Winter Forecast 2010-2011

By: Zachary Labe , 21:06 GMT le 11 septembre 2010

Winter Outlook 2010-2011...(December, January, February)

(South Mountain- 21 February 2010)

Ah, the sounds of shoveling and snow blowers in the early morning will soon become the norm as old man winter blows across the western hemisphere. After anomalous snowfall during the season of 2009-2010, a peak back at snowy years has quickly remerged in our short term memory banks. For those located along the I-95 corridor south of the Mason-Dixon line, historical odds show a near 1 in 200 chance of a another seasonal snowfall year such as the one before. For those north of that line, there have been several seasons which have featured snowier conditions than last season. None the less for many, the month of February will be one to tell the grandchildren after a series of low pressures matured off the eastern seaboard. The pattern was emphasized by a starkly negative NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation). The NAO is teleconnective value, which takes into account differing regions of air pressure in the northern Atlantic located near the Icelandic Low and Azores High Pressure. The strengths of these associated areas including positions affect the mean NAO throughout the entire year. As the polar jet begins to drop across the northern United States towards the winter months, the NAO has direct affects on long term wavelength patterns downstream dictating short term and long term weather patterns. Unfortunately the NAO is not able to be predicted accurately more than a two week period or so in advance, reducing its helpfulness it long term weather pattern predictions. But on occasions, trends are able to be noted to support possible long term NAO tendency predictions. More on this subject will be discussed below on implications for the upcoming winter.

Of other importance note is the SO (Southern Oscillation) status of the 2009-2010 winter, which remains completely polarized from this current time last year. The strong El Nino peaked around mid December with SST anomalies near +2C SD for Nino region 3.4. Counter affects globally have been evident through the past six months, as one of the strongest El Ninos on record continues to have residual effects. Planet Earth so far has been dominated by global temperatures peaking near the highest mean on record since records have been kept since 1979. But this is very common with strong El Ninos. 1998 featured the hottest year on record globally, again directly correlated to the anomalous and infamous El Nino of that year. While strong El Ninos are typical to bring warm temperatures surging throughout a plethora of the United States during the winter, the anomalous negative NAO allowed the warmth to stay suppressed. El Ninos often feature an active subtropical jet, so the combination of upstream blocking and moisture from the south created the catalyst for the record snowfall.

But Fall 2010 is in a complete disposition from last year at this time. It was evident last winter was going to be a very snowy year for the Middle Atlantic with the predominant negative NAO and active southern stream courtesy of the El Nino. Tides have quickly changed this year making this seasonal forecast quite unique. First let me begin with a quick summary on the average Middle Atlantic region winter...

An average winter in Pennsylvania consists of many different types of winter weather. Winters in Pennsylvania are more severe than middle Atlantic winters and Ohio valley winters, but less severe than neighboring New England winters. On average the first snowflakes fall in mid to late October in the northwestern part of the state. And the last snowflakes typically fall in the northwestern part of the state in early May. Frost season lasts from early October to mid May in most areas. The geographic regions of Pennsylvania play a major part in snow totals and temperatures.

("Courtesy of NOAA")
There are two regions of Pennsylvania that see significantly higher snow totals than the rest of the state. The Laurel Highlands and Northwest Mountains see snow totals well over 100inches every winter. In extreme winters snow may be on the ground into June with seasonal totals of over 200inches. The seasonal snow total record is held in Corry, Pennsylvania of 237inches. The monthly snow total record is held in Blue Knob, Pennsylvania with 96inches of snow. Corry is found in the northwest mountains and Blue Knob is a ski resort found in the Laurel Highlands. Blue Knob is the highest ski able mountain in Pennsylvania. Below is a map of average seasonal snow totals in Pennsylvania.

