Juslivn |
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| Posted by: juslivn, 02:17 GMT le 07 Mars 2012 | +3 |
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Page: 1 | 2 | 3 — Blog Index
As readers may or may not know, we drove from Chicago to Norman Oklahoma for the 3 day National Severe Weather Workshop.
After the conference, we did stop in Joplin, MO and drove the path of May 22, 2011 EF-5 Tornado. I did not take a lot of photos, simply out of respect.
As for Joplin and what we learned: The tremendous width of the path, and the length of destruction through this city, seeing it firsthand less than a year later BLEW MY MIND.
The videos and even all I know about tornadoes wasn't even close to seeing it. To see the path--BLEW MY MIND.
I will never, never, never forget that. Nor will I disrespect ANY tornado warning...
In part, this trip was for my husband's job.
But, this also was something we wanted to do. (Plus, we visited our daughter in Oklahoma City).
So, I have to start this new blog somewhere, so I start with the photo of the new hospital going up in Joplin.
Tim and I were privileged to attend a presentation by the Emergency Manager for Jasper County at the NSWW (workshop).
What I learned, and I learned sooo much:
It takes everyone, everyone, working together to heal and recover.
God Bless the Emergency Managers, Faith Based Organizations, NPO's, Red Cross, FEMA, State Officials etc...for throwing ALL their disaster expertise and knowledge into immediate action for the people and citizen victims of Joplin.
I cannot say enough about how all their hard work and knowledge in the face of mega tragedy in Joplin came together.
Everyone in the entire Country is benefiting from last year's experience's of these emergency managers/directors/responders and volunteers. Tuscaloosa, North Carolina, Minnesota, Indiana, Kentucky, Tennessee, Mass, VA, and ON AND ON...each incident is building the book of response and unfortunately making true HEROES. It IS just a fact: Our Weather continues to be violent, just violent!!! If it slows down--GOOD...but we need to be prepared as individuals and to listen to these stories and experiences as hard as they may be to listen to.
We can all learn from these Emergency Managers on a smaller scale. PERSONALLY, WE NEED TO HAVE A PLAN, AND LISTEN TO THE WARNINGS AND BE BE WEATHER READY in our homes, workplaces, schools, and houses of worship or wherever we gather.
Putting a disaster plan into action is a horrible and sad thing. The Joplin Emergency Manager gave a speech which I will never, never forget my entire life.
These folks are heroes. True heroes.
The one's behind the scenes who are 'ready'. Let's honor them in other areas of the Country now.
Especially we can honor them all (and those who have died) by not second guessing warnings or outlooks posted days in advance. Stay informed and have a plan.
Support your LOCAL NWS peeps who say stay home-- cancel events where huge numbers of people may be killed...Support the SPC and listen. Be ready.
I have no words, even though I try. But you know I mix up my words a lot.
This blog will also be a travel-log of parts of our BEAUTIFUL COUNTRY!!! which we traveled to learn about. Unforgettable beauty we saw on our long road trip (including some parts of Rt. 66 ;)
Ok...ramble on!!! Let the slide shows and Public Service Announcements commence! ha ha...
Jus, you put a lot of emotion into your writing here and I feel it, at least in part. I know there is not substitution for actually seeing what you've seen, but you've done a good job of conveying it.
I'm looking forward to seeing the beauty you'll be sharing next.
We had a blast! Absolutely wonderful! Smart, funny, quick...reflective, eager to learn (sounds like a report card, lol! a pleasure to have in class!)
Add: BC ;) thank you more to come, yes.
Looking forward to the pics and reports!
I suppose I could go on about the destruction that I saw here after the ice storm of 1998, but it wouldn't compare. You have left me without words except for my first sentence...
Ylee, What goes on in Norman, stays in Norman!!! LOL
Oh My Gawd...could you make us more worried about you when I'm on vacation!!!? Don't ever pull that crud again with all those things headed straight at cha and your family!!! We were petrified for you all! But, then we were watching super human radar and saw it missed you by a hair! Whew!
I don't think there could possibly be anything like sitting in a room with a bunch of SPC people during a PDS. Plus, in the audience a bunch of storm chasers, spotters, weather enthusiasts, media people, and Emergency Management officials --people watching-- Talk about DON'T FLINCH! It was like being in severe weather jail because we were trying to be good and listen to the speaker, but we wanted to bolt and see if everyone was ok from that huge outbreak on Friday. I think I'm scarred, lol. Just let me talk. lol.
Shore, glad you were tuned in to the live twitter feed. Very cool. TX storm chasers were there. But that's all that I know of. Didn't really know of anyone else.
