mtyweatherfan90

HURRICANE DOLLY

Dolly's location

As of 2 PM CDT, was located at 26.4N 97.3W about 64 km north-northeast of Brownsville, Texas. The sustained maximum winds are of 150 km/hr and gusts up to 176 km/hr. With a overall movement to the WNW at a slow pace of 7 mph, its central pressure is about 967 mb or 28.56 inches of mercury. Her diameter extends more than 500 km.





Dolly's intensity and impact forecast

000
WTNT34 KNHC 231930
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DOLLY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13B...RETRANSMITTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
200 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2008

...DOLLY MADE LANDFALL IN SOUTH PADRE ISLAND...EXPECTED TO MOVE
FARTHER INLAND OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS LATER TODAY...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM
BROWNSVILLE TO CORPUS CHRISTI...AND FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF
MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER BETWEEN MEXICO
AND THE UNITED STATES. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF CORPUS
CHRISTI TO PORT O'CONNOR.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM LA
PESCA TO SOUTH OF RIO SAN FERNANDO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM CDT...1900Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE DOLLY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 26.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.3 WEST. THIS POSITION IS
OVER LAGUNA MADRE ABOUT 35 MILES...60 KM... NORTH-NORTHEAST OF
BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AND 30 MILES...51 KM...EAST SOUTHEAST OF
RAYMONDVILLE.

DOLLY IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE EYE OF HURRICANE DOLLY WILL BE MOVING
INLAND OVER FAR SOUTH TEXAS LATER TODAY. PERSONS ARE ADVISED NOT TO
VENTURE OUTDOORS DURING THE RELATIVE CALM OF THE EYE BECAUSE WINDS
WILL SOON INCREASE QUITE RAPIDLY.

BECAUSE A PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION OF DOLLY HAS BEEN INTERACTING
WITH LAND...THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 95
MPH... 150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DOLLY IS NOW A CATEGORY ONE
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY
IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY ON HIGH RISE BUILDINGS. A GRADUAL WEAKENING
SHOULD BEGIN SOON AS THE EYE MOVES FARTHER INLAND.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM. HARLINGEN TEXAS MEASURED 54 MPH...87 KM/HR SUSTAINED
WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 74 MPH...119 KM/HR.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE AT LANDFALL WAS 967 MB...28.56 INCHES.

DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
BROWNSVILLE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR HAS ESTIMATED UP
TO A FOOT OF RAIN SO FAR OVER PORTIONS OF COASTAL FAR SOUTH TEXAS.
THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEAST MEXICO.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

REPEATING THE 200 PM CDT POSITION...26.4 N...97.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...95
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
400 PM CDT.




Dolly's track forecast

The general motion of Dolly trends to move more to the WNW during the last images at a slow pace. A high building ridge over south central Texas will become strong and steer very slowly Dolly to the WNW, then to the W, possibly to the SW.




Monterrey

We're starting to feel the first squalls from Dolly, where a brief but strong rain falled with some winds. Though, the situation remains calm right now, the worst of the conditions here will be felt later todar, tonight and most of tomorrow. When the Dolly makes her transition, breaking bad into a tropical rainstorm by tomorrow when she crashes with the Sierra Madre range, creating extremely dangerous conditions on the city with heavy rainfall from 6 to 8 inches, with isolated spots with more than 15 inches near the mountains. Also, we can see flash floodings, gusty winds with TS force and some possible blackouts.

The following image shows rainfall accumulations for Thursday-Friday of up to almost 8 inches in parts of Northeastern Mexico and around to 6 to 8 inches in the city, with isolated accumulations up to 15 inches nearby the mountains.



This radar will witness during the next couple of days the arrival of Dolly. To the right you can see how the first bands to the exterior of Dolly start to appear on the radar as they come closer and closer.




All the precautions need to be taken right now in low areas and places were flash floodings are frequent. An advisory remains in Monterrey were flash flooding, involving cresting creeks and heavy rainfall, might occur tonight and tomorrow.

I'll keep you updated with the latest, next update tomorrow.