("Courtesy of NOAA")
Different types of winter storms affect the state of Pennsylvania, clipper systems, lake effect snow outbreaks, nor'easters, advection snows, and etc. The coldest month is typically January statewide. And the snowiest month statewide is typically February. Northwest Pennsylvania typically sees a majority of their snows in Lake Effect snow outbreaks. While eastern Pennsylvania sees most of their snows from coastal storms. When coastal storms come up the coast many areas in Pennsylvania can see major snowstorms. The Poconos typically see the most snow from coastal storms due to their elevation aid to precipitation totals. Some of the greatest storm total snowfall records are actually held in eastern Pennsylvania and not in the northwest Snowbelt regions. The highest average seasonal snow average is found in Corry, Pennsylvania with an average of 118inches. While the low seasonal snow total is found in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania with 21inches of snow. As far as temperatures go the coldest temperatures are found in the Alleghany Plateau region with the lowest temperature every recorded in Pennsylvania was in Smethport with -42degrees. Temperatures typically dip below freezing every day from November to March statewide. Extreme cold outbreaks typically occur around mid to late January. At times warm thaws may occur, but they are rare and sparse. As for ice storms they typically occur in December when the sun's rays are at their lowest. Very odd winter weather features occur each year including thunder snows, etc. and thunder snows are like thunderstorms but with snow instead of rain. Snow rates up to 5inches can occur. Thunder snows are mostly likely associated with frontal passages and lake effect snows. As far as winds, typically northwest winds setup on the coldest of winter days and can gust up to 50mph. Wind chills as low as -25degrees are felt almost at least once in the mountains of Pennsylvania. On average winds gust to 30mph several times each month. For ice on waterways, many northern lakes and rivers solidly freeze every winter. For southern areas ice forms every winter, but does not necessarily become very thick. During extreme winters even southern regions can see ice thicknesses of over a foot. The most extreme winter storms that affect Pennsylvania are nor'easters though. They affect large areas of the state with high winds and heavy precipitation. On rare occasions snow totals of over 35inches have occurred with snowdrifts as high as 6ft in many areas of eastern Pennsylvania. Winters in Pennsylvania overall are relatively severe, with geographic regions playing a major part in average snow totals and cold temperatures. Weather for parts of Maryland and Delaware could be considered a bit more uniform due to the size of the states. Maryland is a bit more varied thanks to some unique geographic features. Western Maryland particularly in Garret County is home to some extremely heavy snow thanks to its favorable upslope location allowing orographic lift to aid in heavy snow over the 2000ft+ elevations. Over 100inches of snow falls each year in parts of the county near popular resort areas such as Deep Creek. Heading east in Maryland crosses several large mountain ranges near the Cumberland Gap, the Potomac Highlands, and the Blue Ridge Mountains heading towards Hagerstown which sees a varied snowfall each season averaging around 30inches of snow less than that of most of southern Pennsylvania, excluding Philadelphia. Heading south and east towards Baltimore and Washington DC snowfall totals immensely fall off to averages from 15-20inches with similar numbers in Delaware. The palliating effects of warmth from the Atlantic allow for slightly low totals as they featured more mixed precipitation events.

I am going to dive right into the heart of the forecast this year, but likely the most difficult... the ENSO regime. For those not familiar, the ENSO is a measure of sea surface temperature anomalies in the equatorial Pacific in correlation with direct and indirect monsoon precipitation trends. These anomalies and patterns often feature global affects and are used in long term weather pattern predictions. La Ninas featured cooler than normal SST anomalies, while El Ninos featured warmer than normal SST anomalies.

("Courtesy of NOAA")
Global computer models had been indicating the reemergence of a strong La Nina for this upcoming Fall by about the beginning of summer. The CFS clearly indicated the threat, but such a dramatic swing from one of the strongest El Ninos on record to a strong La Nina seemed unusual and unlikely. Well SST began to cool through the summer, and by the middle of June they were at the standard deviation threshold for being classified as a La Nina. But it remained unofficial, as those readings must stand for at least three months to be classified. Well three months later and SST anomalies remain well below normal. In fact I am bold enough to signal these anomalies as reaching the minimum strong threshold. The current ONI (Oceanic Nino Index) has already reached a JJA (June, July, August) reading of (-0.6) The ONI index is a general mean of the Nino region 3.4 sea surface temperatures. It is my favorite indicator to keep track of the ENSO status. For data back to 1950... Link. Interestingly enough referencing several strong La Ninas such as 2007-2008 already shows this current La Nina stronger at this date than those years.

