Crowe's Weather or Not

Winter 2010-11
Posted by: crowe1, 20:01 GMT le 21 décembre 2010 +1
Well, winter officially began today with an extremely rare total lunar eclipse on a winter solstice full moon. Perhaps this portends plentiful powder?











With the official start to winter I thought I'd bring back the snow-counting from Lakeshadow on Sully's blog back in the "old days." As I recall, this is an old Iroquois (Onondaga?) method. The following is from LakeShadow's blog:

Snow Counting Rules:

How many snows will you get this year?

The calculation for snow-counting is as follows:

F + N = S ( F= First Snow Date of Month; N= Number of Days Since Previous New Moon; S= Snows For Winter)

Add the date of the month which you receive your first qualifying snow (see "What counts as a snow", below) to the number of days since the last new moon.

For example: Its forecast to snow on Oct 28th here in the Buffalo region. The last new moon was September 29th. It will be 30 days ago that there was a new moon from Oct 28th. add 30 (days since new moon) to 28(day of month) and you get 58. That is the number of snows that will be expected if the predicted snowfall happens.


What counts as a snow?
A snow is counted when there is enough of it to track an animal and it doesn't melt until the next sunrise or sunset. For example, if it starts to snow over night, it must cover and stick to the ground (grassy surface...not pavement) the next morning without melting for it to count. If it starts snowing during the daytime, it must still remain on the ground through sunset. This is easy to determine by watching for animal tracks or by putting a footprint in the snow once it stops snowing.

A new snow is counted when
a.) snow has melted between snows (after it has remained long enough to count in the first place) and surfaces are recovered to fit the snowfall criteria.

b.) Snow from the previous snowfall remains for the required time to be counted, new snow covers the footprints tracks left by animals and tracks stay covered through the following sunrise/sunset.

Many snows are too light to track an animal or melt away too quickly to be counted. So remember to take note...can you track an animal in the grass and has it stayed through the following sunrise/sunset.

If a snow is continuous through a few days without letting up through the following sunrise/sunset, it is only considered one snow. in other words, sometimes it snows for a few days and still counts as only one snow. On rarer occasions, two snows can be counted in one day. For example.. It may snow over night and stop before the sun rises, yet the snow remains on the ground past sunrise. Then the snow starts again in the afternoon while it is light and lets up before nightfall, covering all morning tracks and remaining on the ground through the following night. This counts as 2 snows for one day.

Thanks for visiting and participating!!! Keep us all posted on how you do with your corner of the world!!!

I thought this was fun so I'm doing it again. My first snow was Dec. 14, last new moon was 9 days before, so 14+9=23. I hope we come close:). As of 12/21/10 I'm at 2 snows.
3.) 12/23/10: .25"
4.) 12/26-27/10: C
5.) 1/4/11: .1"
6.) 1/7: c
7.) 1/7-1/8: 9.75"
8.) 1/12?: 5"
9.) 1/15: 5"
10.) 1/18: 5" (do I see a trend here?)
11.) 1/19: 2"
12.) 1/21: 4.2"
13.) 1/23: .3"
14.) 1/24-25: .5"
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51. listenerVT 01:30 GMT le 29 décembre 2010    
*** ♥ Ally Update! ♥ ***

Tuesday, December 28, 2010 5:13 PM, EST

Everything went well today. Ally even got to choose a gift from under the tree in the playroom.

Tomorrow her scans are scheduled to begin around 2:30. Please pray that Ally and I are both patient with the no eating thing all day. Also, we need lots and lots of prayers for clear scans. Hopefully we will know something tomorrow, but we don't always get results right away.

Also, thank you so much for praying for our friend. She delivered even sooner than expected. The baby is here. It is 4.4 pounds, but the text said: "Tiny...but healthy". Please keep them in mind as tiny babies need even more care.

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52. Inyo 05:56 GMT le 29 décembre 2010    
little kids in the snow are so cute :)
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53. lazzyhazy1 17:12 GMT le 29 décembre 2010    
Hi I keep getting light ice it makes it a pain in the but for kepping the car windshiedls clear, but does not seam to bother the roads. today thay called it freezing rain sometimes it is like a fog Lazzy
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54. listenerVT 18:17 GMT le 29 décembre 2010    
32 degrees here. It has been spitting fine snow all day. Nothing to speak of as regards accumulation, but it's made me wait a bit to drive into town. Oddly the radar purports to be clear. Heh.
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55. Snowmog 19:51 GMT le 29 décembre 2010    
Loved the new photos of Ally :0) especially the xmas one, she looks so grown up with the longer hair! :0) Fingers crossed on the scans.