I will get into some of the controversial topics covered (which you may have received tweets about)...Tornado Emergency Classifications, etc... but tonight I'm just winding down. It is going to take me a looong time to put the photos into some semblance of order. Bear with me please. Or tweet me for the code of the raw unedited which are actually up online.
I think BF may do a blog on the speaker from Bastrop EMS who was amazing!!! OMG THAT segment of the conference was also another one I will never forget as long as I live! Those people in TX...the entire town are heroes! They did everything they were supposed to do. Everything! It saved lives!
BC - you have a lot going on, but thank you so much for being 'first'. Good luck this next few weeks and I will be thinking of you ;) You are probably waiting for me to pick the photos? There are hundreds, not even counting today. Some-- I already know are my favorites.
Like this one!!! More tomorrow and in different blogs as this month goes on ;) I will try to calm my mind and put things in order of appearance, lol! It's all a blur at the moment!
Gotta love the dude on the cell phone!
Oklahoma City, walking toward the Bricktown. Cool place.
This has to be one of my favorite all-time smile pictures ever! Mime in OKC...and Muse ;)
Lovely pics - will be back later to read:)
Little lunchtime soup and blog. Going to start with some of the photos of Joplin and from the Conference and touch on what I learned or found interesting.
The timing of the Joplin tornado was a saving grace. It happened on a Sunday evening. Had it been a work-day, there would have been many, many more people in Joplin that horrific day, and it would have been rush hour.
I learned that people who heard the warnings needed to VERIFY IN THEIR MINDS whether they should act on the warning or not.
They had to check with TV, or Facebook, or call a friend, to basically VERIFY that there was a real tornado before some of them took action on the warning.
There are studies being done on this 'validation process' and how humans react so that warnings can get through the brain properly.
The Weather Services are really trying to work on effective communications.
Personally, I think their 'Weather Ready Nation' campaign is very good.
But, its effectiveness is also enhanced because of all the storms lately, I think.
This post will be for the touring slide shows. I'll be adding to it, instead of new posts so they are all in one post, so please check back.
Please, play the music while you look at the slides. It makes the tour just soooo much more amazing, then loop it again through all the slide shows, trust me :) luv, jus
a href="" target="_blank">Link
Missouri Photo Slideshow. We did not tour St. Louis, I'm sorry. We had to move on. But we did stop in St. Charles, then up to wine country by Augusta, and then the Ozark area by Osage Beach. On the way back we ate in St. Louis at Favazza's in 'The Hill' neighborhood, famous for fooooood.
Gasping for air.
Alright all you people who follow me. Usually I put a slide show together with the music. But the problem this time is I took too many slides! However, I seem to have put it to the music if you 'roll it' a couple of times, lol. Sorry.
Wind warning should have gone a little bit longer here...uhm jus saying NWS Romeoville eh hemmmm. It got freakin bad here and I actually went to the basement for a while today(shhhh I'm a scardy cat in these trees which were just howling!!! Howling!)
I can't hear the trains, but suppose I should call it a day...Roll me Away! Wa hooooo!
Been real windy here also and lots of moisture streaming from the SE. Saw a few storms kicking up your way a while ago, and they seem to be stronger now. A few kicking up here, too. Worst expected in central OK is some hail early tomorrow. Maybe some scattered severe.
So much I could say about the workshop, and then maybe the best would be to say very little. More my nature to make a short story long. lol
Last eve I saw your pic (edit: of the new hospital going up) and your comment about Joplin and I wanted to cry. Then I saw the report card and I LMBO all the way through doing the dishes.
Far as Joplin, was good to hear that in Joplin FEMA responded quickly and appropriately. As did so many relief organizations, faith-based and otherwise. And how 'bout Home Depot passing out free chain saws and then setting up a tent store? One good outcome, maybe, was the interviews with survivors. Right after the workshop, I found the NWS Central Region Service Assessment for the May 22, 2011 Joplin tornado. (pdf) Some may find good reading there, not only for the chronology of events, but especially for insight into how and why people do not heed warnings right away.
After reading some of the recommendations in this assessment, and hearing about the Weather Ready Nation initiative the Federal government brought forth due to last year's severe season... well, heck. I think too much onus is being placed on the NWS and not enough on business, education and government leaders, not to mention churches and large venue event producers and the media... and, most of all, on "We the People."
