This is the official blog for Bryan Norcross, Hurricane Specialist at The Weather Channel.
By: Bryan Norcross, 20:31 GMT le 30 août 2016
Tropical Depression #9 is hanging in and still expected to intensify into a tropical storm. All the threats remain for Florida from Tallahassee to Tampa to Jacksonville on Thursday into Friday – some flooding rain, power out from wind, storm surge flooding along the coast, and the possibility of some tornadoes. Heavy rain is also possible south of that triangle.
But with Labor Day weekend coming up, it is worth looking ahead, especially since our best m...
Updated: 21:26 GMT le 30 août 2016
By: Bryan Norcross, 20:28 GMT le 25 août 2016
Two good things happened this afternoon: #99-L has weakened dramatically and the models show a weaker system when it gets to Florida.
So where does that leave us? The system still has a large circulation with well-defined spin. But unfavorable upper-level winds and a dry atmosphere have killed off the thunderstorms that were even remotely related to the center, which have to develop and be sustained if the storm is going to strengthen.
Updated: 21:04 GMT le 25 août 2016
By: Bryan Norcross, 16:12 GMT le 25 août 2016
So how much do we want to believe modern science? If the science is right, a storm is coming to South Florida on Sunday and will be a threat somewhere on the Gulf coast next week.
This is a tricky one because the tropical blob that’s down at the bottom end of the Bahamas is going to continue to look ugly at least through tomorrow. In fact, it’s so disorganized that it doesn’t qualify for a cone or even a Tropical Storm Watch. So it’s going to b...
By: Bryan Norcross, 22:43 GMT le 24 août 2016
Nothing is getting easier with the tropical system centered down near Puerto Rico. On one hand, it is showing no signs of organizing. On the other, the models still insist there is some chance of a disruptive system approaching or near South Florida over the weekend.
Yesterday I said that the system would have to develop today or it would have a hard time getting very strong. And good news, the system did not develop. In fact, if anything, it became...
By: Bryan Norcross, 03:14 GMT le 24 août 2016
Have you noticed that weather reporting has become like political coverage? It’s the Trump model versus the Clinton model. And just like most political coverage these days, it misses the main point.
The bottom line: In South Florida it’s time to get ready to get ready. There is some reasonable chance that preparations will begin as early as Friday for a storm over the weekend. If a storm develops, the odds are it will head toward the Gulf.