WPBHurricane05

Watching The Caribbean
Posted by: WPBHurricane05, 00:29 GMT le 27 mai 2009 +0
Would keep an eye on the Caribbean Sea during the second week of June. GFS long range shows favorable conditions for a tropical storm to spin up. Yes its 2 weeks from now, but this area is a hot spot for June storms.


Figure 1. Low wind shear over most of the Caribbean.


Figure 2. Lots of moisture where the low shear is.

If development does occur, it's not necessarily a harbinger of an active season. We saw a June storm in this area during both the 2005 hurricane season , and the 2006 hurricane season.


Figure 3. Tropical Storm Arlene 2005 track.


Figure 4. Tropical Storm Alberto 2006 track.

Palm Springs Rainbow (WPBHurricane05)
1 of 3 rainbows in Palm Springs, Florida. Camera pointed toward the east.
Palm Springs Rainbow
Palm Springs Rainbow 2 (WPBHurricane05)
Two more rainbows in Palm Springs, Florida. This time the camera is facing the south.
Palm Springs Rainbow 2
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1. WPBHurricane05 21:12 GMT le 27 mai 2009    
Update as of the 5/27 12Z runs

GFS is still forecasting lower wind shear over the Caribbean.

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QuickPost

Moisture expected to be around the area during the period of low shear, but no surface low was forecast during this run.

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QuickPost

(Click for larger images)
Member Since: 31 juillet 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 7929
2. WPBHurricane05 00:00 GMT le 29 mai 2009    
5/28 Update.

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GFS continues to show lower shear over most of the Caribbean.

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Doesn't show a real organized system, and I doubt it will this far out.
Member Since: 31 juillet 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 7929
3. WPBHurricane05 11:28 GMT le 01 juin 2009    
Now I got agreement from the GFS, CMC, and the ECMWF.
Member Since: 31 juillet 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 7929
4. WPBHurricane05 11:31 GMT le 01 juin 2009    
Anyone up for rain and Tropical Storm Ana?

Member Since: 31 juillet 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 7929
5. WPBHurricane05 22:51 GMT le 03 juin 2009    
bump
Member Since: 31 juillet 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 7929
6. WPBHurricane05 00:27 GMT le 07 juin 2009    
Added a picture of a rainbow.

Nother one comin soon.
Member Since: 31 juillet 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 7929
7. LakeWorthFinn 04:53 GMT le 07 juin 2009    
Hello neighbor!
Nah, not up for Ana or any other named storms, we're getting enough rain without them. Good to see Lake Okeechobee and Lake Osborne being filled.
Member Since: 6 octobre 2005 Posts: 66 Comments: 6963
8. WunderAlertBot (Admin) 11:28 GMT le 21 mai 2013    
WPBHurricane05 has created a new entry.

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