Strong La Nina years for a JJA ONI Mean...
2007- (-0.4)
2000- (-0.4)
1954- (-0.8)
1950- (-0.8)

(Keep these years in the back of your mind). Dramatic swings in SST anomalies are difficult to note and few years remain similar. In fact what remains unique about this La Nina is actually the location. A weak westerly wind burst has actually favored a slight rise in sea surface temperatures on the western end of the measured equatorial Pacific regime. Currently the lower SSTs remain east based, and this appears to be making for an easterly based strong La Nina. What does this mean? Well essentially many are familiar hearing about the west-based El Nino of last winter. This helped to cause direct influences on the local weather patterns in the western hemisphere. But an east based ENSO event typically has slightly fewer influences being dispositional. Still though a strong La Nina will be a dominate player in the upcoming winter. What makes the forecast difficult is there are zero analogs that correspond to this year’s SST anomaly SST depressions. A few matches to 1950-1951 and 1954-1955 emerge, but that is all.

So first check is strong La Nina, but the most important driver in the winter regime is the highly variable teleconnective indices. First off, it is important to note the PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) has resurged back down to negative values. This index monitors SST anomalies in the northern Pacific and can be closely followed based on 10-year trends. I had recent ideas that the PDO was beginning to show signs to tip to positive starting last fall, which it did courtesy of the El Nino. But now with it surging negative again, it is clear the decadal negative cycle has yet to end. A negative PDO is often associated with a warmer pattern for the central and eastern United States with cooler conditions to the west. It is closely in correspondence with the shorter term PNA (Pacific/North American Oscillation). Another teleconnection already mentioned is the NAO, which again is all interconnected with the other indices. Through most of the summer the PNA and NAO have been steady excluding an early August hiccup...



They have clearly pointed to a positive PNA and negative NAO regime. In winter, this would lean towards troughing over the east coast and ridging over the west coast of the United States. But during the summer, these teleconnections have a much less influence on the global wavelength pattern and therefore go unnoticed. It remains clear that the NAO generally remains dominated negatively. Last year in fact it reached the lowest negative reading in nearly fifty years during December and early January; this coupled with the United Kingdom featuring one of their coldest winters in nearly 30 years. While many say forecasting the NAO is highly impossible, I do feel there are a few important trends that can be detected. I have been monitoring monsoonal patterns in the Indian Ocean along with the AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) and have noted possible correlations to a continued negative NAO regime. I do believe the NAO will feature a general upswing pattern though by the end of December. While short swings to negative and positive and vice versa are possible... my general NAO forecast is...

December- (-1SD)
January- (-+0SD)
February- (+1.5SD)

This being said, I do not think the NAO will reach any negative anomaly such as that of last winter. Still, the NAO may be the saving grace for snowfall in the Middle Atlantic during favored wavelength periods. Also the AO (Arctic Oscillation) is another player and again has generally been negative to neutral through most of the Summer. I expect this continue through much of the winter. Recent satellite images and statistics continue to show increasing cooler temperatures in that region along with end to the rapid dwindling sea ice levels.

("Couresty of NSIDC)

As noted above, sea ice levels are relatively close to last years at this time and continue to remain higher than the record lows of 2007 and 2008. A continued upswing in levels is likely as the negative AO remains imminent for the next week or more. Eurasia snow levels also continue to remain near normal values and nothing of any worth noting. Same for Canadian snow levels, which are beginning to recover after a record low during this past winter and summer. Cooler air courtesy of the negative AO weather patterns have allowed for recent snowfall in the northern portions of that region. ECMWF and GFS guidance continue to indicate cooler than normal temperatures in this region, which will continue to aid in a building snowpack.