Some good insight into human nature came out of last year's severe - not just Joplin but from all the main events. The public feels over-warned. People feel invulnerable, over-confident. They think, "I better go look at the sky and see for myself" or "Maybe I'll call great aunt Gladys and see if she thinks the air feels like there's a storm coming." That's just human nature. What's the first thing I'd do in a tornado warning? Go out and look at the sky. Well, chances are good I'd have been looking at the sky regularly for a while before the warning - radar and real sky. But I'm weird that way.
I can't tell you how many times I've run to the store at the last hour or two before storms started popping and said to someone, "We're under a tornado watch. Stay safe today," and got a blank-faced "We are?" in return. AND some of these were PDS watches. I also have a bad habit of asking store clerks if there's a weather radio on in the store. :) I get maybe a 25% positive return on that question, and when they say, "No," I suggest it might be a good idea to get one.
Couldn't agree with you more about... PERSONALLY, WE NEED TO HAVE A PLAN, AND LISTEN TO THE WARNINGS AND BE BE WEATHER READY in our homes, workplaces, schools, and houses of worship or wherever we gather.
Follow the weather. Know what the potential is days in advance. Know when the watch goes up. Pay attention.
Will false alarm rates for tor warnings improve? I don't know. In a way, I hope not - More chances of going unwarned that way. With better technology, maybe NWS can narrow the warning polygons. You mentioned the "Tornado Emergency" lingo NWS sometimes uses. That is a whole 'nother can of worms. Maybe I'll say more when you get to the subject.
Just some quick words on the St. Louis EF4 last April. The NWS forecaster from St. Louis who spoke at the workshop gave five reasons why there were no fatalities in this tornado. She listed them as
5. Luck
4. No mobile homes were hit
3. Most homes have basements
(mentioned "Luck" again related to reasons 3. and 4.)
2. Much less EF4 level damage compared to other tornadoes in 2011
1. Most people took shelter. Why? TV. And she noted the St. Louis forecast office had given the media frequent updates and has good relationships with broadcasters.
I know you are a believer in the power of internet social media. I see the beauty of Twitter in communicating events, more during and after than pre. You converted me to seeing how word can spread after the couple discussions we had about facebook. Hope we see these used more and more in the future. Also, I want my weather radio robot to talk to me on my cell phone. Till then, I'll keep the wx radio in the car if I'm out and about.
:)
I really doubt we'll see any more than lip service from Weather Ready Nation. Even though phased array low range radar would help alleviate over-warning, the price tag is too high. Maybe WRN will get people talking to each other at the leadership level. I did not hear one speaker mention outreach to or inclusion of the grass roots.
No matter what we do as individuals or as a nation, the reality is... severe weather/tornadoes will continue to cause death and destruction. We still gotta do our best to try and stay safe and hope the "Luck of the Draw" will be on our side, both in reduced number and severity of storms and in the probability of being in the wrong place at the right time.
Oh dear, what have you done?
Enjoying all the photos. MO wine country sure is pretty. Glad you have so many horse pics from OKlahoma. This is a very horsey place. You picked my two favorites downtown - Mime and driver on cell phone. Also loved the "skyscraper" visions and Toby Keith's, and I see them up now. Yay!
What a great trip all around. Thanks for sharing it with everyone at wu.
"Luck of the draw" made me think of Bonnie Raitt. Can't find that tune, so here's another that's maybe appropriate for a weather blog. Storm Warning
My windows are open. Hope to hear some thunder roll through near dawn.
Goodnight. Sleep well.
Thank you BF :) The title of the blog started off confusing. However, after being where we were, traveling our trip, we understand, there sometimes are no words...and then we find the words of others to help.
You? A fireball? Never would've guessed it, lol!
Hope you are having a good day!
Anyway,having a wild day here at work,so gotta run.
I will stop by later by you and say hi.
zoom zoom
MOOZ MOOZ
or as they say up north ZOOM ZOOM
Hi all. We had so much to do after returning home from the trip, I didn't have a lot of time to post again after Weds and putting together the slide shows and some details about the seminar. It's all blur...
(but secretly, I will tell you that my husband has now finished almost all the modules on the meted.com website and he's completely hooked! LOL. He's got me beat by one spotter certificate now after making fun of me for a couple o years for being a weather geek :) But, that's not fair because he's a scientist engineer, and I'm a poet :) lol! sort of.
Changing the header to Windy stuff again. We will get winds again tomorrow and may also see 75 degrees on Wednesday!
Hmmmm makes me nervous and will watch for the SPC forecast. I have not had time to run the models, or actually even look at the discussion.
Hiya Ylee and NEw!!!! We are just fine. Just busy. I did stop and look at your cams to relax just a bit today :) And, looked at your very warm weather NEw (and Mass). See now, that fire out there of those four houses is what makes us nervous here with the fire warnings. If one is paying attention! HEY, PAY ATTENTION NORTHERN ILLINOIS!
