Hurricane Jova a category 2 with winds of 100mph as set its' sights on western Mexico. Previously a 125mph cat 3 due to any EWRC (Eye Wall Replacement Cycle) she has weakened to a 2. Nonetheless, impacts would be the same even if she was a 3. Mudslides and flash flooding will be a heavy concern and strong winds as well. I hope everyone from Mexcico is taking Jova seriously. Jova at cat 3 Meanwhile Irwin is a 45mph tropical storm. He is expected to move east and eventually southward and dissipate. He could attribute to more flooding after jova but models now show him recurving back to the south and west.
Since the MJO is already back and starting to get stronger in the Atlantic, the carribean will start to get busy. I expect 2 to 3 storms in october and 1 to 2 in november before the season is out meaning i expect 19 to 21 named storms this season. Tracks should be west into mexico and central america or north north west north and north east over Hispanola, Cuba, Jamaica, Florida and East Gulf States.
2012 Hurricane Season: Although we are 8 months away from the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season, based on current enso and projected enso, if an el nino event does not form, this would mean another active atlantic. Also, we shall see if 2012 will be the year troughing stops off the east coast.. it has been in place since 2009 said a WSI meteorologist. Tracks like frances, Ivan, and Gustav tracks have stopped because its hard from the central atlantic to get something to hit the Gulf Coast States. We shall see what happens and everyone in Hurricane Jova's path, stay safe. wunderweatherman123