A vigorous mid/upper low has developed this afternoon from a tropical wave over Florida. High resolution water vapor and visible imagery show a nice spin that continues to tighten. Composite radar imagery shows strong to severe convection wrapping around a more focused, consolidated low.
Surface observations do indicate a surface circulation. However , pressures remain high, around 1015mb.
Our exclusive SIISE Estimate initialized well over Florida. I am in agreement with the estimate. (SEE BELOW).
As of 10:00am CT 12z 7/17 AOI Near West Florida Initial 26.73kts. Over land Forecast Intensity +12h 36.73kts. +24h 39.61kts. +36h 34.26kts. Over land +48h 35.97kts. Overland
There has been some debate whether or not the circulation will reemerge over the western Gulf or stay inland its entire life. The 12z NAM bring a surface circulation over the gulf for about 18-24 hours then takes the system inland along the Mississippi/ Alabama Coast. The 12z GFS keeps the system overland and only develops rain and storms in the same area. The 12z ECMWF close to the GFS and keeps development to a minimum.