Central MD Weather Conditions

remnant Isaac & Maryland
Posted by: cws6196, 01:47 GMT le 01 septembre 2012 +0
It looks like the remnants of Issac may impact us Sun into Mon. I will have a better sense of this later Saturday, but it appears we could see a couple inches of rain, heavy at times and scattered thunderstorms.

More details Saturday after I see the latest
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Isaac & Maryland update
Posted by: cws6196, 15:24 GMT le 25 août 2012 +0
I just wanted to give you a quick update on Isaac. Based on the latest (11:00am) guidance, Isaac will be effecting FL and later AL. This is not a threat for us in MD. After Isaac makes landfall many of the models have him heading north and northwest up the country. Some models have him moving to the northeast and into MD. If that happens (I'm not yet convinced) we would experience heavy rainfall from the west starting near the end of next week into the holiday weekend. But, I do see Isaac moving more north than toward us.

I will keep you posted. Follow me on Twitter for weather updates and Isaac info (www.twitter.com/wxmanmd).
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TS Isaac & Maryland
Posted by: cws6196, 03:05 GMT le 22 août 2012 +0
The last couple days I have been watching two systems in the tropics. Well, one of those systems is now called tropical storm Isaac. Isaac is too far out for any certainty, but some of the models have him impacting the mid-Atlantic mid next week. More than likely he will impact FL, possibly as a hurricane, by the end of this weekend. My best estimation is that we will be spared Isaac, but it is worth watching. The other area of interest is still out in the Atlantic, but I am less concerned about it.

I will keep you posted here and follow me on Twitter even if you don't have a twitter account: www.twitter.com/wxmanmd I post daily weather updates and weather tidbits, including more frequent updates on Isaac.
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again Friday storms possible
Posted by: cws6196, 15:18 GMT le 17 août 2012 +0
Another Friday arrives and another chance for storms comes with it. The storms should not be widespread nor damaging, but storms are always worth watching and taking serious. A cold front is arriving later this evening, sparking the storms ahead of the front. The issue though is that the front is now moving slower and may stall out sooner than expected. If that happens, the rain and storms will be delayed with longer periods of precip. Not bad as we need the rain.

TIMING: Central MD could start to see rain late in the afternoon into the evening while Southern MD should not see any precip until after 8:00pm at the earliest. All dependent on the speed of the cold front.

THREATS: Gusty wind and lightning.

TROPICS: Nothing at all to report which would effect MD.

Follow me daily on Twitter (www.twitter.com/wxmanmd) for weather updates and tidbits.
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more storms to come
Posted by: cws6196, 13:48 GMT le 15 août 2012 +0
What a night! There are many reports of hail and power outages, but no confirmed tornadoes. I saw video of a possible funnel in Owings Mills, but that's it. But it was close. Just so you know, the tornado warnings issued last night were based on the radar readings indicating tight rotation in the clouds. Warnings are issued either due to the radar showing rotation (may or may not be a tornado), or because someone actually sees a tornado. Last night was the former. But I was out in the light show watching the clouds.

Today we have another chance at severe weather later in the afternoon, but more so for those along and east of I-95. But keep an eye on the sky where ever you are this afternoon. Our next chance for storms is Friday afternoon as another cold front approaches. More details on that later.

Follow me daily on Twitter (www.twitter.com/wxmanmd) for weather updates and weather tidbits.
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UPDATE Tues storms & winter
Posted by: cws6196, 13:24 GMT le 14 août 2012 +0
Update Tues afternoon
The storms are still on track and beginning to form to the west. The eastern shore still has a large storm system effecting them. I do wonder if that ongoing system will take any energy away from our area. If so, it could mean less storms for central MD. But we shall see. Definitely keep an eye on the sky as conditions can change rapidly. Thus far there are no watches or warnings for central or southern MD.

original post Tues morning
It still looks good for storms later this afternoon. The morning rain in central MD was nice to hear, and needed for the ground, but could have dampened some of the storms later today. Last Friday was a similar set up wherein the morning rains took away instability needed for afternoon storms. As this may be the case today, there are some differences from last Friday, and so I still see a chance for storms. As I mentioned in yesterday's post, the amount of cloud cover will be a determining factor. Too much clouds and we will see rain and not storms. Breaks in the clouds will allow for the heating of the atmosphere and add to the instability. I do believe there will be breaks in the clouds and so see a chance for storms

TIMING: Off and on rain is possible all day, although heaviest rains and storm possibilities will be after 2:00pm lingering into the evening hours.

THREATS: Wind and tornadoes are the main threat. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed us in a 5% risk for tornadoes.

TROPICS: Nothing to affect Maryland

WINTER: Just a quick note here as discussion has already appeared in local print and media. Those who follow me know I am not a fan of long-range forecasting nor is climatology my forte (snow and storms are), but, it does appear that we are entering an el Nino pattern which typically means snow and cold for this region. Last year's non-winter was due to a strong la Nina. There is also a study out there mentioning that the loss of arctic ice could effect atmospheric dimensions whereby lowering the nao (briefly, an indicator used to forecast potential for storms coming up the coast. A low nao allows storms to ride the coast, bringing us large amounts of snow). So, from my perspective, I see us having a normal winter, which includes snow and cold with the chance for a couple good storms. But we shall see.....