I got around a foot of snow in the boxing day storm (Tiverton RI). We left our folks house early to make sure to miss getting stuck on the road in it. They got more than us in the end, in Wellesley MA.
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56. Inyo 21:14 GMT le 29 décembre 2010    
Yeah, the radar is pretty bad at picking up most snow.

Not looking forward to this gross thaw and rain during the time I was going to be able to get outside. I hope that forecast is a bust, but I doubt it will be.
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57. originalLT 01:38 GMT le 30 décembre 2010    
Waiting and praying for good scan results.
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58. listenerVT 02:54 GMT le 30 décembre 2010    
Hi Folks,

Thanks for waiting with me.
No word yet from Ally's Mommy,
which I assume means they haven't heard anything yet either.

=Sigh=

I'll post as soon as I know something. ♥
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59. listenerVT 04:10 GMT le 30 décembre 2010    
Hey...

Looks like no news tonight.

Stay tuned. And say a prayer/send vibes for Ally's parents. Her Mommy wrote:

"The anticipation stinks, but the waiting is worse...."

Thanks for waiting with us! XOXOXXX
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60. listenerVT 16:32 GMT le 30 décembre 2010    
*** ♥ ALLY UPDATE! ♥ ***

Thursday, December 30, 2010 8:41 AM, EST

CLEAR SCANS!!!!!!

The MIBG and CT showed no tumor. We should hear about the bone marrow next week.

A couple of things to note: one of Ally's kidneys has always been larger than the other, and it seems to be doing more and more of the work, while the little one is doing less and less. Also, a vein in her abdomen seems to be enlarged. They are confident it does not indicate cancer, however they are looking into it, but did not seem that concerned.

HAPPY NEW YEAR!!!!!

(Ally gets another HAMA draw on Thursday, January 6.)


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61. originalLT 18:31 GMT le 30 décembre 2010    
Thank God the scans are clear, now for a good HAMA draw!!
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62. Inyo 18:38 GMT le 30 décembre 2010    
yay for tumor-free scans! :)

It's beautiful out and just above freezing . I think I'll go for a walk by the lake.
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63. Snowmog 19:26 GMT le 30 décembre 2010    
Yay! so glad the scans are clear :0)
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64. listenerVT 01:20 GMT le 31 décembre 2010    
♥ You guys totally rock! ♥

Thanks for being such a great cheering squad for Miss Allyson Mae!

She will turn 4 years old at the end of January.
Awesome.

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65. lazzyhazy1 16:56 GMT le 31 décembre 2010    
Hi everone happy New Year at 11:30 am 51 outside too warme to do winter things and too mutch snow to do spring things but a day like today is great for the bees it lets them tak a cleansing flight. "like walking the dog" and thay get to move in the hive to get to more honey. Lazzy
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66. originalLT 21:33 GMT le 31 décembre 2010    
Hi, and Happy New Year, Lazzy, do you mean the bees actually go outside the hive and fly around? or they move about inside the hives?
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67. crowe1 00:12 GMT le 01 janvier 2011    
Yeah Ally!!!! May every year get better!!!


Happy New Year!!!!!

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68. listenerVT 05:47 GMT le 01 janvier 2011    
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69. listenerVT 05:49 GMT le 01 janvier 2011    
*CLINK!*
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70. listenerVT 05:54 GMT le 01 janvier 2011    
*** ♥ ALLY Update! ♥ ***

Friday, December 31, 2010 5:21 PM, EST

Today we celebrated CLEAR SCANS!!! by going sledding this afternoon.  Here is a brief history of our past winters:

2007: Ally was a newborn, we stayed inside

2008: Ally was just diagnosed, we stayed in the
hospital

2009: There was one major snow before her surgery in NYC, we took her to the park and she HATED it!  She refused to ride in the sled (even on flat ground) and did not really care for the snow.  Then, for the rest of the winter she was recovering from her surgery.

2010: (Today): We found a gentle slope and expected Ally to need to ride with one of us.  The first ride she went down with Mommy.  Then, she wanted to go by herself, and she wanted us to push her to go faster and faster!  She even crashed once, and face planted in the snow.  When Daddy caught up to her she was laughing hysterically. 

She had so much fun, and is looking forward to sledding again....we are headed to Uncle Larry's house tomorrow, and he has a pretty good hill!

It is so wonderful to see Ally taking risks (she even talked to my friends this morning, something she normally won't do). 
2011 is going to be a great year for Ally!!!


