Tropics

Posted by: hurrtracker1994, 21:31 GMT le 13 août 2012

Good Afternoon Everyone!

Acronym Key:
SAL: Saharan Air Layer
LLC: Low Level Circulation
EPAC: Eastern Pacific Ocean
EATL: Eastern Atlantic Ocean
MCP: Minimum Central Pressure
CDO: Central Dense Overcast
GOM: Gulf of Mexico
NHC: National Hurricane Center
UKMET: United Kingdom Met Office Model
NOGAPS: Navy Operational Global Prediction System
CMC: Environment Canada Global Environmental Multiscale Model
ECMWF: The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast’s Global Model
GFS: Global Forecasting System
ITCZ: Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone
COC: Center of Circulation
AOI: Area of Interest

The tropics are currently rather quiet for this time of year, and I don’t expect any major activity for about 3-4 days. The remnants of TD07 continue to struggle through the Central Caribbean. A combination of dry air, wind shear, and trade winds continue to eat away at whatever convection tries to develop. Some computer models try bring TD07 back to life and some don’t. I am going to hedge my bets on TD07 not reforming. There are just too many obstacles in the way for the wave including land, and more dry air out in front of the system. I would probably be at 10% chance of redeveloping, which is a little bit lower then the NHC’s 20% chance. As for 93L, I do not see this system developing and would also put it at a 10% chance for redevelopment. According to model guidance, 93L will merge with a trough of low pressure as it starts to make its way out to sea. Convection has also been nonexistent throughout its lifecycle due to a large amount of dry air entangled within the storm.

Remnants of TD07 struggle to survive.

93L will not escape the dry air for some time.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic there is a tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa that currently has a little bit of spin to it. If the wave can fire off more convection and vorticity values come up, an invest of the area could be required.

850 mb shows an elongated spin coming off of Africa.

Hector remains a highly sheared tropical cyclone with most of the convection off to the west of the LLC. The current CI Dvorak values tag this system as a weak tropical storm. The forecast for Hector is to continue on a westward track for a day or two and then start to move northwestward where it will encounter cooler SST’s. At this point it will degenerate into a remnant low. Also in the EPAC we have invest 95E. This area of concern is not forecasted to develop in the next 48 hours, but the area will still have to be monitored.

Hector trying to fire off convection in the EPAC.

Thanks everyone for reading!
Also, these forecasts do not reflect the OFFICIAL forecasts from the NHC; please consult the NHC for official public forecast on all active Tropical Cyclones.
~Matt~

Categories:Hurricane

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Tropical Outlook: TD8-E

Posted by: hurrtracker1994, 20:36 GMT le 11 août 2012

Acronym Key: SAL: Saharan Air LayerLLC: Low Level CirculationEPAC: Eastern Pacific OceanEATL: Eastern Atlantic OceanMCP: Minimum Central PressureCDO: Central Dense OvercastGOM: Gulf of MexicoNHC: National Hurricane CenterUKMET: United Kingdom Met Office ModelNOGAPS: Navy Operational Global Prediction System CMC: Environment Canada Global Environmental Multiscale Model ECMWF: The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast’s Global ModelGFS: Global Forecastin...

Categories:Hurricane

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Tropical Outlook: TD07/93L

Posted by: hurrtracker1994, 21:33 GMT le 10 août 2012

Categories:Hurricane

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Atlantic Tropical Outlook: TD07

Posted by: hurrtracker1994, 20:56 GMT le 09 août 2012

Good afternoon everyone! Ernesto: Ernesto tracked along the coast of Mexico and is now headed inland. Some models including CMC and the GFS show the remnants of Ernesto developing once again in the EPAC (Eastern Pacific Ocean). If this idea comes to fruition, “Ernesto” would not be a threat to land for the time being and would most likely go out to sea. 850 mb vorticity showing a well defined LLC over TD07. Wind shear is currently forecasted to be light to moder...

Updated: 21:02 GMT le 09 août 2012

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Ernesto/92L/Tropical Outlook

Posted by: hurrtracker1994, 21:55 GMT le 08 août 2012

Good evening everyone! Ernesto: Hurricane Ernesto made landfall last night just north of Chetumal. A storm chaser in that area recorded a minimal central pressure of 975mb and there was a possibility that the storm was slightly stronger than the advisories put out by the NHC. Nevertheless, the storm is now emerging into the BOC, but due to a shift southward it will only be over water for a short period of time; not allowing for much strengthening. Because of this th...

Updated: 22:00 GMT le 08 août 2012

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