Palm Harbor Tropical Forecast and Weather Center

AMO: Atlantic Multidecadal Osillation
AST: Atlantic Standard Time
ATCF: Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting system
BOC: Bay Of Campeche
CATL: Central Atlantic
CARCAH: Chief, Aerial Reconnaissance Coordination, All Hurricanes
CDO: Central Dense Overcast
CISK: Conditional Instability of the Second Kind
CMC: Canadian Meteorological Center
CONUS: CONtinental United States
DOMREP: DOMinican REPublic
EATL: East Atlantic
ECMWF: European Center for Medium range Weather
Forecasting
ENSO: El Nino/Southern Oscillation
EWRC: EyeWall Replacement Cycle
GANTSEC: Greater ANtilles SECtion
GFDL: Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
GFS: Global Forecast System
GOMEX: Gulf Of MEXico
HWRF: Hurricane and Weather Research Forecasting
IRT: In Reference or In Rgeard To
ITCZ: InterTropical Convergence Zone
IVO: In the Vicinity Of
LLC: Low Level Circulation
MCC: Mesoscale Covective Complex
MJO: Madden Julian Oscillation
MM5: FSU Mesoscale Model
MSLP: Mean Sea Level Pressure
NAM: North American Mesoscale Model
NAO: North Atlantic Oscillation
NCATL: North Central Atlantic
NEWD: Northeastward
NHC: National Hurricane Center
NOGAPS: Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction
System
NWD: Northward
OBX: Outer Banks (N.C.)
QBO: Quasi Biennial Oscillation
PDO: Pacific Decadal Oscillation
SAL: Saharan Air Layer
SEUS: SouthEast U.S.
SLOSH: Sea, Lake, and Overland Surge due to Hurricanes
SOI: Southern Oscillation Index
SPC: Storm Prediction Center
SSD: Satellite Services Division
SWEAT: Severe WEAther Threat
SWWD: Southwestward
THCP: Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential
TUTT: Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trof
UKMET: United Kingdom METeorological office
ULL: Upper Level Low
WW3: Wave Watch 3 model.
UTC: Universal Time Coordinated (also known as Zulu time)
XTRP: Not a model. Short for Extrapolation. Dead reckoning plot of a storm if it kept in a straight line, with no other forces acting upon it.

Good evening!

This will have to be short, as I'm getting ready to turn in for the evening.

Based on analysis of Water Vapor loop imagery, current steering layers forecast maps, and the most recent run of the GFS wind shear forecast, I have to concur right now, to a point, with the NHC forecast track. I say partially, as the steering layers maps have the ridge over the extreme wetsren GOMEX/BOC intialized too far north. This could provide a slim chance to slow or even block IKE for a very short time, and if the ridge stays situated where it's at, or moves eastward, could, in combination with the subtropical ridge, cause a weakness to the WNW of IKE. However, this ridge is forecast to retrograde slowly, and would aid in the projected NHC forecast track. Computer models are in very good agreement as far as the forecast track, and the HWRF and GFDL are almost right on top of each other. There is excellent consensus with the ATCF model suite.

So, for tonight, I will take the NHC forecast track.

As far as strength, this will depend on how much Cuba distrupts the circulation. Given this unknown variable, it will be kind of tough to pinpoint an exact strength. Once back over water though, NHC may have the right idea as to the pace of strengthening. Based on the curent wind shear forecast, I will have an upper level anti-cyclone with him, whihc currently displays some forecast wind shear...however, this feature is forecast to expand and cover most of the GOMEX near the end of the 5 day forecast track. Wish I could be more definitive, but I do not want to commit to track and strength, until we see how good he holds together. As far as track, I prefer to wait to update that until I see how the ridge over the western GOMEX and BOC situtates itself. This is a rather large feature, and again, is further south than shown by the steering models...so it is unknown at this particular moment what effect this may have in the short term.

I'll be on in the a.m. for a full synopsis.

"Storm"