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Patchy Frost Tonight
Posted by: upweatherdog, 05:26 GMT le 30 juin 2010 +0
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Patchy Frost Tonight

1:23AM, Wednesday, June 3th, 2010

A large Canadian high pressure system over the western Great Lakes is bringing very cold and dry air southward from Canada. With clear skies and lighter winds, patchy frost is possible tonight and Wednesday night over the interior west and central U.P. A big warm-up is in store for Independence Day weekend with highs well into the 80s and plenty of humidity, along with a chance of thunderstorms. Looks like some tropical moisture from the remains of hurricane Alex may also get pulled into the Great Lakes, with a threat of heavy rainfall, however it is still to early to predict where and whether or not this will occur.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
930 PM EDT TUE JUN 29 2010

MIZ002-004-005-009>011-084-301100-
ONTONAGON-BARAGA-MARQUETTE-GOGEBIC-IRON-DICKINSON-
SOUTHERN HOUGHTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ONTONAGON...L`ANSE...GWINN...
MARQUETTE...IRONWOOD...IRON RIVER...IRON MOUNTAIN...KENTON...
SIDNAW
930 PM EDT TUE JUN 29 2010 /830 PM CDT TUE JUN 29 2010/

...PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE TONIGHT...

LOW TEMPERATURES LATE TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S
WELL INLAND AWAY FROM THE WARMING INFLUENCE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. PATCHY
FROST IS POSSIBLE WELL INLAND AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. ANY FROST THAT
DOES FORM WILL NOT LAST VERY LONG.

IF YOU HAVE ANY SENSITIVE PLANTS OUTSIDE THAT ARE SUSCEPTIBLE TO
FROST...SPRAYING THEM DOWN WITH WATER OR COVERING THEM TONIGHT WOULD HELP
PROTECT THEM FROM FROST DAMAGE.

$$

07
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Hot and Severe Weather.
Posted by: upweatherdog, 04:01 GMT le 17 juin 2010 +0
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Hot and Severe Weather

Saturday June 19th 2:00AM

Despite decent CAPE of around 2000 J/kg, LIs around -6, and strong shear, thunderstorms have failed to develop. Large thunderstorm complexes over the southern Great Lakes have disruppted moisture transport from the Gulf. Even with surface dewpoints in the 60s, the moist layer is shallow with dewpoints dropping off rapidly aloft, with much more drying than the models indicated. The ECMWF model hinted to this occuring a few days ago, and was right. In fact, I have not seen any ECMWF run so far this year that forecasted conditions ripe for thunderstorms; and the model was right. We really havn't been getting many thunderstorms this year with the persistent ridge aloft, and now the jetstream has shifted a bit further south giving us more precipitation but still keeping the best instability to the south. Anyway, the chances of thunderstorms tonight are waning with decreasing instability and drier air advecting in from the southwest.

Looking ahead, the Great Lakes will be in a warm advection regime early this week into next weekend. The ECMWF hints that the best thunderstorm development will likely occur to the south of the U.P this week, and then shift to the northwest of the area next weekend as a new ridge may try to build in. Impossible to pin down exactly what will occur in terms of thunderstorm development, but shortwaves over-topping the ridge over the Mississippi Valley should bring the chances of MCS development (and much needed rainfall) to most areas of the Great Lakes, but most likely greatest to our south.

Stay tuned for updates!

Friday June 18th 7:00PM

Today summer has finally made a comeback to the U.P with sunny skies and temperatures reaching into the upper 80s to near 90F. After a few thunderstorms over the northcentral U.P last night, today ended up to be a fairly sunny day.

With all the hot temperatures, you would think the airmass would be very unstable and primed for severe weather. However, dry air aloft has mixed to the surface resulting crashing dewpoints into the 40s, and very little CAPE, mostly around 250 J/kg. However, a Theata-E ridge is moving northeast from Wisconsin advecting in higher moisture and dewpoints in the 60s. CAPE is now between 500-1000 J/kg for the western two thirds of the U.P, and should reach around 2500-3000 J/kg later this evening over the central U.P. With strong shear and favorably curved hodographs, conditions are favorable for supercell thunderstorm development, and possibly a few tornados. Depending on how much instability is present, it is possible there could be a strong tornado. Strong winds aloft and high DCAPE will favor damaging winds as the main threat, with the best chance of damaging winds over the central U.P. As for hail threat, freezing levels are somewhat high, however there could very well be some large hail in the stronger storms due to the strong wind shear. It appears thunderstorms will develop later this evening near a line from Barage to Watersmeet, and move eastward through the late evening into tonight. Convective mode will initialy be supercellular, but will tend to transition to LEWP/bowing line structers as the thunderstorms progress eastward. Looks like the best chance of severe weather will be in the central U.P.

