Latest satellite and surface observations indicate that TD#16 has developed in the NW Caribbean Sea from an area of disturbed weather. Current shear values over the storm are around 20kt (23 mph). The surface circulation is still very broad and the majority of the thunderstorm activity is displaced to the SE at this time. TD# 16 will have only a short time to strengthen to develop further into TS Nicole, before it interacts with a stationary cold front currently over northern parts of east-central Florida. Due to steering flow out of the S/SW, I do expect this system to continue NNE across Cuba, the Florida Straits and southeastern Florida Peninsula, before exiting somewhere near West Palm Beach, FL. This motion would carry the system offshore the Central Florida coastline, passing roughly 30 miles east of Fort Pierce, 70 miles east of Cape Canaveral, and 100 miles east of Daytona Beach. Heavy rain will develop over Central Florida beginning this afternoon, with totals ranging from less than an inch over Lake County, to possibly over 6" across the coast south of Cape Canaveral. Winds will not be an issue, other than to kick up the surf along the beaches. Expecting winds generally 15-25 mph, with some isolated gusts to Tropical Storm force along the coast south of Cape Canaveral. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued along the East-Central Florida coast from Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Jupiter Inlet south to the Florida Keys and then northward along the Gulf Coast to East Cape Sable. Hurricane Hunters are enroute to TD# 16 right now to assess the storm, and will provide more details of the strength of the cyclone.
Of additional note, the above mentioned front over central Florida will help to cause the transition to extratropical somewhere over the SW Atlantic Ocean, east of Jacksonville. However, I do expect the transition to begin as it is approaching South Florida.
Elsewhere, thunderstorms are beginning to fire along the coast of Brevard County with the aid of several factors... the above mentioned cold front... a sea breeze boundary... and increased moisture from TD# 16 streaming NNE. Thunderstorm activity is moving to the N/NE around 10-15 mph. Other showers are developing over south Central Florida and will impact Brevard county over the next couple of hours.