canesrule1's Blog
Danny weakening might become a TD later today; 94L could be a TD soon.
Posted by: canesrule1, 15:07 GMT le 18 mai 2009 +0
-Tropical Storm Danny-

-OVERVIEW-

Tropical Storm Danny as of 8 PM EST had maximum sustained winds of around 50 miles per hour and was moving towards the north. Danny could possibly weaken further more to d tropical depression later tonight due to the strong shear. Chances of this becoming a Hurricane are very slim, and might not survive for more than 48 hours.

-TRACK-

Danny is weakening and seems to be drifting westward even though the National Hurricane center stated at 8 PM it was moving northward. If the Danny doesn't gain strength which seems unlikely, it won't be deep enough to feel the effects of the trough in the upper levels of the atmosphere, and that means it will continue westward and possibly affect the United States.

-PRESENTATION

Danny looks poor on satellite imagery and Dvorak numbers have been lowered to tropical depression status. If Danny continues to encounter the shear it is currently dealing with, we might possibly have a tropical depression tomorrow.


Image above is the latest satellite image of Danny showing very poor structure and spotty showers and thunderstorms.

-Invest 94L-

-OVERVIEW-

The National Hurricane Center
has been monitoring a vigorous tropical wave that emerged of the coast of Africa several days ago, and strengthening is possible. The National Hurricane Center is giving it a 30-50 percent chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. I think we might have tropical storm Erika by the weeks end.

-TRACK-

94L is still too far to know for sure where it is going but reliable 00z models have shifted southward possibly putting the northern Antilles and virgin islands in danger in the long run.

-PRESENTATION-

On satellite 94L looks very good, in my opinion even better than Danny. 94L is a large wave just like Bill and will have to be watched in the long-run.


94L has a large blob of convection indicative of a strengthening system.


Good Evening!


I'll try to have an update within 5 days.

Remember "It's all about THE U"

-CanesRule1.
 
 
Updated: 00:43 GMT le 28 août 2009   Permalink | A A A
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