Of important and controversial note remains the solar field. Low sun spot cycle 21 continues to plague astronomers and climatologists on residual effects on planet Earth. The topic remains highly controversial as some completely disagree in any affects on global temperatures. But excluding the strong El Nino this summer, which allowed global temperatures to surge, the general global trend has been about a (-0.2)-(-0.4)C drop in global statosphere temperatures for this past decade under the extremely low sunspot regime. Activity continues to remain dull, with very little to no sunspot reports daily. My personal opinion remains that sunspots do affect climate globally. The sun is the catalyst for weather and energizes the Earth along with heat from the inner core. Any change in the solar output of the sun is bound to have some type of effect on the Earth's weather. The sunspot minima also argues against finding any analog with a strong La Nina coupled right after a strong El Nino. This will likely for tail some interesting weather patterns.

("Courtesy of SpaceWeather")

Global models continue to indicate a variable pattern through the winter with ECMWF monthly reports showing near normal precipitation and near normal temperatures for the three meteorological winter months. The CFS model also remains similar showing cooler conditions during the first half of winter followed by a warming trend towards February. It is though interesting to note, the CFS shows a definite favorability towards continued Greendland Blocking (negative NAO) and higher thermal heights over the western United States.

("Courtesy of NOAA")

Finally I just wanted to point out that I have been recently following GFS verification charts closely. As many already know, the GFS underwent a recent major upgrade increasing resolution, parameter boundaries, etc. The model has actually been performing quite well during the past weeks, especially in the tropics often outperforming the ECMWF. Recently for weather patterns across the Middle Atlantic, the convective feedback QPF problems have been eliminated and the model does not produce as many outrageous 384hr solutions. But please note... it does contain a WARM bias after 180hrs. Unlike the previous GFS, the updated GFS now as a warm long term bias instead of a cold bias.

So what does all of this information mean? Well it portrays the volatility of this upcoming winter season at its best. We have a strengthening east-based La Nina coupled with a negative NAO regime in a sunspot minima decade. Analogs are in relative inexistence this season, so global patterns will play the major role in the forecast. La Ninas often feature mild and sometimes very dry winters for the Middle Atlantic. In recent memory La Ninas have caused some very poor snowfall department winters especially along I-95. My forecast for this winter 2010-2011 will maintain an interesting and slightly uncertain approach.

Temperature Monthly Anomalies...
December- (+0.4F)
January- (+1.1F)
February- (+1.5F)

Snowfall Monthly Anomalies...
December- (115% of normal)
January- (90% of normal)
February- (45% of normal)

I am forecasting a very mild winter, especially towards the later half as the La Nina and pesky GOA (Gulf of Alaska) low undergo troughing over the western United States. But the negative NAO regime may allow for periods of snowy weather, especially in late November and December. The biggest question remains on how dry the weather pattern will be. The east-based La Nina tends to leave me to believe that we will avoid the normal La Nina dry spell for the most part, but this remains uncertain. I also believe there will be periods of severe arctic blasts, especially across the central northern Plains, which will likely average below to well below normal. The negative AO will offer these cold blasts, and they will modify moving eastward. This will allow for likely at least 2-3 one week periods in the Middle Atlantic this winter for very cold weather and near record lows at times. It is often common in La Nina patterns to receive this cold blasts behind storm systems that track through the Ohio Valley. But in general warmer patterns will prevail between the colder outbreaks. I am taking a variable storm track forecast this year with no preferred location. The pattern will be hostile and active with great temperature contrasts. Yes there will also be a dominate southeast ridge. The strength of this southeast ridging will determine the snowfall placements northwest of the low pressures along the east coast. I also believe it is possible to see a dramatic upswing in snowfall totals from the Mason-Dixon line on northward with dramatically lower totals to the south. For more information see winter of 2000-2001. The threat of several mix precipitation and ice storms remains higher than normal this year and will likely be featured several times this winter under cold air damming scenarios. All in all a general La Nina winter is likely courtesy of the anomalous strength already this early in the Fall. But important to note is the NAO and easterly placement of the SST deviations. This may allow the winter not too be a total disaster for many areas. For those expecting a record breaking winter, it is not likely for areas in the Middle Atlantic. New England may do fairly well, especially in northern portions which escaped the brunt of last winter. As always I will be busy posting away throughout the entire winter. My college application process is just about done, so I will finally begin to have some more free time just in time for my favorite weather season. Keep in mind out of my three winter outlooks, this one has the lowest confidence levels. So far the other three turned out well, so we shall see. As usual a verification blog will be posted at the end of the meteorological winter in February.