Seems now we have to deal with fire weather. THIS IS NOT to be taken lightly. If you go to my photos or vids, you will see we are surrounded, surrounded by woods here and in Lake and McHenry County. There is a ton of underbrush. There are acres and acres of reeds and prairie grass, too.
Not to mention junk trees, dead limbs which fell during the storms. A combustable mess!
Going to try to re-visit the NSWW conference information and touch on a few more subjects after work tomorrow. Including the Bastrop, TX fire, which Todd Lindley, of NOAA/NWS, Lubbock, TX gave an excellent presentation about. (I have not found his 30 minute video he spoke of online yet. If anyone has the link, please hook me up, tyia)
Hope everyone is enjoying this amazing full moon! Haooooowwl!!!
P.S. We're getting a new PUPPYYYYYYY! Boomer!!! Molly's new little brother. An American Bulldog with breeding rights. (oh my!) Son and I will go down this path carefully, and with a lot of education for both of us. I will be training the new dog. The kids, Joe and Sam are trying to find a house of their own now that they have house-sitted for Grandpa and have been on their own a bit. I am looking for a rental for them. I will be training and probably dog sitting and coaching the new puppy. I'm gonna be a puppy Gamma again, lol!!!
Oh--P.S.S. We had our first bloom in the yard yesterday--crocus in Northern Illinois :)
img src="
And, can't help but say this about Harrisburg, IL: You are in my heart. We were on the road when your tragedy hit. Normally, I would have been here, probably posting those alerts, though at that time of the morning, no one would have seen (that's just normal for my site, lol) but YOU are in our thoughts and prayers. We have not forgotten you either, and have made our own contribution to your efforts ;) hang in there strong Illinois Peeps!!!
And Namaste.
So much I missed this week. I'd like to just comment on the gas prices. Go to he#$ Oil Companies and speculators. $4.00 a gallon!!!
OH, UHM just in time for Spring Break and family road trips??? Your timing is just amazing--cha ching. HELLOOOOOO!!! And we are told to think it is because of the rhetoric about Iran?
OH, Maybe there's a REPUBLICAN LIKE PRIMARY GOIN ON...OH DUH!!! And...And...HELLO maybe Summer Vacation time is just around the corner and they'll just HIKE IT UP EVEN FURTHER TO $5.00 PER GALLON because we have to drive around more w/kids and all?
(ok sorry, i'll take the all caps button off now. thanks for listenin. Well, just be safe all. We'll be broke, but dammit, be safe ;))
... Red flag warning in effect from 11 am CST /noon EST/ this
morning to 6 PM CST /7 PM EST/ this evening for low relative
humidity and strong winds for northern Illinois and Northwest
Indiana...
The Fire Weather Watch is no longer in effect.
* Affected area... all of north central and northeast Illinois
along with Northwest Indiana.
* Winds... southwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.
* Timing... late morning through late afternoon.
* Relative humidity... 20 to 25 percent.
* Impacts... conditions will be favorable for the rapid growth of
wild fires.
Precautionary/preparedness actions...
Good Morning (((Jus))) ~
Yes, it's your seemingly long-lost WU pal, Mass! Thanks for echoing my and many other people's sentiments concerning those seemingly illicit and greedy Wall Street speculators or hedge-funders, who are once again conning the US consumer based on excessive greed, fear mongering, and so-called skewed political perceptions rather than actual facts concerning our oil and gas supplies. Supposedly, the previous Congress voted in an over-sight committee to tamp down on such practices, but unfortunately it's been squelched by the present one. Go figure!
On a slightly lighter note, glad you had a chance to get out there and do some traveling with the hubby. Hope there were, at least, a few enjoyable moments along the way. Naturally, the recent tornadic disasters in the South and Mid-West can put a severe emotional crimp in any one's plans or spirits. Guess all one can do is take one day at a time, do what we can to help one another and make the most of each passing day.
Weather-wise, the past few days have been like a tale of two seasons around here with sunny, warm 70F degree temps on Thursday, but with gusty winds and a few fires along coastal Mass. that day, and then waking up to traces of snow, from an overnight snowfall, and 29F degrees this morning! No wonder people are catching nasty bugs or feeling a tad discombobulated. Nevertheless, tonight we spring forward an hour to daylight savings time and a relatively terrific Mass. weather forecast in the week ahead. Hubby and I are so looking forward to longer daylight hours, especially, when temps reach into the sixties! We feel it's only fitting considering our age. LOL! Nevertheless, hope you and your area don't run into any serious problems today with fires fueled by strong wind gusts!! Nasty scary business!
