U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Coup d'œil sur la convection)

Aujourd'hui
Demain
Day Three

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swody1 
Storm Prediction Center ac 160041 


Day 1 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0741 PM CDT Tuesday Apr 15 2014 


Valid 160100z - 161200z 


..no severe thunderstorm areas forecast... 


... 
a few marginally severe wind gusts may occur this evening across 
portions of the eastern North Carolina and far eastern South 
Carolina. 


..ern NC/far eastern SC... 
Water vapor shows an upper-level trough moving across the southern 
Appalachian Mountains a band of strong large-scale ascent is moving into 
the Atlantic coastal plains. At the surface...a cold front is advancing 
eastward across eastern NC with a convective line ongoing along the front. 
Surface dewpoints ahead of the front are in the lower to middle 60s f with 
MUCAPE estimated around 500 j/kg. This along with 60 knots of 0-6 km 
shear and 40 knots of south-southwesterly flow just above the surface evident on the 
Morehead City WSR-88D vwp...may be enough for a marginal wind damage 
threat for a few more hours early this evening. The threat should 
diminish as the convective line moves eastward across Cape Hatteras in 
the 02z to 03z timeframe. 


.Broyles.. 04/16/2014 

Mesoscale Discussion


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acus11 kwns 152101 
sels mesoscale discussion 
Storm Prediction Center mesoscale discussion 152100 
ncz000-scz000-152300- 


Mesoscale discussion 0361 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0400 PM CDT Tuesday Apr 15 2014 


Areas affected...eastern SC and southeastern NC 


Concerning...severe potential...watch unlikely 


Valid 152100z - 152300z 


Probability of watch issuance...20 percent 


Summary...trends are being monitored as storms develop along an 
approaching cold front. However...a watch appears unlikely at this 
time. 


Discussion...surface map shows a low over northern SC ahead of the 
approaching upper vorticity maximum with outflow-enhanced cold front 
extending northeastward across NC and into southeastern Virginia. This front was surging 
southeastward quickly and will stabilize the air mass. The front continues 
southward across central SC and southeastern Georgia...where a line of thunderstorms was 
attempting to form. 


The storms are currently weak...and may remain so due to weak 
instability. However...persisting strong shear profiles could 
eventually result in a storm or two with stronger updrafts...and 
supercell characteristics at times. Trends will continue to be 
monitored for any uptrend...but a watch appears unlikely for such 
isolated and conditional potential. 


.Jewell/Hart.. 04/15/2014 


..please see www.Spc.NOAA.Gov for graphic product... 


Attention...WFO...akq...mhx...rah...ilm...chs...cae... 


Latitude...Lon 32877930 32338013 32368045 32658070 33138067 33698040 
34747986 35227950 36047830 36237746 36007656 35667622 
34657617 34487700 34157755 33777784 33717831 33587879 
33207907 32877930