charlottefl's WunderBlog

Posted by: charlottefl, 14:35 GMT le 04 août 2012

The 2012 hurricane season is in full swing now, with 2 tropical storms in the Atlantic: Ernesto, and Florence, and 91L off the east coast of Florida. We are rapidly heading towards the Sept 10th peak of hurricane season, and the Atlantic has sprung to life once again, right on cue.

Summary

Ernesto developed near the Windward islands and has since been moving West at a fairly rapid pace ~18mph. Although it has had a nice presentation on satellite, showing a developing tropical storm, recently dry air has begun to invade the outer portion of the storm. This dry air will likely continue to inhibit significant intensification, and may even act to weaken Ernesto until the storm can moisten the area around it and mix out the dry air from it's circulation.

(Dry air as evidenced by the large area of orange to the West of Ernesto)

Track and Intensity

The longer term fate of Ernesto is more uncertain. I think it is very likely that as with many storms in this area of the Caribbean, Ernesto will continue to struggle to organize until it reaches the Western Caribbean. Once the storm pulls away from the continental land mass of South America, mixes out the dry air interfering with development, and gets into the Western Caribbean it should find itself in a more favorable environment to strengthen. If the storm can gain enough latitude (we'll get to that in a minute) to get into the NW Caribbean TCHP is extremely high,and the risk of RI greatly increases.

There are two scenarios playing out as far as model guidance is concerned. One camp brings Ernesto the the WNW across the Yucatan peninsula into the Bay of Campeche, keeping the current steering setup, and the other takes Ernesto on a more poleward track though the warm waters of the NW Caribbean into the Central Gulf of Mexico, possibly as the result of a weakness in the ridge created by 91L. Which camp is right?? Too soon to tell at this point. However as long as this split exists, if I lived along the Gulf Coast from Northern Mexico/S. TX to the Western part of the Florida panhandle I would closely monitor the progress of Ernesto. The models should been in better agreement in a day or two once 91L crosses FL, and it is seen what if any impact the system has on the steering flow.

As far as the rest of the tropics are concerned 91L will be mostly a rain threat until it clears the FL peninsula, and tropical storm Florence is far away from any potential impact to anyone. If things change I'll try and bring a more detailed update on these systems.

WEATHER STATION INITIATIVE:

I'd like to encourage you if you've been thinking about buying one to look into it a little more. There are some decent stations at a reasonable price, and you can help expand the weather network here.

Updated: 14:50 GMT le 04 août 2012

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Lions, Tigers, and Hail, OH MY!

Posted by: charlottefl, 05:27 GMT le 19 mai 2011

So I recently had one of the more intense weather moments of my life. Thursday, May 12th I was driving home from work, and it was pouring down rain. Now at the time I didn't think anything of it. I mean it rains a lot in FL right? Wrong! At the time there was no wind or lightning, just heavy rain. Then it began. It started hailing. At first it was small, maybe not even pea sized. Then it began to increase it size and frequency. Within about 30 seconds the hail had g...

Updated: 05:21 GMT le 21 avril 2012

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SWFL Wunder Blog

Posted by: charlottefl, 10:19 GMT le 23 juin 2010

Well, 93L has me a little confused this morning. It split in 2 overnight. There are now 2 pieces of energy left from 93L, although according to surface maps the low is centered just to the south of Jamaica this morning. There is also another wave trailing closely behind 93L. So the question remains, what happens with 93L? At this point conditions are near perfect for storm development, but I think if we're gonna see it develop it has to gain some latitude. CURRENT ...

Updated: 10:27 GMT le 23 juin 2010

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SWFL Wunder Blog

Posted by: charlottefl, 09:48 GMT le 23 juin 2010

Well, we are officially into the start of the 2010 hurricane season. It looks like all of the factors are lining up to produce a very active hurricane season. Now is the time to prepare. Take some time before the season gets active, and go over your plans. Make sure you have some type of plan in place. In the event you are impacted by a storm, it will make life a lot easier in the aftermath.The NHC has designated invest 93L in the Caribbean. It looks like this has a...

Updated: 09:54 GMT le 23 juin 2010

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SWFL WUnder Blog

Posted by: charlottefl, 12:34 GMT le 13 Mars 2009

Now is the time to start making preparations. Begin thinking about what supplies you may need in the event of a storm. Also start planning out your evacuation routes, places to stay, far enough in advance, that you have time to make modifications later if necessary. In the event a storm does strike your area, you'll be ahead of the population in general on preparations. And take some time this season to talk with family, friends, and neighbors about the weathe...

Updated: 09:47 GMT le 23 juin 2010

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