(P.S.: Uncle Larry is my brother-in-law, who begins his first round of chemo on Monday, for pancreatic cancer. It’s Awesome that Ally is going to visit him on New Year's Day!) ~ listenerVT
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71. listenerVT 07:15 GMT le 01 janvier 2011    
42 degrees at 2:00am in NW Vermont on January 1st!

AWESOME!
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72. crowe1 15:09 GMT le 01 janvier 2011    
Great news about Ally!
Nice fireworks pic Listener. Some ice fishermen were setting them off on the Lake last night, my daughter and I watched a from my bedroom window.
40.5 with high clouds here. Expecting a bit of rain later on. It doesn't look too good for snow lovers around here, only a few light flake now and then. The next possibility for widespread snow looks to be around the 1/8-9 time frame.
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73. listenerVT 21:53 GMT le 01 janvier 2011    
We came close to 50 today. Foggy in the woods...
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74. listenerVT 21:54 GMT le 01 janvier 2011    
I found lots of storm damage in the woods from the December 1st windstorm that took down the White Pine in our yard.
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75. listenerVT 21:55 GMT le 01 janvier 2011    
The storm back in July uprooted trees.
The December 1st storm broke off the trunks!
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76. listenerVT 21:57 GMT le 01 janvier 2011    
The stream is well fed from the big meltoff these last two days.
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77. lazzyhazy1 20:26 GMT le 02 janvier 2011    
yes the bees will go outside and that is a good thing lazzy
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78. listenerVT 23:12 GMT le 02 janvier 2011    
Today began with more fog, which surprised me because it was warmer than predicted. We got into the 40's again here.

So, what's the scoop on the snow predicted for later this week? Our forecast says snow is likely Friday into Saturday. Any thoughts on how much?

We're also getting some on Tuesday, it seems, though that's Light Snow and probably not a big deal.

Currently, we still have our driveway back, the brick walkway is clear and (as of today) dry (!), and the garage got cleaned out yesterday. So now my Mini Cooper fits inside again! Hurrah!

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79. LettyS 17:49 GMT le 03 janvier 2011    
Happy New Year to everyone! Sorry haven't stopped by sooner. Nice to come and read such good news about Ally! As usualy, gorgeous pics, Listener. I am also in mortal envy of your Mini. ;-)
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80. Snowmog 20:15 GMT le 03 janvier 2011    
Quoting listenerVT:
♥ You guys totally rock! ♥

Thanks for being such a great cheering squad for Miss Allyson Mae!

She will turn 4 years old at the end of January.
Awesome.



She is just two weeks younger than my little girl Tabitha :0) Happy New Year!
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81. listenerVT 05:28 GMT le 04 janvier 2011    
Quoting Snowmog:


She is just two weeks younger than my little girl Tabitha :0) Happy New Year!


Tabitha has a birthday coming right up then!
How sweet! Do you have something nice planned?
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82. listenerVT 05:29 GMT le 04 janvier 2011    
Thanks, Letty!

If you're ever in NW VT give a holler and I'll take you for a spin. :-)
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83. Snowmog 15:36 GMT le 04 janvier 2011    
Quoting listenerVT:


Tabitha has a birthday coming right up then!
How sweet! Do you have something nice planned?


We are going to have a party for her at home and invite a bunch of kids. It is going to be kind of a "build a bear" party. A special lady will come over and she helps the kids stuff a special soft toy of their choice, with stuffing and wishes. They are called "wishkers" apparently :0)
Will Ally have a party or special trip for her b-day?
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84. LettyS 17:17 GMT le 04 janvier 2011    
Quoting listenerVT:
Thanks, Letty!

If you're ever in NW VT give a holler and I'll take you for a spin. :-)


Ooh - I will! :-D
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85. listenerVT 02:27 GMT le 05 janvier 2011    
Quoting Snowmog:


We are going to have a party for her at home and invite a bunch of kids. It is going to be kind of a "build a bear" party. A special lady will come over and she helps the kids stuff a special soft toy of their choice, with stuffing and wishes. They are called "wishkers" apparently :0)
Will Ally have a party or special trip for her b-day?


Ally has a "build a bear" PIG!! LOL!

I don't know what her parents have planned this year. It surely depends on what her health situation is at the time. But I think it is possible that Ally might have her first birthday party with children present, this year, since she goes to pre-school now.
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86. Inyo 06:28 GMT le 05 janvier 2011    
The GFS is all over the place. Earlier we had several big storms, now not much, but cold. There is a beautiful inch or so of snow in Burlington that fell today, we had a fun explore in it tonight. I hope we get a couple more inches this week but who knows. This Sunday I drive to Pittsburgh for a week! Looks like the roads should be pretty clear. I'm taking the southern route as to avoid the lake effect snow.
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87. crowe1 12:15 GMT le 05 janvier 2011    
Listener, that sure would be a great gift, to have a "kid party"! I like her choice of a pig instead of bear. Watch out here comes Spider Pig!