Thankfully, the very hectic past couple of months seem to be winding down to more reasonable levels, so I can attend to catching up with some of my close WU buddies! YEAH! It's been quite the unbelievable whirlwind and I'm looking forward to, hopefully, slowly winding down now that those increasingly longer warmer daylight hours have arrived!
As a gentle reminder, (LOL), don't forget to turn your clock ahead an hour before retiring tonight or at 2:00 am Sunday if you're a night owl.
Your gallon at $4 is still less than half of what we pay per gallon. We are paying 1.40 per litre - there are about 4 litres in a US gallon, (4.5 in an imperial gallon). So 4x1.40 = 5.60, converted to $ ...... and it is $8.70 !!!!
Now you see why I am planning to visit the Yorkshire Dales at the end of the month, and pick up a friend on the way back down.... killing two birds with one stone and not making two trips!
OH - phoof! Why does WU convert my Sterling sign to a ? when I modify the comment - it doesn't change the $ ..... that's not fair - it's "signist" !!!!!!!
How's the wind blowing today? Not much wind here in the Heart of Oklahoma, but it's been raining the past couple hours, that steady, PacNW kind of rain where you just want to stay in and read a book. 50 out. Damp, cool air.
Oh what fun. A new puppy. Boomer!
Is he related to Molly, like brother from a different litter or half-bro or cousin or... or..? I think you mentioned Molly's been broken and can't have babies. But Boomer can? I want a girl puppy. I want to name her Sooner.
:)
(but secretly, I will tell you that my husband has now finished almost all the modules on the meted.com website and he's completely hooked! LOL. He's got me beat by one spotter certificate now after making fun of me for a couple o years for being a weather geek :) But, that's not fair because he's a scientist engineer, and I'm a poet :) lol! sort of.
Got a big kick out of reading this. Oh dear, what hath thee created? Really, this is wunderful!
Sandi
that's not fair - it's "signist" !!!!!!!
And that is funny! LOL.
Don't know why it does that, but it converts my degree signs the same way if I modify.
Now, the home I was showing was newer construction, not many trees or cover, and in the middle of a prairie with a pond and wetlands to the North. In mp 'spotter' opinion, (lol!!!) they were at least 40 mph! At least. But then again, I did not have many objects to judge by :) But, I'll betcha there were stronger gusts in Chicagoland today. It was wicked.
Now, if HUBBY were there...he probably could have told ya ZACTLY what they were ;)
I made a video but it wasn't that cool.
There was a bad accident here in the neighborhood and I believe a motorcyclist died (I do not know who it was yet). Prayers up.
However, when I heard all the ambulances, firetrucks and police activity, thought it was fire--and that set me on edge w/the wind. But things have calmed a little bit now. I will have to watch the newspaper, so sad.
Mass, I was by you a few times today, but inbetween running and phone calls so didn't get to write (wumail though). You are the Queen!!! Queen of the funny Graphics. You never have to worry about me missing your posts, I see you over at NEws, and I pop in on you all the time (to everyone's site) when there is time :) Just sometimes I don't like to begin a post if I get interrupted. Hope you stay warm and enjoy the longer Spring evenings!
Sandi, lol BF said the same thing I was thinking earlier today. I thought your word 'signist' was hysterical, lololol! cracked up! We met someone from Greece who also told us not to complain because they have $9.00 Gasoline! Petro, liquid gold...aaack. Makes me reeeeaaalllly nervous. The people I was showing houses to today were saying they are looking because they HAVE to be closer to their work w/ the gas prices. Smart of them. SMH, really...way to just implode a recovery...nice. (ok I'll get off the soap box).
Hope you do get to travel and share all your photos with us though. Thank you for what you do!
Back to BF - Booooomer is a looooong story. Yuppers, jus like all my other looooooong stories, lol. But I will have him to train and gamma-dog-sit. He is actually my son's girlfriend's purchase. It's gonna get really interesting around here after they get done house-sitting for Grandpa :)
I absolutely LOVE the name Sooner!!!!
He comes with the name Boomer already. But I think the kids saw him at like a day old and named him. They know the breeder.
However, we are trying to come up with a kennel name including the kennel he came from. There are certain rules and protocol, and American Bulldog's are not AKC. They are UKC, and NKC and? Maybe one other. So, we have to research this.
And...oh yessss he is from the SAME parents as Molly, but another litter 2 years apart. So he is Molly's baby brother :)))
Ya'll are gonna get sick and tired of puppy pics though. Thank goodness I am only 40'something and holding and have noooo grandchildren yet! LOL.
