The coastal region near the southern states stole the show today. High resolution visible imagery shows a large curved band of convection. It has been persistent since early this morning. Composite radar imagery shows a very weak circulation, 850-700mb.
Surface observations indicate some swirling of the wind field but no surface circulation. Surface pressures are still very high, around 1018mb.
Our Exclusive SIISE estimate initially show a very weak system, then try's to intensify it into a depression or even a storm by hour 48. (SEE BELOW).
As of 10:00am CT 12z 7/20 START AOI South of Alabama Initial 11.67kts. Forecast Intensity +12h 12.50kts. +24h 31.00kts. +36h 35.58kts. +48h 40.49kts.
The 12z NAM try's to develop the system slightly but has largely dropped it. The 12z GFS does develop the system. It also keeps it around for more than a week. Now that the GFS is onboard its seems more likely to develop. The 12z ECMWF is more along the lines of the NAM.