Inyo, seems like watching the (weather) models is like watching the wheels on a slot machine, come on snowflakes!!!
We got about .1" yesterday, that make .2" on the ground (in drifts), oh well, it gets me to 5 snows. Just 4-5" would be o.k. at this point, I wanna snowkite.
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88. listenerVT 01:19 GMT le 06 janvier 2011    
Wow...as if in response to you Snowmog and crowe...

***♥ Ally Update ♥ ***


Wednesday, January 5, 2011 5:21 PM, EST

We got a call from NYC today.  Turns out...Ally is HAMA negative!  Wow...and her blood draw is tomorrow...they can now see into the future!  (Actually, when we were up at DHMC last week for scans they drew a HAMA and sent it off....but never told us.)

Anyway, Daddy and Ally will be traveling to NYC on Ally's birthday and she will get her fourth round of 3f8.  Happy Birthday to Ally.  Kind of a stinky present, as it is a very painful week for Ally, but she should be recovered from her dental surgery by then, and moving forward with treatment is the best thing.

So, our upcoming dates:
January 21: Dental Surgery
January 29: Mommy, Daddy and Ally have birthday cake
January 30: Ally's Birthday/Travel to NYC day
January 31-February 4: 3f8
Sometime in February: Ally's Birthday Party

Ally is a little upset about having to go to NYC, and very upset that it messes up her birthday party/cake.  We thought it best to wait until we get back to do her party, as it would be mean to give her a party and then make her keep all her gifts at home and travel to NYC the day after.  We compromised and said we could have cake before we left and a party when we get back.
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89. listenerVT 02:20 GMT le 06 janvier 2011    
Quoting Inyo:
The GFS is all over the place. Earlier we had several big storms, now not much, but cold. There is a beautiful inch or so of snow in Burlington that fell today, we had a fun explore in it tonight. I hope we get a couple more inches this week but who knows. This Sunday I drive to Pittsburgh for a week! Looks like the roads should be pretty clear. I'm taking the southern route as to avoid the lake effect snow.


Wise choice of route, Inyo. You already think like a northerner! :-)

I'm thinking we *will* get a few more inches of snow, very slowly this week. Enjoy!
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90. listenerVT 02:24 GMT le 06 janvier 2011    
So, I never told you all about yesterday.

I was working at the Library and it was almost time for my coworker to leave (and another to arrive), when we got word that a propane truck had slid down a hill nearby and overturned, closing the road. [Driver not hurt.] Mind you, the accident occurred at 4:40pm. Therefore, all residents heading home from work into the town of Underhill could not get home unless they drove well north into another town (Cambridge) and back down...which would add at least 40 minutes to their drive, on icy roadways.

So a number of them stopped at the Library instead, and hung out until the road could be reopened. We called the Fire Department to inquire on their behalf and they promised to phone the Library as soon as the road opened.

We looked up news about the accident and the weather conditions, printed them out, and posted them at the desk where people check out books. Many hadn't heard of the issue and were just there to pick up books enroute home. So we got to break the bad news to some.

True to her word, three hours later, when the phone rang and I picked it up, it was Kitty Clark at the Fire Station saying the road would be open in 5 to 10 minutes, so to feel free to have folks put on their coats and head out, and by the time they'd get there they could get through. I made the announcement and people started all talking at once, standing around in little groups. The Library took on a kind of festive air!

Then one patron who'd left came back and said the road wasn't open yet after all. So I called Kitty back and she said that wasn't true as she herself had issued the all clear. (And she is the fire chief's wife, after all.) She said she bet the guy guarding the road hadn't heard yet. LOL! Small town. So I sent folks off saying that if anyone tells them the road isn't yet open to tell them Kitty Clark said it is! Ha! No one returned after that. :-)

My coworker, who was supposed to leave at 5pm, instead went out for a bite and came back, then stayed until closing at 8:00pm. Just because.