Longggggg post sorry ;) Sheesh even I need a bubble bath after that one to relax, lol. Be back later. I'll see how that vid really came out and decide if it is 'post worthy'.
Gas is high in Europe because of taxes, so if Sandi(and a few tens of millions of fellow Brits would concur) voted in a bunch of fuel tax cutters to Parliment, gas there would go under at least $5 a gallon, anyway!
American Bulldog not AKC? With all the anklebiting rat breeds and the myriad obscure hunting/herding dogs from the far-flung four corners of the Earth, you'd think that a dog breed with American in the name would be in the American Kennel Club! I smell a conspiracy!
No, wait, that was just some pyro throwing a cardboard box in a holding furnace! Never mind...:)
Call me obtuse...oh yes, please, call me obtuse. I love it when you call me obtuse. LOLOLOL. (oh nvrmnd)
Hey that puppy is pretty darn cute eh?
Winds have died down now. It's not so scary anymore :)
Add: Wait, how many Brits are there?
213 PM CST
Other than showers/thunderstorm chances Sunday night into Monday the
primary forecast challenge revolves around temperatures and figuring out
just how unseasonably warm it will be the next 7+ days.
High pressure has moved east into the upper Ohio Valley this
afternoon with strong southwest winds and full sunshine resulting in
our first and what looks to be seemingly endless days of much above
average temperatures. Gradient will relax somewhat tonight...though
likely to maintain enough wind to prevent temperatures from completely
crashing despite the clear skies and dry air mass.
One of the more notable changes to the going forecast was to slow
the arrival of cloudiness and precipitation Sunday into Sunday night. Model
guidance is all generally in good agreement on taking the vigorous
upper low over New Mexico and lifting northeastward toward the
Midwest the next 24-48 hours. As it does so it should be gradually
deepening even further while acquiring an increasingly negative
tilt. Persistent and rather strong southerly flow in advance of the
system is prognosticated to advect deeper moisture northward into the County Warning Area
by Sunday night. The steeper middle-level lapse rates are prognosticated to
hang back west of our area closer to the track of the middle-level cold
pool...so instability looks to remain limited. However...given the
strong forcing associated with the upper low and 100-150m/12hr 500mb
height falls and total totals nearing 50 have opted to maintain a
mention of thunderstorms Sunday night.
Upper low looks to remain fairly progressive and should be lifting
out of the region by Monday morning. Certainly plausible that there
could be scattered showers and possibly isolated thunderstorms
around Monday morning...but suspect precipitation coverage will be on the
wane as forcing departs. Have opted to hang onto slight chances for
showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon due to the increasing
instability as steeper lapse rates advect east into the area in the
wake of the departing upper low...however with model not really
showing any obvious trigger or forcing mechanism and rising heights
would suspect that we should be dry Monday afternoon.
Weak cool front should then sweep across the area Monday night
bringing in an ever so slightly cooler but more noticeably drier
airmass with dewpoints going from middle 50s+ back down into the 40s and
eventually some 30s. Front likely to go through dry as it will be
weak/shallow and battling large scale subsidence as middle-upper level
heights rise with building upper ridge. Probably of greatest
significance is the weak surface high traversing the area allowing
for Strong Lake breeze to develop and surge inland Tuesday afternoon
with cooler and falling temperatures near the lake...but continued
unseasonable warmth away from the lake.
The entire medium range period should feature much above average to
possibly near record level temperatures. Wednesday looks to be one
of the warmest days with guidance suggesting enough of an offshore
flow to prevent any lake cooling bringing the near record warmth up
to the Lakefront. Some guidance suggests a weak cool front could
approach or possibly move through the region Wednesday night
bringing at least a chance of some showers and thunderstorms. With
upper ridge remaining anchored over the region and 500mb heights
holding at 2 to 3 Standard deviations above average...any front
that does pass will be weak and offer only slight cooling. Tough
to say at this distance...but there is some indication that
gradient could be weaker Thursday and possibly Friday allowing for
more prominent lake breezes to penetrate inland. Guidance does
suggest that large upper trough could begin to migrate far enough
east into the central Continental U.S. Toward next weekend to at least bring
US increased chances for showers/storms...but with guidance often
too quick in breaking down non-progressive patterns such as this
have lowered probability of precipitation from the allblend initialization.
Izzi
Please, share perspectives, stories, or just reflect and say a prayer.
This earth was surely moved. It moves me still to think how much it was moved.
