a broader scale. I've also tried to select communities or cities with very different weather.
Located approximately 750km NNW of St-John's, Newfoundland this community experiences firsthand the effects of climate change. Its climate experiences mild summers and very cold winters being at 53 degrees North. The village is glued on the coast of the Labrador Sea and in normal winters, experiences several true blizzards. This region receives extreme amounts of snow in the order of over 400cm (13.1 feet) but just to the southwest of the village the average annual snowfall exceeds 500cm (5m or 16.4feet!) Average temperatures range from -9C in January to a balmy 18 or 19C in July. Of course, there is an atlantic influence which moderates the temperatures. You only need to go approximately 500km inland and average January temperatures are closer to a frigid -20C to -25C. Global warming is very evident in this area. Five of the 8 warmest years since record-keeping began in 1938 have been in the last 15 years and since the early 1990's the climate has warmed significantly (see mean temperature graph). A brief cooldown took place for the 20 year period between 1970 and 1990. Is this a coming trend to increasingly warm temperatures? All signs point to yes. The nearby sea has less and less ice during winter every year which is a major contributor to increasingly warm temperatures in spring.
Trends per decade
January high +0.05C, low -0.04C
February high -0.01C, low -0.12C
March high +0.08C, low -0.11C
April high +0.21C, low +0.16C
May high +0.11C, low +0.04C
June high +0.11C, low +0.11C
July high -0.18C, low -0.06C
August high +0.16C, low +0.1C
September high +0.03C, low +0.03C
October high +0.04C, low +0.1C
November high +0.11C, low +0.07C
December high +0.18C, low +0.18C
Overall +0.05C
Precipitation +20.1mm or 0.79 inches(that's per decade!)
Yearly mean temperature
The slight cooling trend of the 70's and 80's lowers the overall trend but you can see how significant the warming has been since around 1990! 2010 is the warmest year on record (since 1938) which broke the old record standing way back in 2006 and that in itself tied the even older record from 2004. (exxagerated humour intended) This graph doesn't really say anything at all but it makes me speculate and adds further proof that the climate is warming. This warming is probably amplified in the latter part of the year from the less extensive ice cover we are witnessing in the arctic every year. I doubt this warming trend of such extreme amplitude can continue unabated for several years but nothing is set in the stone and nothing is ever expected when it comes to the climate...
Overall precipitation trends
This data was taken from Environment Canada and all I have done is transmitted the data into readable graphs and make it easier to understand. The second part of this series will be Montreal, Quebec.
"The weather is always interesting." - Jesse Ferrell
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Updated: 18:13 GMT le 28 Mars 2011
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The arctic has shifted south to a zone from Manitoba to Northern Quebec....
...not literally of course!
Temperatures are running much below normal across central Canada, the exception being northern Canada where temperatures are just about the same as in the rest of Canada. Temperatures this morning are in the -15C to -25C range which is anywhere from 5C to as much as 15C below normal! And in the 'arctic' temperatures are from -10C to -20C which is above normal and consistent with this type of weather pattern. Let's all move to the arctic, it will feel warmer when you wake up up-there!
Canadian weather at a glance (18z or 2:00pm EDT):
This is the exact kind of setup we had earlier this winter with a blocking pattern over the Labrador sea and an enormous high pressure system centered over northwestern Ontario just shoving all that arctic air southwards. Hopefully, this time around, it won't last nearly as long. By Tuesday though this pattern is going to start to slowly break down. The NAO is also still trending positive as we get into April. The high will weaken and shift southeast into the northeast US ahead of a Alberta-clipper type system due to a pacific storm track shifting into central BC. (see map below) Good news for California with all the record-breaking sierra Nevada snow lately... I don't dare discuss about the long-range, it changes too much.
GFS12z run valid Friday 5:00AM EDT:
Forecast for my area from environment Canada (St-Hubert, Quebec):
Today
Sunny with cloudy periods. Wind west 20 km/h gusting to 40. High -1C. UV index 3 or moderate.
Tomorrow
Sunny. Wind west 20 km/h gusting to 40. Low -11C. High 0C.
Monday
Cloudy with 40 percent chance of flurries. Low -9C High -1C.
Tuesday
A mix of sun and cloud. Low -6C. High 4C.
Wednesday
Sunny. Low -6C. High 6C.
Thursday
Sunny. Low -5C. High 6C.
Friday
A mix of sun and cloud. Low -4C. High 7C.
Normals for this time of year: A high of 6C and a low of -4C so finally some seasonal weather is coming by midweek next week. At least there's a lot of sun in the forecast!
Apart from that the weather is pretty dull across Canada.....