"Here north of Harrisburg 2010 statistics"
(Severe Weather Stats...)
Severe Thunderstorm Watches- 12
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings- 10
Tornado Watches- 2
Tornado Warnings- 1
Total Thunderstorms- 18

(Precipitation Stats...)
Flood Watches- 4
Flood Warnings- 4
Monthly Precipitation- 3.10inches
Yearly Precipitation- 29.64inches

(Temperature Stats...)
Heat Advisories- 5
Excessive Heat Watches- 1
Excessive Heat Warnings- 1
90degree days- 38
Highest Temperature 101F (x2)

For the final section, I thought it would be interesting to post some archived maps of the four major nor'easters of our last winter from Penn State Meteo. EWall...
December 19, 2009...

February 6, 2010...

February 10, 2010...

February 26, 2010...

And finally time for the newly annual frost/freeze game! I will keep track of everyone's guess and post them on the blog. Then as each freeze event occurs we will look at who is the closest. When making your prediction please post the city and forecast date for the, at or below 32degree reading. Here are the following Middle Atlantic cities to make your predictions...

KTHV (York-Thomasville, PA)...
Tazmanian- October 7
Blizzard92- October 11
Wunderstorm87- October 15
TheRaspberryPatch - October 17

KMDT (Harrisburg-Middletown, PA)...
Tazmanian- October 7
Blizzard92- October 13
TheRaspberryPatch - October 16
Wunderstorm87- October 18

KBFD (Bradford, PA)...
Blizzard92- September 20
Wunderstorm87- September 27
TheRaspberryPatch - October 1
Tazmanian- October 12th

KPIT (Pittsburgh, PA)...
Blizzard92- September 21
Wunderstorm87- October 1
TheRaspberryPatch - October 3
Tazmanian- October 10th

KPHL (Philadelphia, PA)...
TheRaspberryPatch - October 22
Blizzard92- October 30
Wunderstorm87- November 4
Tazmanian- November 5th

KIAD (Dulles International-Washington, DC)...
TheRaspberryPatch - October 17
Blizzard92- November 1
Wunderstorm87- November 5
Tazmanian- November 5th

KHGR (Hagerstown, MD)...
Blizzard92- October 9
TheRaspberryPatch - October 11
Wunderstorm87- October 15

KBWI (Baltimore, MD)...
TheRaspberryPatch- October 17
Wunderstorm87- October 23
Blizzard92- October 25
Tazmanian- Oct 26th

KILG (Wilmington, DE)...
weathergeek5- October 22
Tazmanian- October 25th
TheRaspberryPatch - October 28
Blizzard92- October 30
Wunderstorm87- November 5

KSBY (Salisbury, MD)...
TheRaspberryPatch - November 4
Blizzard92- November 12
Tazmanian- November 12th
Wunderstorm87- November 23

KHGR (Hagerstown, MD)...
Blizzard92- October 9
TheRaspberryPatch - October 11
Wunderstorm87- October 15
Tazmanian- October 17th

"National Radar"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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161. Stormfront
01:49 GMT le 27 septembre 2010
Just read you winter 2010-2011 forcast blog, Bliz....Great reasearch and input. Proud of you!
Member Since: 31 décembre 1969 Posts: Comments:
159. wunderstorm87
17:57 GMT le 26 septembre 2010
Quoting P451:

Are we in a drought to deluge to drought pattern for the next few years? I hope not.

