U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Coup d'œil sur la convection)

Day Three

acus01 kwns 290027 
Storm Prediction Center ac 290025 

Day 1 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0725 PM CDT Tuesday Jul 28 2015 

Valid 290100z - 291200z 

..there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms over the Central Plains and middle 
MS valley... 

..there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms from southwestern Kansas to the western Great 

Scattered thunderstorms will increase in areal coverage along a cold 
front from southern Iowa southwest into central Kansas this evening. 
Isolated large hail and damaging winds are possible. 

..Central Plains/middle MS valley... 

Have increased severe probs along cold front across portions of 
Kansas for expected increase in convection this evening. Latest visible 
imagery depicts deepening convection along the wind shift from southeastern 
Nebraska...southwestward to near sln. Short-range models suggest thunderstorms will 
increase in coverage along the cold front over the next few hours. 
Surface temperatures remain quite hot across central Kansas where it remains 
100f at sln. Gusty winds and even some hail may accompany this 
activity as it conglomerates and slowly sags southeastward. 

.Darrow.. 07/29/2015 

Mesoscale Discussion

acus11 kwns 290347 
sels mesoscale discussion 
Storm Prediction Center mesoscale discussion 290346 

Mesoscale discussion 1567 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
1046 PM CDT Tuesday Jul 28 2015 

Areas affected...southern Iowa through northern MO 

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 459... 

Valid 290346z - 290515z 

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 459 

Summary...severe threat will persist through 05z at which time ww 
459 will be allowed to expire due to anticipated weakening of 
storms. In the meantime a modest threat for mainly isolated damaging 
wind will persist from northern MO into southeastern Iowa. 

Discussion...mesoscale convective system continues developing southeastward through southern Iowa and northern 
MO. Most of the storms are developing on cool side of associated 
convective outflow boundary. In addition...the bowing segment with 
comma head over southeast Iowa has finally begun to weaken. These trends are 
indicative of increasing convective inhibition...which in addition 
to limited forcing associated with only a weak west-southwesterly low level jet suggest an 
overall weakening trend should persist. However...isolated strong 
wind gusts remain possible in the near term as activity continues 

.Dial.. 07/29/2015 

..please see www.Spc.NOAA.Gov for graphic product... 


Latitude...Lon 40279518 40629428 40789269 41459191 41349106 40719106 
40249199 40069302 40049384 39889490 40049536 40279518