U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Coup d'œil sur la convection)

Aujourd'hui
Demain
Day Three

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acus01 kwns 240510 
swody1 
Storm Prediction Center ac 240508 


Day 1 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
1208 am CDT Friday Oct 24 2014 


Valid 241200z - 251200z 


..no severe thunderstorm areas forecast... 


... 
a few weak thunderstorms are likely across far southern Florida 
including the Keys. 


..South Florida... 


Weak middle-level height falls will spread across the Florida Peninsula 
Friday ahead of digging short-wave trough. This feature should 
induce a surface wave along stalled frontal zone over the Florida Straits. 
Although northeasterly boundary-layer flow should hold across the 
peninsula...warm advection may prove sufficient in generating deep 
convection capable of penetrating levels necessary for lightning. 
While isolated thunderstorms may linger near the southern coast early in the 
period...primary threat for lightning should remain offshore. 


.Darrow/dial.. 10/24/2014 






Mesoscale Discussion


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acus11 kwns 151721 
sels mesoscale discussion 
Storm Prediction Center mesoscale discussion 151720 
paz000-mdz000-151945- 


Mesoscale discussion 1899 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
1220 PM CDT Wednesday Oct 15 2014 


Areas affected...central Maryland into southeastern PA 


Concerning...severe potential...watch unlikely 


Valid 151720z - 151945z 


Probability of watch issuance...20 percent 


Summary...an isolated strong wind gust or brief/weak tornado cannot 
be ruled out with storms as they develop northward from Maryland into southeastern PA. 


Discussion...an isolated strong cell with substantial vertical 
development continues to propagate northward along a north-S oriented boundary 
which extends into PA and links with an existing front across eastern PA 
which currently separates the more moist/unstable air to the southeast. 


This particular storm has had a persistent and broad circulation 
with it...but nothing particularly strong or tight probably due to 
weak low-level buoyancy/acceleration. While deep-layer flow is 
strong above the ground...most of the shear is relegated to the 
near-surface layer and other cells away from the outflow boundary 
have shown little if any shear. Therefore...any wind/tornados threat is 
expected to be brief...short-lived and isolated...and a watch is not 
expected. 


.Jewell/corfidi.. 10/15/2014 


..please see www.Spc.NOAA.Gov for graphic product... 


Attention...WFO...phi...ctp...lwx... 


Latitude...Lon 39157664 39007677 38987688 39067699 39267696 39617690 
40007679 40347640 40457615 40407593 40137594 39617620 
39157664