Two summers ago it was cold and wet until August. Ruined a lot of landscaping and vegetable gardening. This summer it was hot and dry all summer also ruining a lot of things.

What happened to balance? I know here we go through stormy and then calm periods but not of these lengths.

I'm no climatology expert by any means...but I'd have to think the El Nino and La Nina patterns the last couple years is likely the cause of these precipitation (and temperature) extremes.

As for our chance of getting a significant amount of rain in the short to medium term...the models don't seem to want to agree on a location for this trough after Wednesday...some have it well off the coast (ECMWF)...others have it well inland (NAM). The GFS is somewhere in the middle, leaving central PA dry but having fairly significant rain impact parts of NJ, DE, MD, and VA for Thursday/Thursday Night. Either way...this rain event should mitigate the month to date precipitation deficit for most of the Mid-Atlantic. I'm sure Blizz will have more about this in his new blog.
Member Since: 31 décembre 1969 Posts: Comments:
157. pittsburghnurse
11:28 GMT le 26 septembre 2010
Need a killing frost... killing for the stink bugs that is.
Member Since: 31 décembre 1969 Posts: Comments:
156. wunderstorm87
05:19 GMT le 26 septembre 2010
P451- That's a really interesting & slightly more detailed map. It's much easier than skipping from the different RFCs.

Here's a drought forecast graphic I found from the CPC:

I'm not sure how good these have verified in the forecasts this far in advance should be taken real serious due to the degree of uncertainty.
Member Since: 31 décembre 1969 Posts: Comments:
154. originalLT
02:22 GMT le 26 septembre 2010
Nice map, very interesting. Mother Nature usually has a way of equalizing things over time. Maybe we are heading for some wetter times soon. Had a high today at my house here in Stamford CT. of 88.5F!
Member Since: 31 décembre 1969 Posts: Comments:
153. TheF1Man
22:53 GMT le 25 septembre 2010
Wow cool thanks for posting that! i figured it would be much more but that's still pretty dry across the northeast in general
Member Since: 31 décembre 1969 Posts: Comments:
152. wunderstorm87
22:32 GMT le 25 septembre 2010
Quoting TheF1Man:
Was 80 at 9 am this morning here in springfield. Very humid yesterday. we could really really use a monsoon right now. anyone have a ballpark number for the deficit?

Looks like about 3-4" over the past 60 days for the Springfield area.

You can select a different date range on this site:
Member Since: 31 décembre 1969 Posts: Comments:
151. TheF1Man
20:50 GMT le 25 septembre 2010
Was 80 at 9 am this morning here in springfield. Very humid yesterday. we could really really use a monsoon right now. anyone have a ballpark number for the deficit?
Member Since: 31 décembre 1969 Posts: Comments:
67F for my low last night, pretty warm.
Member Since: 31 décembre 1969 Posts: Comments:
I never thought I'd see a temperature of 82F at 11pm in late September. Unseasonably warm would be an understatement at this point. That's even warm for a summer temperature at this time of the day.
Member Since: 31 décembre 1969 Posts: Comments:
Some are still without power in the South Hills region from the small but powerful thunderstorm that came through here on Wednesday. They are hoping to be restored by Sunday. It was straight line winds alright.
Member Since: 31 décembre 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting cchamp6:
Good morning Blizz,

I have a local Ct. met talking about a tropical system coming up the coast next friday and saturday. I know its early and the storm has just formed. I would love to get your thoughts and your prediction on this. I have a 2 day golf tournament friday and saturday. Please give me dry weather.

