As Tropical Storm Ernesto moves inland over Mainland Mexico with winds at around 60 MPH and flooding rainfall, more action seems to be in store for the Atlantic. Right now, I'll keep you updated with who gets who and what tropical systems are next.
TD-7
Tropical Depression Seven has formed as of 5 PM and is moving quickly westward with winds of around 35 MPH. Slow strengthening is forecast and this could probably become a tropical storm tonight or tomorrow morning. No significant additional strengthening is expected over the next couple of days as it battles the same unfavorable conditions that helped slow down Ernesto's intensification in its early stages. By the weekend, this will probably make impact in the Northern Lesser Antilles and beyond that time frame, a more steady rate is expected. All that could be is said that the same areas that first got the impacts of TS Ernesto should keep an eye on this system. The threat to the Lower 48 is highly unclear at this time...if any.
African AOI
A tropical wave on the fringes of emerging off of Africa is looking decent and has a chance of steady development once it emerges into the open waters near Cape Verde tonight. Where it goes and how strong it gets is unclear as it's still over land and not an Invest quite yet. But by Friday afternoon, it has a 20% chance of TC formation according to the NHC.
I'll update tomorrow afternoon.