The people...how much was suffered. Unheard of heroism and bravery. We stand with you: Namaste ;)
I knew that the 1st discussion paragraph in #34 was Izzi before I ever made it to the bottom! They're calling for warm temps here, too, but a lot of rain, also!(Like we need more!)
It will shape us, as we try to live on this earth together. We will have to acknowledge their pain. They will have to acknowledge their pain.
I honor those who dies tonight at a special moment of what I think was the moment 11:46 pm CST (here in Chicago).
Now, a Moment of peace and lifting it all up. The scars remain and I hope love will help with pain.
What we did not know oh my...a first news article...
Link
j/k but actually my tears are real and I seriously am so saddened, and was so saddened by the Japanese Earthquake, Tsunami, and Nuclear.
A moment of silence. There were soooo many children who died. So many people.
a href="" target="_blank">Link
Love, love love...love is all we need
goodnight, trains are going to bed...be safe all ships
-jus-
There have been some very nice tributes today and last night.
However, I'm going to have to change my header to the severe threat soon as I watch today shape up even more, even for areas of IL which were hard hit before. Just rain and thunder will be tough for them to handle.
Ylee: What was with the cardboard box into the furnace? lol. And, yup to knowing one sentence into the discussion...who it is ;) You take care there today, your threat isn't great, but it's not 0 either.
Of course I'll sign that and wonder if I can post it onto my Facebook page somehow because I know a lot of people would sign it.
Ty for bringing this here Shore. link again: Link
Worked today but that was better than yesterday. At least we didn't get blown away. Then took Mr. Meatloaf for a nice walk in the gorgeous weather.
Checking out tomorrow's SPC forecast. HMMMMM Will have to have my mobile with me. I think I'm going to do some of the units of the meted spotter training tonight, too. It will be good to do this and then watch a cell if one happens our way.
SPC AC 111723
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1223 PM CDT SUN MAR 11 2012
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NERN IL INTO MUCH OF LOWER
MI...
...SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT UPPER LOW WILL MOVE FROM IA/MN NEWD TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR BY
00Z WITH A 70 KT MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX AND SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT FALLS
SPREADING INTO LOWER MI. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM WRN WI INTO NRN IL BY AFTERNOON...PUSHING
INTO LOWER MI THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THIS TROUGH WILL SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT.
TO THE S...A TRAILING FRONT WILL STALL FROM ERN MO INTO AR AND NRN
TX. E OF THIS FRONT OVER THE WARM SECTOR...SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
HELP ...WITH BRINGING MID TO UPPER 50S F DEWPOINTS AS FAR N AS CHICAGO
LOWER 60S F INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY.
...NERN IL/SERN WI INTO LOWER MI...
WIDESPREAD MORNING RAIN WILL LIKELY EXIST FROM LOWER MI INTO
IND...OH...AND ERN KY/TN ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD LIFT RAPIDLY NEWD AS THE DRY SLOT SPREADS OVER
MUCH OF IL AND IND BY MIDDAY. WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND
DAYTIME HEATING...LAPSE RATE PROFILES WILL BE RELATIVELY STEEP...AND
LITTLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION SHOULD EXIST BY AFTERNOON.
THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES THAT LEND A DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY TO
THIS SEVERE SCENARIO. FOR EXAMPLE...THE GFS MODEL SUGGESTS MUCH LESS
INSTABILITY...AND FASTER VEERING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW...RESULTING
IN VERY LITTLE SEVERE THREAT OVER IL...AND PERHAPS ONLY ISOLATED
INTO LOWER MI. HOWEVER...THE NAM/NAMKF SOLUTIONS INDICATE A
SUBSTANTIAL THREAT OF SUPERCELLS...INCLUDING LARGE HAIL AND
TORNADOES.
GIVEN STRONG FORCING WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM...AT LEAST ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY...ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE
DEVELOPING SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT. TIMING OF SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BEGIN
NEAR 21Z SRN WI/NRN IL...AND WOULD CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 03Z INTO
LOWER MI.
...KY AND TN INTO NRN MS AND AL...
MORNING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING
EARLY MON ACROSS TN/MS/AL. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD NOT BE SEVERE. LATER
IN THE DAY...COVERAGE OF ANY NEW DEVELOPMENT IS UNCERTAIN AHEAD OF
THE STALLING FRONT. WHILE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE AND
HEATING WILL OCCUR...RATHER DRY MIDLEVEL AIR WILL EXIST...WITH SOME
CAP NEAR THE 700 MB LAYER...ALTHOUGH WEAK. THE VERY WEAK CONVERGENCE
COUPLED WITH DRY AIR ALOFT MAY HAMPER DEVELOPMENT...BUT AT LEAST A
FEW STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MAINTAIN THEMSELVES FOR A
WHILE DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. THERE WILL BE A HIGH
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY OF HAIL FROM WRN KY/TN INTO MS AND AL.