Well models are backing off big time on the rainfall like I had that. But I will try to gather a blog together this weekend for next week.
Member Since: 31 décembre 1969 Posts: Comments:
Good morning Blizz,

I have a local Ct. met talking about a tropical system coming up the coast next friday and saturday. I know its early and the storm has just formed. I would love to get your thoughts and your prediction on this. I have a 2 day golf tournament friday and saturday. Please give me dry weather.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting originalLT:
Blizz, this heavy rain possibility for next week, does this have any tropical connection?

Earlier models runs did show a potential tropical surge of moisture, but 0z runs backed off big time. We shall wait and see I suppose.
Member Since: 31 décembre 1969 Posts: Comments:
Blizz, this heavy rain possibility for next week, does this have any tropical connection?
Member Since: 31 décembre 1969 Posts: Comments:
@Beachfoxx and surfmom - Thanks :) The waves were bigger than I expected.
Member Since: 31 décembre 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting TheRasberryPatch:
Blizz - from the WU forecast it doesn't appear the front tomorrow will have any moisture with it when it crosses our area. also, looking at the forecast for next week there is a chance of rain for a few days....what is coming?

That is the cutoff low I mentioned that was possible. It is possible that a heavy rain potential exists next week. I will post a new blog this weekend.
Member Since: 31 décembre 1969 Posts: Comments:
Blizz - from the WU forecast it doesn't appear the front tomorrow will have any moisture with it when it crosses our area. also, looking at the forecast for next week there is a chance of rain for a few days....what is coming?
Member Since: 31 décembre 1969 Posts: Comments:
136. zotty
Hey Blizz- dewpoint only 59 here...
Member Since: 31 décembre 1969 Posts: Comments:
135. zotty
pittsburghnurse- i had no idea the weather was that bad out there! glad you have power again...

Was in NYC last night for dinner- left the city for westchester around 8:30. like many others I saw a TON of lightening, but it never rained too hard. got home and there were branches down all over (I just took down 6 trees last week, maybe just in time), and leaves were everywhere. Is that a hail signature? By the time I got home the storms had past...
Member Since: 31 décembre 1969 Posts: Comments:
Ugh, I hate this weather... 72F dewpoint, ugh!
Member Since: 31 décembre 1969 Posts: Comments:
This is an incredible but sad news story that was in the New York Post yesterday about the man that tried to save 2 people stuck in a car after last week's tornado in Queens knocked a tree down on top of them.
Member Since: 31 décembre 1969 Posts: Comments:
Not much of rain here. 0.04"

Jupiter was very bright last night. Using binoculars I actually saw one moon. With our moon so bright I don't know if I could see anymore of Jupiter's moons
Member Since: 31 décembre 1969 Posts: Comments:
Power just came on here more than 12 hours after storms pummeled their way through. Trees down, roofs damaged. Lots of debris. People around here headed for the basement. A church steeple was knocked down through the roof onto someone's desk. What came through here? Just straight line winds? It was around 1630 when it turned black and lightning was constant. Rain blew sideways. I found my watering can 5 houses down the street. It was a muggy uncomfortable night without power. Glad it's back on.
Member Since: 31 décembre 1969 Posts: Comments:
Had vivid lightning by me to, lost power for a few seconds, not much wind, Had 0.28" of rain. LT Stamford CT.
Member Since: 31 décembre 1969 Posts: Comments:
Wow what a lightning show out there!!! Such vivid lightning!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
thanks Blizz
Member Since: 31 décembre 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting TheRasberryPatch:
Blizz - it was very warm today. Should I be on the lookout tomorrow? Thursday? Sounds like you don't expect the front on Friday to be convective. Is the storms today from the line that went through Michigan that caused a lot of damage?

