tstormtime's WunderBlog

Posted by: tstormtime, 20:56 GMT le 22 août 2012

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1800
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0348 PM CDT WED AUG 22 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN CO/WESTERN NEB/SOUTHERN SD/FAR NORTHWEST KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 222048Z - 222245Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED DOWNBURST/SEVERE HAIL POTENTIAL WILL EXIST ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS INCLUDING PORTIONS OF EASTERN CO/FAR NORTHWEST KS AS
WELL AS WESTERN NEB INTO SOUTHERN SD. A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED AS MARGINAL BUOYANCY/VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT THE
OVERALL EXTENT/DURATION OF THE SEVERE RISK.

DISCUSSION...MUCH OF THE REGION IS UNDER THE SOUTH-PERIPHERAL
INFLUENCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SPREADING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND CANADIAN ROCKIES PER WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. STEADY LEE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT/SHARPENING HAS BEEN OCCURRING
TODAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IN TANDEM WITH A 1006 MB
SURFACE LOW CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHWEST SD/NORTHWEST NEB AT MID
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE INCREASED SINCE 1930-2000Z IN
VICINITY OF THIS LEE TROUGH ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN
CO...ALTHOUGH ADDITIONAL ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT MAY
OCCUR ACROSS WESTERN NEB TO NEAR THE SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHERN SD
THROUGH EARLY/MID EVENING.

BUOYANCY AND DEEP TROPOSPHERIC WIND SPEEDS ARE BOTH RELATIVELY
WEAK...HOWEVER FACTORS SUCH AS STEEP LAPSE RATES AND WINDS VEERING
WITH HEIGHT MAY RESULT IN SOME SEMI-SUSTAINED HIGH-BASED
STRUCTURES/BRIEF SUPERCELLS. GIVEN A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER
/35-50 F SFC TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS/ AND AN AMPLE DCAPE
ENVIRONMENT...ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS SEVERE HAIL WILL
BE POSSIBLE. A COOLING POST-SUNSET BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD EVENTUALLY
ACCOUNT FOR A WEAKENING TREND ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...ALTHOUGH TSTMS MAY PERSIST A BIT LONGER THIS EVENING ACROSS
NORTHERN NEB AND SOUTHERN SD WITH AID OF A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
JET/WARM ADVECTION REGIME.

..GUYER/MEAD.. 08/22/2012

ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...GLD...PUB...B OU...CYS...

LAT...LON 44110134 44229957 43719885 42759885 42000101 39510173
38240334 38920433 41970350 44110134

Categories:Severe Weather

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Isolated Damaging Winds CA/NV/AZ/UT

Posted by: tstormtime, 19:31 GMT le 22 août 2012

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1799 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1243 PM CDT WED AUG 22 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST CA/SOUTHERN NV TO NORTHWEST AZ/FAR SOUTHWEST UT CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 221743Z - 221945Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT SUMMARY...LOCALLY VERY HEAVY/PERSISTENT RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN...BUT ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS/MAINLY SUB-SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSI...

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Severe Weather Reports 8/21/12

Posted by: tstormtime, 00:58 GMT le 22 août 2012

Tornado reports- 1. tornado reported by county sheriff in Utah along Beaver/Lincoln county line. 2. Waterspouts briefly moved onshore near Beach City, Texas.

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MD 1795

Posted by: tstormtime, 04:05 GMT le 21 août 2012

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1795 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0950 PM CDT MON AUG 20 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NW TX AND SOUTH-PLAINS REGION. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 586... VALID 210250Z - 210415Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 586 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...REMAINDER WW MAY BE CLEARED BEHIND MCS MOVING SEWD 30-40 KT ACROSS SERN PANHANDLE AND SOUTH-PLAINS REGION. PRIND SVR THREAT HAS PEAKE...

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Just a small town girl. Livin' in a lonely world. Mostly just posting information from The Storm Prediction Center.

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