..JEWELL.. 03/11/2012
Hopefully this clears it up a little bit; my brain isn't working too well tonight, due to only getting two hours' sleep after working 15.
Tried to sleep this afternoon, but between the yewts(Why, of all times do you have to start laundry now, and the stupid in-laws(don't ask), sleep was fleeting, at best. Don't worry, I can get through work on minimal power. Lots of folks do this here everyday, lol!
Yewts were here and we planned for the new puppy and talked about them coming home from my Father's house sitting, etc...We looked up the dog's (and Molly's) pedigree (didn't get far because that stuff isn't really online too much) but I taught my son how to look for other research portals, etc...We found there is a 'Club' of American Bulldogs not very far from here. So, my son may get involved or visit events, etc...It was fun to talk about.
Anyhooooo , I got nothing else done after work (except laundry) and visiting.
Not sure, but I don't think there has been issued a new SPC forecast yet for us, since my earlier post of the Day 2 outlook? Curious to see if the GFS or the NAM wins this for us??? Hoping the GFS actually.
Ylee, I am soooo confused. I still don't understand what the heck are you talking about a burning box? I'm soooo confused! Let it goooooo let it gooooooo...(I'm going to be dreaming about this at about 4 am LOL. I just know it! Some burning box in a furnace :}
"...lack of surface
convergence...severe thunderstorm development is not anticipated
expected further south. Although...there is some uncertainty into
exactly what will unfold Monday afternoon as there is varying
solutions with model guidance...some of which are indicating less
moisture/instability. The likelihood for more organized
development has increased with latest model runs today...and
wanted to highlight this upward trend. If more organized
development/severe weather could come into fruition...hail and
damaging winds would be the likely threat with the potential for
more rotating updrafts a possibility...which would be tied more
closely to surface low where better helicity would reside."
Rodriguez
Ok So will be watching the morning update with a lot of interest! Good night all ships at sea! Or in Port...Be safe.
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT MON MAR 12 2012
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...
...SYNOPSIS...
AS A MID-LEVEL LOW INITIALLY FORECAST INVOF IA WEAKENS AS IT SHIFTS
NEWD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...MODERATE TO FAST BUT
RATHER LOW-AMPLITUDE FLOW WILL AFFECT MOST OF THE U.S. THIS PERIOD.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...WHILE ONLY A FAIRLY WEAK REFLECTION OF THE PASSING UPPER
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE EVIDENT IN THE SURFACE PATTERN ACROSS THE
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES. IN THE WEST...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO/ACROSS THE PAC NW...AS AN UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES.
...SOUTHERN UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...
DESPITE THE APPROACH OF A COMPACT UPPER SYSTEM...LITTLE SURFACE
REFLECTION OF THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED. THIS LACK OF A LOW-LEVEL
FOCUS RAISES QUESTIONS REGARDING CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION.
FURTHER...ONLY MODEST THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT /MIXED-LAYER CAPE
GENERALLY AOB 500 J/KG/ IS ANTICIPATED...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS TO REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
STILL...WITH VERY STRONG FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION...ANY
STORMS WHICH DO DEVELOP WILL BE AIDED BY SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR UPDRAFT
ORGANIZATION/ROTATION. THUS -- POTENTIAL FOR EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF
ISOLATED STRONGER CELLS AND/OR COMPLEX BOWING SEGMENTS SUPPORTS
CONTINUATION OF A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THIS AREA...WITH HAIL AND
LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE...AND POTENTIALLY A TORNADO ACROSS
SRN PORTIONS OF THE RISK AREA.
...MID SOUTH/CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...
DESPITE WEAK/UNFOCUSED ASCENT...DAYTIME HEATING OF A MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG
MIXED-LAYER CAPE...SUPPORTING SUBSEQUENT INITIATION OF SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF
CAPE AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR 30 TO 40 KT EXPECTED...A FEW
STRONGER/ORGANIZED STORMS COULD EVOLVE...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY
WINDS AND HAIL.
LACK OF A LOW-LEVEL FOCUS AND THUS THE EXPECTATION OF LIMITED STORM
COVERAGE PRECLUDES UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK ATTM. SHOULD POTENTIAL
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS BECOME EVIDENT...UPGRADE MAY BE NEEDED IN
SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS.
..GOSS.. 03/12/2012
Good night/morning.
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