Tomorrow will be dry, no precipitation. Yep the same front in Michigan moved through here today. Friday is a very similar setup, so it will need to be watched...
Member Since: 31 décembre 1969 Posts: Comments:
Blizz - it was very warm today. Should I be on the lookout tomorrow? Thursday? Sounds like you don't expect the front on Friday to be convective. Is the storms today from the line that went through Michigan that caused a lot of damage?
Member Since: 31 décembre 1969 Posts: Comments:
goofyrider- Interesting, thanks for keeping us updated!
Member Since: 31 décembre 1969 Posts: Comments:
Keep ya'll posted P

2-3 ft waves ... looks like the peak of 4-5 ft Sun was it.

Rainfall in Labrador/Newfoundland varied from 110 -227+ mm.
My guess is that the 6-8+ in of rain in or equal to the 100 year precip. or the beginning of the transition to the PMP. The problems with the the washouts, bridge failures etc., in Labrador/Newfoundland with Earl and Igor are easily reproduced here.

Remember we we told by our local news reports that their lakes would easily handle the resulting runoff.

Listening to radio reports from the towns declaring a state of emergency, these consisted of flooded basements, road washouts, bridge failures, causeway failures, sewer lines lost, sewer backups into homes, water supply lines broken, and trees down with the requisite loss of power.

While the communities are for the most part small in population and accustomed to fending for themselves, the nature of the infrastructure failures are significant. An example of a washout is in Doc M's blog tonight.

It has been a long time since the Lackawanna valley has seen the impacts of this kind of precip. The simple answer is that in the time since the last episode in 1959, new development will increase the runoff, stream obstructions like culverts and bridges, and road construction with inadequate drainage will fail from either overtopping, seepage and/ or scour.. Like the impacts we will see in Canada it is more than likely that it will occur close to home for similar storms.

Check the development standards for your towns , counties and states for requirements for capacity of dams, culverts, bridges, road drainage. The problem is debris flow and resultant blockage of intake structures, inadequate structures, channel capacity, precip. intensity and changes in upland runoff.

Or you can wait around to see if it happens. Wait times will vary.

NB: PM=Probable Maximum Precipation

ex Patterson NJ 19 " in 24 hrs. In 1909 i think the records show two 18-19 in rainfalls in 24 hrs?

Member Since: 31 décembre 1969 Posts: Comments:
TheRasberryPatch- Yep, they will be very mild and humid. Friday will be in the lower 90s, possibly up to 94F in spots. Also a cold front will move through Friday night, but model QPF is low. Still a strong thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out. Very August like weather pattern this week.
Member Since: 31 décembre 1969 Posts: Comments:
I got a bit of rain so far, but not much as in severe storms. The storms have sandwiched me. There is one just to my south moving east as we speak

I wonder if Blizz is around and knows if tomorrow and Friday will be similar.
Member Since: 31 décembre 1969 Posts: Comments:
Nothing here, just .01in of rain and some distant thunder. I admit I was caught way off guard today at the intensity and coverage of the storms. To be honest, the shear levels were very unimpressive...
Member Since: 31 décembre 1969 Posts: Comments:
I don't understand why the SPC didn't have us under a slight risk until this they have us under a 30% risk for damaging wind. The State College AFD has been mentioning the possibility of severe thunderstorms for a few days now.

That one supercell south of Williamsport seems to be particularly nasty...and it was warned for a tornado about an hour ago, but no confirmation.
Member Since: 31 décembre 1969 Posts: Comments:
Where did the pop ups come from? I don't recall seeing a chance of severe storms in the area in the forecast for today. was the NWS caught off guard that much? ridiculous
Member Since: 31 décembre 1969 Posts: Comments:
Blizz looks like you just had a little shower. There is a more important line of showers to your W- WNW, do you think they will hold together as they travel across PA?
Member Since: 31 décembre 1969 Posts: Comments:
Thanks Goofyrider for the Alert
Thanks Big Hoynieva for a look at Igor waves up North

Wowza -- that was definitely a Big dog day -- couldn't even fathom paddling out through those breakers. wondered what the water temps were..... being an old NYC girl - it was also kinda fun looking at old stomping grounds -- didn't surf back then... what was I thinking....LOL
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