Follow me daily on Twitter (www.twitter.com/wxmanmd) for weather updates and weather tidbits. I will post another update as warranted.
Updated: 18:24 GMT le 14 août 2012   Permalink | A A A
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Tues storms in Maryland
Posted by: cws6196, 16:08 GMT le 13 août 2012 +0
Here we go again. Looks like storms are likely tomorrow (Tuesday). High pressure is leaving us today and a low pressure system is moving in. Low pressure, due to its rising air, helps to create an environment for storms. Add to that some atmospheric disturbances and an approaching cold front, and we now have a recipe for storms But, and here is the big but, only if the cloud cover can erode during the day. If Tuesday remains cloudy the chances for storms greatly diminishes. We could still see rain, but not severe weather. Locations where the clouds do break there is a great potential for strong storms, even tornadoes.

TIMING: Tuesday early afternoon into the evening.

THREATS: Gusty winds, hail and possibility of tornadoes.

TROPICS: Nothing to report that would effect MD.

I will have another update either later tonight or Tuesday morning. Follow me daily on Twitter (@wxmanmd) for weather updates and weather tidbits.
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rationale
Posted by: cws6196, 14:07 GMT le 11 août 2012 +0
I so hate when a forecast, mine or others, goes bust. But, alas, it does happen. Just once again proves who is and who is not in control. Obviously our climate is bigger than ourselves and more complicated than we all yet understand. Everyone I know forecasted strong storms for yesterday including the Storm Prediction Center in OK. To be honest, I am more upset not that I was wrong, but because we need the rain. Some people's livelihood depends on the the rain falling. But, on a lighter side, I am reminded of a line from that wonderful song "I'm a Weatherman" which goes (to a rap beat) "I'm wrong half the time and still have a job!" (I have the song if you want me to send it to you).

WHAT HAPPENED: From what I can gather, three main things went wrong: 1. The cold front moved much slower and so did not enter the humid airmass in time to produce rain/storms; 2. The cloud cover had a greater impact than we figured on keeping the airmass stable; 3. Our new word, "subsistence". The morning rain took away the energy and instability needed for storms. Therefore, with the rain taking away the energy, and the clouds not allowing the sun to create more instability, coupled with the delay in the arrival of the cold front, you end up with what we had. For most of us that was nothing.

TODAY: The cold front is now in western MD moving east. As it moves it "could" still produce scattered rain and light thunderstorms through this afternoon. Any rain or storms will be localized and scattered. Nothing severe.

The rest of the weekend looks to be nice and a bit cooler. Follow me daily on Twitter (@wxmanmd) for updates and weather tidbits.
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Storms?
Posted by: cws6196, 23:31 GMT le 10 août 2012 +0
So ...... Hmmmm.......  Anyone see some storms which are missing?  I seem to have misplaced them.  Where could they be?

Seriously though, weather doesnt always cooperate.  The models are showing the storms and the major weather outlets are still forecasting them.  Without in depth analysis I am not too sure what has happened.

But, dont count this out just yet as the cold front is still not on us.  Most likely what will happen is the front will trigger rain given the moisture in the air.  So we could have a rain event tonight rather than storms.   Most of you will be fine with that I'm sure.  It'll have to do for me.  This delay in the precip "could" mean prolonged period of rain on Saturday, but we shall see.
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Friday storms Maryland
Posted by: cws6196, 14:34 GMT le 10 août 2012 +0
Wasn't it nice to wake to rain? We still need many inches of rain make up for the drought conditions especially in Southern MD. Thus far my forecast is on track with the rains this morning followed by a period of clearing. The issue is how much clearing. If the cloud levels stay thick the atmosphere, although already unstable, wont destabilize as needed for severe weather. If the sun is out for a good period of time, storm potential increases. But, whether or not the storms are severe, we will still see rain, heavy at times, later today.

TIMING: I see another round of scattered showers/storms after 1:00pm followed by another period of clearing. Then, around 6:00pm or later another round of storms/rain in central MD with the rain reaching southern MD a bit later. Rain could last through Saturday morning.

THREATS: Gusty wind, hail and rain are the biggest threats.

TROPICS: There is a new area of interest I will be watching, but thus far nothing is out there which could effect MD.

I expect localized watches/warnings to be issued later today. Follow me on Twitter (@wxmanmd) for updates throughout the day.
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UPDATE on Fri storms
Posted by: cws6196, 21:23 GMT le 09 août 2012 +0
Storms are forming to the west and a few stray cells near Baltimore. More of this activity will continue as the evening progresses. Everyone has the potential for one of these storms. Keep an eye on the sky.