On my next blog I will talk about a project I've just completed showing mean temperatures over the years at select locations across Canada. They are all, obviously, trending warmer, which clarifies Global Warming and proves it. Stay tuned!
"The weather is always interesting." - Jesse Ferrell
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Updated: 02:11 GMT le 27 Mars 2011
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UPDATE March 24th Forecast: More cold!
10:00AM EDT UPDATE:
I am becoming even more confident today that this miserable weather pattern impacting this area will break free by midweek next week. By then, it will look a lot more like a spring weather pattern with up and down temperatures and there might be an active storm track across the great lakes by early April. With the NAO heading towards neutral and the PNA trending towards negative territory in april, this pattern is making me smile because I can't wait to start mountain climbing again in the Adirondacks, Catskills and the Appalachians. The snow cover is still extensive in those mountains and once it's gone I'm heading straight up those mountains! Have a great day everyone! The sun is out at my place....
Here are a couple of pictures showing the impressive view I had the privilege of having trekking up Mount Mansfield, VT in October 2010(click image for full size). I will add the entire album to the wunderground site because photobucket resizes them while the actual size is 3872x2176!:
ORIGINAL POST:
Hello all! I haven't posted here in such a long time, probably because I was in my good years (17-21) in terms of having fun and not caring about the rest. Now that I am a little more mature most of the time, I recall enjoying posting here very much. Loved this community and I can't wait to see what has changed. I know one thing that hasn't changed, my appreciation for general weather and climate. In fact I love it so much that I want to be a Climatologist and will do anything to get there (starting studies, hopefully, this September). My life revolves around the weather and the great outdoors and I have a great number of projects planned or already in progress. I also have a lot of ambitions. I enjoy discussing weather and that's what I'll do in this blog. Alright, enough about me, let's get to the current situation in my area and the surroundings (see map at the bottom of the blog).......
You can clearly see the swath of snow left by the most recent snowstorm roughly encompassing a line from central Minnesota all the way to the Poconos of northeastern Pennsylvania and the Catskills of New York State. Yes, we are still talking about several snowstorms at this time of year but I personally don't know what the fuss is all about. This is a normal winter. We've had a lot of warm winters in the past decade. In fact, just last year, winter was practically done by early March in my area, Montreal, Quebec. Although a late winter like we're witnessing right now is, in my opinion, not a welcomed site I still think we should relish the fact we got a 'cold' winter because I believe they will be increasingly rarer as the decades go by.
This storm left generally good amounts of snow on the order of 15-25cm or 6-10 inches. Here are some snow totals for Southern Ontario(in cm) from Environment Canada.
Toronto Pearson airport............11
Waterloo regional airport.........24.8
Grimsby mountain...............20.4
Hamilton (Mount Hope arpt)........20 (EST'd)
Niagara Falls............15-20
Kitchener Stanley park.........20
London...............12
Of course, at this time of year, with the strong late-March sun snow has a much tougher time accumulating on roadways unless it snows very hard. I am realizing as I write this that I have limited sources for accumulations. If anyone has a website for this sort of information in the US, you would be very kind to tell me about it, thank you!
This pattern, more reminiscent of winter is not going to bulge until Tuesday of next week. By then, it looks like major relief from the cold, unsettled conditions will take shape and the blocking over northeastern Canada will abate. The upper level low spinning in the gulf of St-Lawrence will break free and we will start enjoying more seasonable temperatures.
Current conditions (21Z today or 5pm this afternoon EDT):
Next Tuesday (as you can see, apart from the cold air being even farther south not much has changed):
This run is for Tuesday morning at 8am EDT. You can see a storm coming out of the Rockies and developing in the high plains. We will have to watch this storm for moderate to perhaps heavy snow on the north side and a good round of severe weather in areas that have been spared so far this year. Now, it's still too early to tell if this storm will be like the others or if it will cut across the lakes. The latter is more plausible, in my opinion, with the blocking showing signs of weakening in roughly 5-6 days. We will have to wait and see! Just before this storm, on the weekend there is yet another one poised to bring snow along I-80. That one COULD be the last major snow of the season for these areas... Notice how I'm still in doubt because this winter has been surprisingly snowy and I think it will fade slowly. Kind of like a 2-step forward 1-step back approach.
Meanwhile, try and enjoy the weather we have at the moment. It's the only one you're gonna get for the next 5 days or so.
Lastly, I am working on a project showing temperature variations at select locations across Canada (I plan to use locations across the world later on...) which I am excited about. Results look promising. I will show this to all of you once it's ready. I also want to start my own website so stay tuned!
Rough Forecast Area:
"The weather is always interesting." - Jesse Ferrell
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Updated: 03:46 GMT le 26 Mars 2011
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