Prediction Hurricane season 2012
My prediction for the year is 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 4 of those to be major.
EFFECTS OF EL NINO
Graph of the el nino models.
And the average of the dynamic models are as follows.
Average, dynamical models MJJ0.2 JJA0.4 JAS0.6 ASO0.7 SON0.8 OND0.8 NDJ0.8 DJF0.7
Because any variation of .5 degrees celcius is a nuetral stage, A weak el nino does not even form until August. When you account for the atmospheric "lag", the effect more than likely won't begin until October. This is why I only expect 14 storms because el nino will more than likely effect any late-season storms that try to get going. Yes, I said only 14! The rest of the conditions are favorable except the transition of the ENSO. So we would've had more storms.
EARLY SEASON FORMATION
Wow! Already two storms down. Alberto and Beryl have formed and gone. This though has no real bearings on what happens from today through November. What it does suggest though is that as we thought, we will have a fast start and 2012 has tied a record and the season started today!
NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION (NAO)
We are currently in a negative NAO phase moving slowly toward a positive one. Negative NAO is a weeker icelandic low and subtropical high. a positive is a stronger icelandic low and a stronger subtropical high. A positive is more conducive to landfalls.
Im calling for a slightly above average year.
Have a very happy Hurricane season.
Thanks for reading. My brain hurts.