Stay tuned for updates!

Wednesday June 16th, 11:58PM

We have went from a hot and dry May to a cool and wet June. A strong southwesterly flow aloft has brought frequent storm systems through the Great Lakes bringing much needed rainfall since the beginning of June. Just last night some areas in the eastern U.P got 3 to 4 inches of rain, which just goes to show we have been dealing with many wet storm systems.

We will see a return to summer weather on Thursday as a warm, moist southerly flow sets up. Highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s will be common, with coolest readings over the east.

On Thursday night a warm front will move through bringing showers and thunderstorms. High CAPE around 2000-3000 J/kg over western Minnesota, coupled with lifted indices around -6, and plentiful moisture with high PWATs near the nose of the low level jet near the triple point and cold front will set off convection Thursday afternoon. Deep layer shear of 35-40kts will help support severe thunderstorms, with tornados possible due to high helicity values of 250+ and strong 700mb flow. These thunderstorms will form into one or two weakening thunderstorm complexes that will move eastward towards the U.P along the warm front at the nose of the low level jet. Severe weather potential looks limited even with 1000 J/kg of CAPE as deep layer shear over the upper Great Lakes will be rather weak, but with strong 700mb wind field, some thunderstorms may be able to channel some strong winds to the surface.

On Friday, the U.P will be firmly in the warm sector. Highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s will be common with strong southerly flow. It will also feel quite sticky with dewpoints in the 60s. We will also have a chance of severe thunderstorms with CAPE around 2000 to 3000 J/kg, lifted indices around -4 to -6, and bulk shear of 35-40kts. Computer models differ in terms of area of convective development. The NAM model brings a round of thunderstorms through in the morning with more thunderstorms developing in the afternoon over the southeastern U.P, keeping the west and central mostly dry. The GFS on the otherhand, develops thunderstorms over the western U.P and northwest Wisconsin, bringing a intense squall through the upper Great Lakes. The ECWMF is simialr to the NAM, but brings more drying to the western U.P. Looking at current trends between the NAM, RUC, and GFS, the GFS is matching the RUC than the NAM models. I will side with a compramise between the NAM and GFS.

Thunderstorms will likely develop in the afternoon near a line from L'Anse to Watersmeet. With strong 50kt westerly flow aloft, the thunderstorms will likely become of line of eastward moving bowing line segments. Additional more singular thunderstorm development will also occur along the lake Michigan lake breeze. With cold front and shear interacting with lake breezes, some low level rotation could occur in some storms and a weak tornado can't be ruled out, however, damaging winds and hail will be the main threat.

The storms will end Friday night, giving way to a warm and sunny weekend. Stay tuned for updates!

April 1st to June 20th Spring Outlook

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_____________________________________________________________________________________________
My Fishing Forecast

N/A

Da Fish and Trout Blog
________________________________________________________________________________________________

***Hazardous Weather Outlook***


________________________________________________________________________________________________

Todays weather from the NWS.


U.P NWS Forecast Area

U.P. radar image.


Surface map and radar


Severe weather risk and radar. Severe thunderstorm watches blue. Tornado watches red.


National Weather Service

Watch and warnings map.


SST (Sea Surface Temp) Data





Blocking Data





Michigan Snow Chaser

National Hurricane Center

Mesoscale Analysis

Storm Prediction Center

National Radar Image

Severe Thunderstorm Outlooks and Watches

NCEP Model Analysis and Forecasts

Numerical Forecast Models

Canada Operational Model Forecast

NCEP Model Grapics

Severe Weather Reports

Climate Prediction Data

WLUC TV6 News

U.P School Closings

Current Snow Depth

***County Burning Regulation Page***



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Updated: 05:42 GMT le 19 juin 2010   Permalink | A A A
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Gender:Male Age:16 Hobbies: Fishing, biking, pyrography, music, camping, crossfit, science experiments, blogging, skiing, gardening, and snowmobile.

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