U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Coup d'œil sur la convection)

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Day Three

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Day 1 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0131 PM CST Tue Dec 06 2016 


Valid 062000z - 071200z 


..no severe thunderstorm areas forecast... 


... 
scattered thunderstorms will affect parts of central and southern 
Florida this afternoon and early evening. 


... 
The only appreciable change to the prior outlook is to remove 
low-thunderstorm probabilities from the Carolinas vicinity. 
Water-vapor imagery shows a dry-air intrusion wrapping around a 
shortwave trough over the southeastern states. The mid-level dry 
air and implied subsidence will probably prove detrimental to 
thunderstorm activity over the Carolinas this afternoon. Farther 
south, the 10-percent thunder line has been moved to be coincident 
with the northwestern edge of ongoing storm activity over the 
central portion of the Florida Peninsula. 


.Smith.. 12/06/2016 


Previous discussion... /issued 1017 am CST Tuesday Dec 06 2016/ 


..central Florida... 
A vigorous mid-level shortwave trough is tracking northeastward 
across the Tennessee Valley and into the central Appalachians. An 
associated cold front will continue to sag southward across central 
FL, providing the focus for scattered showers and thunderstorms 
today. Ample low level moisture and at least marginal instability 
will be present ahead of the front, suggesting some risk of gusty 
winds in the strongest cells. However, weakening wind fields with 
time, limited low-level convergence, and the departing upper system 
suggest the overall severe threat is low. 


... 
Farther north, a cluster of showers and occasional thunderstorms 
will persist in vicinity of the cold pool near the upper trough 
axis. No severe storms are anticipated in this region. 


$$ 




Mesoscale Discussion


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Mesoscale discussion 1872 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0231 am CST Tuesday Dec 06 2016 


Areas affected...the Florida Panhandle...far southeastern Alabama...and 
southwest Georgia 


Concerning...Tornado Watch 516 


Valid 060831z - 061030z 


The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 516 continues. 


Summary...a threat of localized damaging wind gusts may be 
developing across western portions of the Tornado Watch along a cold 
front...with brief/weak tornado threat perhaps along the stationary 
front. 


Discussion...remote wind sensors indicate winds through about 850 mb 
have veered over the last few hours...resulting in mainly 
straight-line hodographs across the warm sector from the Florida 
Panhandle into far southern Georgia. A marginally unstable air mass 
remains south of the stationary front...with around 500 j/kg MUCAPE 
per sfcoa. 


Recent radar trends show some increase in storm coverage along the 
cold front from southeast Alabama into the Gulf of Mexico...although 
lightning has not been particularly frequent. As the upper trough 
continues east-northeastward...wind fields aloft will increase 
further. This could result in some uptick in wind threat...as mean 
winds increase. 


The stationary front will make little if any northward progress 
through early morning...with the main severe threat immediately along 
and south of it. A brief/weak tornado cannot be ruled out especially 
along this boundary where low-level shear will be augmented... 
however...stable surface air exists to the north which will minimize 
any tornado threat unless storms can maintain motions roughly along 
the front. 


.Jewell.. 12/06/2016 


..please see www.Spc.NOAA.Gov for graphic product... 


Attention...WFO...jax...tae... 


Latitude...Lon 29058695 30348613 31148580 31098466 31488349 31638275 
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