As I mentioned in my previous post, Friday will be the active day. Timing of the storms appears to be early on Friday, possibly around noon. Tonight's activity will mix in with Friday's so it will be hard to differentiate when tonight's storms end and tomorrow's begin. I don't have much more to say, or anything different to state, from my previous post. I will have a another update Friday morning.

On another note, my latest blog entry talks abit about how I got interested in weather. Check it out: www.lifesjourneyblog.com

Follow me daily on Twitter (@wxmanmd) for weather updates and weather tidbits.
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storms in Maryland end of the week
Posted by: cws6196, 04:34 GMT le 08 août 2012 +0
This is a "spoiler alert" regarding potential strong storms the end of the week. Looking at the long range data, models and dynamics, Thursday afternoon we will have a good chance for storms primarily in W MD and north of Baltimore (not exclusively), and on Friday more widespread and severe storms in the afternoon effecting all of MD. A high pressure system is sitting off the coast spinning clockwise bringing in southern warm moist air. On top of that air will be upper level disturbances on Thursday allowing for storm formation, and on Friday a cold front will be moving into the area from the west with storms firing just ahead of the front.

These storms, especially on Friday, could be severe. I will have a more detailed update as the week progresses, but wanted to let you know what is potentially coming our way.

Follow me daily on Twitter (@wxmanmd), or, if you don't have a twitter account, go to www.twitter.com/wxmanmd for updated weather information and weather tidbits.
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Sunday storms & Florence
Posted by: cws6196, 15:00 GMT le 05 août 2012 +0
As I previously mentioned, today is the best chance for storms. A cold front from our west is moving east, coupled with the humidity today and a low level jet stream pushing just to our north later in the day, gives us the dynamics necessary for strong storms later today. The rest of the week should be a bit cooler and less humid, but still hot.

TIMING: Most should see rain starting after 1:00pm with the stronger storms late afternoon. The bulk of the strong storms should be in western MD and north of Baltimore, although southern MD is also at risk for storms.

THREATS: Wind damage, lightning and flash flooding.

TROPICS: Although the tropics are getting active, thus far nothing of concern for MD. Although, I am watching TS Florence given some of the model data, but it also appears she will start to fizzle near the end of the week. If Florence maintains strength (unsure right now), then she is worth watching. I will keep an eye on this, but nothing to be worried about.

Thus far there are no watches/warnings issued. Follow me daily on Twitter (@wxmanmd) for weather updates and tidbits. My Weather Phone will be updated as needed (443-470-9804).
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Maryland summer pattern this weekend
Posted by: cws6196, 14:34 GMT le 03 août 2012 +0
Today and this weekend will be a typical summer weather pattern for us. The high pressure just to our north moves off the coast today, and as it spins clockwise will bring in southerly hot air mixed with moisture from the ocean. The combination of moisture and hot air leads to instability in the atmosphere, therefore a chance for storms. This pattern, starting today, stays with us through Sunday. Later in the day Sunday a cold front moves just to our north, giving a chance for strong storms.

TIMING: Storms are possible each afternoon, mainly scattered pop up type storms. Keep an eye on the sky.

THREATS: Lightning, wind and small hail are the main threats.

SUNDAY: More details forthcoming, but the storms Sunday could be strong, mainly effecting western MD and Baltimore north toward PA. Southern MD could see some storms, but the bulk of the action should stay closer to the cold front which will be located just to the north of MD.

TROPICS: TS Ernesto is out there as well as another area of interest. Ernesto is not an issue for us and I will monitor the other area of interest to see what it may do. For now, no threats from the tropics in MD.

Follow me daily on Twitter (@wxmanmd or www.twitter.com/wxmanmd) for weather updates and weather-related tidbits of information.
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Wed storms & tropics
Posted by: cws6196, 13:38 GMT le 01 août 2012 +0
As I posted the other day, storms are possible later today as a cold front moves into the area. This front is weak, and given the lower temps due to the cloud cover, storms should not be severe. But, cloud cover and temps aside, there is enough moisture in the air for storms to form.

TIMING: after 3:00pm, dying off as the sun sets

TYPE: Scattered storms which will pop up from the west. Keep an eye on the sky.

THREATS: Heavy rain and cloud-to-ground lightning.

TROPICS: Still watching a couple areas of interest, but right now none is a threat to MD. As we move into August and September, the tropics should get a bit more active, although overall I do not see a very active season. Keep in mind that the season lasts until the end of November. As a reminder, I typically do not post here about the tropics (I will tweet about it) unless there is a threat to Maryland. Otherwise, for general interest on the activity of the tropics, follow my Twitter.

As always, keep an eye on the sky, and if you can hear the thunder, you can be hit by the lightning. Follow me daily on Twitter (@wxmanmd) for weather updates and weather tidbits.
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About cws6196
I host a Weather Phone: 443-470-9804 & email list for people in MD. Follow me on Twitter: @wxmanMD. I am also a Skywarn spotter & CoCoRaHS observer.

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