I just wish I'd thought to make a pot of coffee for our stranded patrons, as we sometimes do for evening programs.
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91. lazzyhazy1 09:27 GMT le 06 janvier 2011    
Hi any input on a storme for friday the national weather is saying I will get something but thay are not talking amounts yet and thay are saying it may be a two day event Lazzy
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92. Snowmog 15:58 GMT le 06 janvier 2011    
Hooray! that is great news on Ally's HAMA results!! I am sad for her to have the NYC trip interfere with her b-day plans (totally necessary though I know,of course), hopefully she is consoled by having the party when she gets back, it will give her something to look forward to while she is in NYC! :0)

I liked your library story too! I always felt like the library is kind of the center of a community :0)Sounds like it was a break from the norm, which is kinda fun I think.
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93. Inyo 17:34 GMT le 06 janvier 2011    
Quoting listenerVT:


Wise choice of route, Inyo. You already think like a northerner! :-)

I'm thinking we *will* get a few more inches of snow, very slowly this week. Enjoy!


Yeah, after totally 'nerfing' the storm the models are bringing it back to some extent. It seems like a good setup for me - my planned route mostly clear on sunday, but a couple of inches of snow in Pittsburgh. I'm going to be working on my project there which hopefully will include some photos of a park in snow. Snow is not guaranteed in Pittsburgh in the winter, but it looks like I'll get some.

Looking at the really long range models, which are usually wrong, it does look like the chance of a few big snowstorms about when I drive back. Well... if it's a southern storm I can always take the northern route :)

It was a beautiful morning. I was driving from Middlebury to Burlington around 8 and the mountains on both sides were visible and beautiful. The light snow shower in Burlington was coming out of a very dark and low looking cloud - would look like a convective summer thundershower except for the snow on the ground. If I get a chance I'll upload photos later.

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94. Inyo 17:35 GMT le 06 janvier 2011    
And yeah, even though that snow on tuesday was light, the roads were NASTY. Maybe the thaw and light rain washed away the salt, because the roads and sidewalks were icy.
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95. listenerVT 06:17 GMT le 07 janvier 2011    
Inyo...that's a really good point about the rain washing away the salt.

I smiled when I read how if there's a southern storm you'd take the northern route. :-D

You have more horse sense for northern weather than many who've always lived here.

I think we're going to have to consider you a local now.
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96. listenerVT 06:19 GMT le 07 janvier 2011    
Snowmog...
It means a lot coming from you, having a little one the same age as Ally. I agree...her parents have made decisions based on what is best for Ally, even when that's really hard to do. It's great to see them getting some very good news. Such as...(hang onto your hats!) ~


*** ♥ ALLY UPDATE! ♥ ***

Thursday, January 6, 2011 9:20 PM, EST

We just got a call from the NH medical center.

Ally's Bone Marrows are clean!!!

We are having a great few weeks here!
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97. lazzyhazy1 07:01 GMT le 07 janvier 2011    
wenter weather for me tonight till saterday am up to 10 " Lazzy
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98. listenerVT 07:05 GMT le 07 janvier 2011    
Quoting Snowmog:
I liked your library story too! I always felt like the library is kind of the center of a community :0)Sounds like it was a break from the norm, which is kinda fun I think.


It was! :-)

Tonight was also a departure from the norm, but in a rather different way. My coworker had an allergic reaction to something she ate! It worked out, but she was very uncomfortable for awhile.
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99. listenerVT 07:14 GMT le 07 janvier 2011    
Hi crowe1 ~

When you have a minute, can you make the "current watches, warnings and advisories" map clickable again? Thanks!

Meanwhile, here's the link to it, folks:


http://www.erh.noaa.gov/
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100. crowe1 11:38 GMT le 07 janvier 2011    
Yeah sorry, just noticed that. I'll fix it shortly. In the mean time, It looks like I actually got about 2" out there, it's snowing lightly now, and this from Albany:

Statement as of 3:30 AM EST on January 07, 2011

... Winter Storm Warning in effect until 6 PM EST Saturday...

The National Weather Service in Albany has issued a Winter Storm
Warning for heavy snow... which is in effect until 6 PM EST
Saturday. The Winter Storm Watch is no longer in effect.

* Locations: southern Adirondacks... southern Fulton
County... southeast Warren County and northern Saratoga County.

* Hazards: moderate to heavy snowfall.

* Accumulations: 6 to 16 inches with the highest accumulations
across the higher terrain of the southern Adirondacks.

* Timing: snow will be heavy at times today and tonight and
gradually decrease in intensity on Saturday.


WOOOOOHOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!
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101. originalLT 12:40 GMT le 07 janvier 2011    
Morning all, first, GREAT news about Ally, looks like all our prayers are being answered! In Stamford Ct, it is snowing now, a steady light snow, all roads are covered, we are expecting 4-7" by late tonite. Temp. is 28F. The barometer is quite low already, at 29.49 and falling. Calm winds. Some more light snow predicted for Saturday, and maybe a larger storm for next Tues./Wed.
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